Member Info for HawaiifiveO

This was posted elsewhere concerning MTL, make a lot of sense, so does the 3p near term target - this is a great time to buy IMO.

MiningLamp

9 Feb '23 - 07:57 - 4310 of 4315

This seems incorrectly priced by the market, here is a example.

Chaarat Gold (Armenia based) production 62k oz gold, AISC $1376oz, debt $51m, £75m m/cap

Metals Exploration production 73k oz gold, AISC $1250oz, debt $81m, £32m m/cap

So MTL is valued under half that of Chaarat, has higher production, has lower AISC, but higher debt - however the debt position at MTL is dropping significantly.

It strikes me that MTL share price should be closer to 3p on a like for like basis - valuing the company at £60m right now.

At current levels the price is a steal.

According to the Q4 report they produced 513 oz and 401 oz of gold in Q3 and Q4 (subject to assay results) they needed to pay the royalty company 300oz in each quarter so why did they not pay ?

The fog around the real situation is a disgrace, and as for John Meyer of SP Angel saying Bradbury was a 'consummate professional' what a total joke.

It almost seems the whole episode has been manufactured, the lack of concise reasoning for the defaults is the clue.

It looks like this is a write off, someone will benefit but not the shareholders, I really hope I am wrong.

https://twitter.com/CondorGoldplc/status/1623731756431028224?s=20&t=-5bHG30nb-vFjd2yzsQ7oQ

Nothing offered under 250,000 shares, then they want .389p for 250,000 to 1.2m - over 1.2m to 2m it goes to .399p

It looks like something is brewing due to premiums being asked, most online retail brokers seem to be NT or at best only.

DYOR etc

Bell returned back into the UK early morning today, I would suggest around 2am-3am - it was interesting that he had tweeted a photo of the President of Congo making a speech at Indaba over the weekend, is this relevant ?

A update could come at anytime therefore, it also appears that the Elephant Oil IPO is now flagged for Friday 10th.

Interesting times.

I wondered if Bell went to Mining Indaba in South Africa instead of the Congo, it seems he was not in the Congo on Friday as he posted that on Sh@reprophets, around the same time the President of the Congo was at Mining Indaba as were Gecamines.

Bell posted a long diatribe on Sh@reprophets as TW seemed to have implied that the share price rise on Friday may have been a leak and RRR should have made a statement, Bell refuted this offering examples such as the stock may be seen by investors as oversold and all info on the Congo cash and Elephant Oil IPO was in the public domain.

Like others I have no idea, Bell did say in the same reply he would be unable to contact advisors until he returned home so no wonder there has not been any leaks on the Congo cash situation, it may be that Bell has simply moved the process a further step forward or has he finally delivered ?

It is not a time to be out IMO, so many balls juggling in the air which could drive a material re-rate.

So clearly Bell has been in the Congo, I suspect for some time, no wonder his tweeting went into overdrive during his stay, probably sitting around a hotel for many hours awaiting meetings.

The million dollar question, third time of asking, is has he achieved a result or not, who knows but one would suggest that he would have wanted to deliver some good news ahead of the AGM on Friday.

One lives in hope, all will be revealed in due course.

The 121 forum is a offshoot of the main Indaba Mining Event - they are inter linked, this is one of the largest mining events in the world held at the same time.

https://miningindaba.com/Exhibitor-list

ORR must have met the majors I mentioned, for what it is worth my bet is on a deal with African Barrack - Livesey used to be employed by Barrack remember, they also did that JV with Tembo Gold in Tanzania, then a £3m company and now a £30m+ company !

Another hint ....

'Stay tuned for more updates as we look towards the sold milestone.'

https://twitter.com/CondorGoldplc/status/1623019851118792706?s=20&t=yMucxiiM4AGMMKDJzow93g

Another tweet, this time on the main stage promoting...

https://twitter.com/OrioleResources/status/1622987390947102723?s=20&t=yMucxiiM4AGMMKDJzow93g

All the majors are there Barrack, Newmont, Anglo American, B2B Gold etc etc.

Buyers have been nibbling away through the day, not the best day on the markets however, am pretty sure the relevance of last evenings tweet has not been fully communicated to the investment community.

Make no mistake if they get a major mining group involved in Cameroon it will be a game changer for the company, the days of penal dilution will be long gone as will the current feeble £3.5m market valuation.

Days like this is the time to buy, near term it is only a matter of time before some P&D crew arrive, last two times they took the stock well into the .20p's.

DYOR etc

In all seriousness it does seem they have finally accepted the obvious situation that a £3.5m company does not have the resources to cover the costs of exploring a licence package in Cameroon covering 4000 sq km's.

In my view this about turn is significant, it was not so long ago Livesey suggested they did not want to give away their near 100% interest in Cameroon at such an early stage - clearly the inability to raise cash without significant dilution has been a game changer.

It would be inconceivable in my view they would come back from SA without some form of a deal, if, as they say, they have spoken to 14 potential JV partners in the 1st day of the exhibition these entities would be aware of the interest of others, as a result the fear of missing out on such a opportunity (with Oriole) would mean prospective partners would not dither in making a decision/offer.

This news is probably enough to make many hit the buy button, and why not, a JV would stop dilution and potentially enable ORR to receive a up front cash payment to cover their early costs - this could amount to £3m-£5m.

Tomorrow will be a interesting day for the shares, only close followers will be aware of today's tweet.

It's the first time I can recall they have been so specific, i.e. number of meetings and reason for them, namely seeking a JV partner for Cameroon - it is encouraging to say the least, finally the penny seems to have dropped !

Confirmation they are finally seeking a major company to JV with in Cameroon - they say they have had 14 meetings so far at the mining event.

https://twitter.com/OrioleResources/status/1622630063085592580?s=20&t=ZqXDD0iVhXUCXQsghzQwEw

For what is worth I think RRR is on for a decent move up, it seems many juniors are re-rating even without news, we know there is a significant amount of news in the bank at Red Rock, the shares were trading around 0.70p this time last year and 1.3p in February 2021.

No-one knows where Bell is except Helpful and his chums, by the look of his numerous tweets I still suggest he is abroad, what we know is he will be attending the AGM on Friday, if so and he is abroad, then there must be some announcement due on the Congo situation beforehand.

It remains to be seen if Elephant Oil will IPO on the 9th as telegraphed, it has been continually delayed, maybe this time it will actually happen, the fact the company has been added to the Nasdaq website is promising.

https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/ipos/overview?dealId=1164147-102522

Trading is the stock seems irregular, with larger trades going through and reported late over a number of sessions now.

This will re-rate make no mistake, my bet is the recent RNS has not delivered the share price appreciation expected because of short term traders taking profit form positions bought around 1p in November.

The free float is so small that tiny volumes of buying propels the stock disproportionally, I expect 2p to be breached shortly, possibly on the next gold price bounce, the gold price consensus opinion remains exceptionally bullish.

If MTL continue to deliver (and why not) I see the share price finishing the year IRO 5p/6p - every $25m off the debt is worth circa 1.25p onto to share price.

DYOR etc

Winnifroth has written a piece today on Red Rock, it seems he never sold his shares after all. The suggestion is waht we know already, I do not have access but I bet the 'rumours' he refers to are money from the Congo and the Elephant Oil listing bout to come to fruition in one way or another.

https://tinyurl.com/yc4pshzt

The other possible share price driver is the Lithium project which is designed to deliver cash in the RRR coffers.

There have been a number of re-rates of what one would call 'dog' stocks recently, the most obvious being VAST, up 350%, maybe RRR is next - the key is RRR starts from a very low base (£3.5m m/cap) so the % gain could be strong IF something materialises.

BTW Bell has gone quiet on Twitter.

I bookmarked a link to an SP Angel broker note prepared in 2020, it had a target price of £1.02p, talked about toll mining, at the time the share price was 44p, also very convincing charts to show Condor as low valued to peers.

https://www.resource-capital.ch/fileadmin/news/Condor_Gold_Plc/2020_EN/May_2020_SPAngel_Research_Condor_Initiation_May_2020.pdf

Who would have thought Child & Co would put the assets up for sale with a share price of 15p, such is their failure, gross incompetence IMO, the lack of buying and silence from the company indicates, to me at least, offers are near to non existent or at best too low to be serious.

The other angle, not been discussed before, is the cost of putting the project up for sale, my bet is once Hannam have had their cut and other city cronies taken fees it could easily amount to £1m - if nothing comes of the sale then that is money down the drain.

Some form of update needs to be forthcoming, a simple RNS suggesting the level of interest and timeline would suffice, as mentioned it will be in Child's interest to string the process out for as long as possible, the fact he mentioned he talked to some Crypto outfit about funding around Christmas may be a clue as to how the sale process is going.

The team are off to South Africa - just announced, they go there every year, it never comes to anything, never any corporate action - just a nice jaunt for the BOD, you could even say a ego trip, never mind the share price.

Flights, hotel, expenses, cost of attendance for 3 or 4 - must be close to £15k.

https://twitter.com/Investinmining/status/1621282312607469570?s=20&t=cym9oqdHNtGvDXZt1Ffcpw