Member Info for harel

Cheering 10 times a day every time price goes down just because you wish to buy cheeper when 99% of the readers are in with big losses is annoying and unsensative.
Every body understand your plan, good luck with that, I hope youll do well and prove how smart you are, now please move on, when youll buy inform us and get your credit.

I3e started the last campaign with 11m recoverableswith mc of 80m$, made a big discovery of 200m stoiip, and now have 80m recoverable with fpso tie back and mc of 16m$, 0.2$ a barrle.
How crazy is that...

Both drilling transformational wells, both released updates on the ongoing drills this morning, echo's update made me less optimistic while columbus made me more optimistic.
The shares reaction demonstrate it best.

Developement funds.

I really don't want to wake you up from dreaming but i'll correct you..
Best case scenario 15m reoverables will be valued 3-4$ for bboe.
That is just facts, bboe in the ground is valued 0-8$ per bboe depends on many parameters, in this case 3$ is good result.

not holding,
had the dates marked as I wanted to buy in to the results but waited because dusters are delivered earlier at td in most cases.
my buying timeline was 18-20/12, so that rns makes me think twice.
don't really have the technical knowledge to interpetate the results as delivered but was invested in i3e which delievered a rns pre testing 2 weeks ago just to update 3 days later that the encountered oil is noncommercial.
not sure that is the case here, also the rns of i3e was delievered because of a leak from the rig that it was a duster and a fall of the share price.
anyway, I don't see a pretesting update as a good sign.
excuse my spelling, not an English speaker.

I hold both (gpb), but at the moment more of trp as I see the namibian upside at both but the short term catalysts of south Africa and Cameroon makes me think it might be the first one to make a fundamental progress.

About Cameroon, if a drill come through and successfull, development will be through tieback to existing infrastructure or is a new fpso required?

Timing is everything, if released at 8.00 we would probably be at 16p right now.
I3e is valued as a drowning ship, but this ship is not drowning.
If i understand correctly, in full dillution bybrook holds about 18%.
We are partners, we have the discovery we will have the funds.
The placing, binding or not, wasn't in our pocket.
This is a winner!

The a2 faliure is a major cut for the return potential of i3e, if successfull then the fcf would fund all drills and dp and the real value would appear with no more dillutions.
Im sure the company will realize the assets potential but now it will have to farmout for cheap.
The upside is so big that it is still a potential multi bagger, but now time is needed.
The junior loan was finalized 2 months before the drilling campaign, now the timeline is tighter as the junior loan requires funding in place by april, that means it should be sorted out by march.
The sp is now an obsticle for funding and the bod will have to work hard and smart to ramp it up.
Either way, the funding will be key for recovery of the sp and it will take 3-4 months.
We might get "extra" updates about next years campaign as the bod will want more value but it looks like only real fundamental developments will change momentum here.
Serenity is a 60-70m recoverables before the appraisals but the market dont believe the companies interpertation and value it almost as a duster after the big a2 flop, so only the appraisals will change that.
Phase 1 was never valued for its real potential and for sure won't be now, but the fact is that a 5000 bbopd phase 1 is a game changer as it provides 100m$ of annual income with around 40-50% profit, which makes funding a non issue.
Will the company take that chance? I hope they will.
I think that if phase 1 will green light, the company will want to do it asap as it changes their farm out and funding position, and if it fails they will be in the same bad position to negotiate.
Any way atleast 2-3 months to get back to the 20's in my opinion, any faster will be a plesent surprise for me.

Its very relevant that bp is in.
So far i was impressed by the companies abillity to provide such good deals, now i understand how they do it, bp believes in the assets, and im talking about serenity which was proved and liberator west which was actually de risked by A2 as it proved the companies interpetation of sand migration to the west.
So I believe we will keep making good funding deals after a good year to year results.

Like it or not, i3e is now a playground for traders, i wrote about it a week ago and todays tradings demonstrate it.
Every jump this undervalued share will make will be followed by profit taking of traders.
I dont like this guessing games of daily share prices, what is it good for?
The important thing is the junior loan was given with 11m of reserves and the senior loan, if it will come through, will have 80m of reserves.
That is just a fact of the outcome of this years campaign.

7m bboe will be enough for a 5000 bbopd phase 1, that is probable and a very good result and upside for the company.
You are right though, only way to know is to drill at the expected sweet spot, might proove noncommercial and might prove the full amount of around 7500 bbopd.

The more sellers at this price the bigger the volume will be, less sellers means the volume will go down and more and more buyers will be waiting to get a bite at 12p, not getting their bites the price will start raising with a "buyers squeeze", the longer it will take the bigger the squeeze.
Looks like less volume so far.

In the short run theres no point blaming the mm's of conspiring, the share dropped due to failling l2 and waisting two thirds of the funds for nothing and changing the original targets to do so, add to that the leak from the rig and you have the perfect storm.
Now the big investors who influence small caps like this can take the time, as there is no fundamental developments expected in the coming months, and buy as much as they can at this price.
The moment the first big investor will start raising up the volumes and the shares price a gold rush will commence and the sp will rally to the 20's even with no news, that is why pi's shouldn't play this game cause if they try they are sure to miss the run.
We will have to be patient, maby first quarter, maby second but things must move forward fast to prepare for next summers campaign.

After listening for the third time graham states about 2020: "planning a large scale campaign, speaking with potential partners in that regard".
That tells me two things:
The farm out will be for the 2 licenses.
There is a chance of that happening sooner then expected.
If that is the case its in everyones interest to move forward quickly, the tag price won't be the issue, even only paying back the money invested by i3e will make the sp rocket immediately to the 30s or 40s if not 60's as the company will be in the best position so far.
I assumed that a farm out will take place around mid year in a matter that allows the companies to to plan the drilling campaign, but i now think that as the partners will be invested in all the prospects time is of the essence and we just might be positively surprised.
Investors whos buying shares now might get an amazing return in a very short term but even mid year that is still a great oppertunity.

surfers know that when getting wiped out by big wave the only thing to do is hold your breath, let the currents do as they like and wait till its over before attempting to go up for air.
we have been wiped out by an enormous wave this last two weeks and its time to hold our breath.
the next recovery will have to be fundamental and will require a funding update rns.
I believe we'll get an update early next year (jan-feb)
the next recovery phase will have to do with operational update, hopefully phase 1 will come through, I think the market will be suspicious until results but a serenity drilling timeline will create positive momentum, I expect op update around mars-april.
the last recovery phase will be the farm out update which I believe will take place around mid year.
each of the above holds value and we don't have a choice but to wait as in between updates we are nothing but a playground for traders.

Serenity is a big success, its not "another discovery" in the north sea, its a unique field that has a world class economics.
If you told the bod on august that lib east will fail but serenity will be succesfull they would go out to celebrate (and then the sp was at 60p).
Lib east was never the vision, it was only a mean to fund the real assets the company believed it got and that as been proven big time with serenity's drill results.
No doubt, these two nice guys are smart and capable but their rookie mistakes put the sp where it is today though there is no way it can stay at this price for long, that kind of mistakes is part of investing in a new born company.
What makes serenity a world class field and probably one of the best breakeven project in the north sea?
1. Its an extension of rre and repsols tain field that is being planned for developement as we speak, which means it was born with "royal blood".
2. The structure is much simplier then liberator and most likely to have a better porosity.
3. They got their mapping right and have encountered twice the thikness they expected, imagine l2 would proove 160ft of oil coloum where they expected 80ft, that is how big the serenity results are. The bod didnt use that to ramp up but waiting for the appraisals and i respect them for that.
4. They hit a deeper unexpected resource yet to be appraised.
5. The quality of the sands is very high.
6. The tie in to the bleoholm creates higher value and quick development.
So what is the value of serenity once appraised?
I believe that after two more appraisals serenity will proove 120m bboe of reserves.
At that point i assume rre and repsol will hold 60% of the field.
Bboe in the ground, with fdp in sight, repsol operator, high quality of sands and tie in to the bleoholm goes for conservative 8$ for bboe, that means that at that point serenity will value around 1b$.
40% will value 400m$ net to i3e.
That is less then 1 year away from now when we are valued 18m$.
Value will be unlocked in the short run by the companies anni****ives to fund the drills, negotiating farm out and planning next summers campaign, and then in closing the deals and moving forward to the drills.
The next campaign will be more promising then this years as we have serenity with better then expected result.
I will hold my shares all the way as a good outcome of the appraisals which i have no doubt will be good will take the company to a different league and can deliever a multi bagger year with potential to create a 400m$ value with no big dillutions.

I'll just add that if i was out it was a strong buy for me at this price!

Target pricing at the moment is same as gambling, right now its all about fundamentals.
If I had to price the value at this point I would give lib west no value.
Lib east- I believe that its not going to be developed, the "simplefied" phase 1 is a playing card for negotiations saying "we are not dependent on farm out for serenity, we have an asset to develope which will enable us to move forward with or without a farm out".
But in this case I would price it 5p trusting the bod that it is a valid option.
Serenity is the only asset with real value at the moment, I'll take the 69m recoverables as a given and value it for 300m$, the risk of the 2 appraisals, the costs, the fundings needed and risks involved, and the companies debt leaves me around 35m$ or 25p.
So my value for the assets for now is 30p.
Aim's companies trades from 20%-200% to companies assets value depend on expactations, confidence and momentum, at this point all 3 are in question so I believe we're trading for half of our assets value and that it might change only by fundamental developments.