What This Week's Federal Reserve Decision Means for Stocks11 Jun 2024 16:14
Even if rates stay higher for longer, hopes of a soft landing are alive and well.
Investors are again recalibrating their expectations around the Federal Reserve's long-awaited interest rate cuts. After hotter-than-expected jobs market data surprised investors on Friday, Treasury yields spiked and bond futures markets pared back their expectations for policy easing.
While the report showed a reacceleration in hiring, the concern was that too much strength in the job market, coupled with stubborn inflation, could keep the central bank on hold even longer. Bond traders now see a roughly equal chance that rates hold steady or the Fed lowers the funds rate for the first time in this cycle at its September meeting. Before the report, traders pegged the odds of a September cut at 55% versus a 33% chance they'd be held steady.
But despite handwringing over the effect of so-called "higher for longer" policy on the economy and equities, strategists say investors have reason for optimism. In fact, our current scenario – and what's most likely to come – may propel the powerful bull market, which has seen stocks up nearly 12% year-to-date, to even more gains in the second half.
https://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/news/250160/what-this-weeks-fed-decision-means-for-stocks.aspx?