Member Info for HarChris

Yes, potential is huge I know - be it in COPD or for COVID but that has not materialised yet.
P2 was solid but study shows more than 80% of P2 has failed in P3.
***************************
And what study is that? Why on earth would you be investing here if there was ~80% chance of failure? For SNG the odds of success are more or less the other way round.

It's difficult to compare as last year the sp was running hot due to fomo of what might land. In May we had already had the first DHSC contract and there was excitement for news to land every day - USA contracts, manufacturing increases, another contract (like we did end up getting). By June half the bb were predicting sales of £500m and sales of £1b for 2021...Now it's almost the opposite but despite that the company is likely still making as much as a million pounds every single day.

I'm expecting a much slower build this time to realise fair value but it's still possible that a bit of news catches the traders out and this flies back up to new highs in the blink of an eye.

If that is true pmjh it's a bit disappointing and goes against what we were saying recently, that those who have held this long won't sell for 10% profit. Most of us on here predicted this to be well past £2 by now and should be comfortable with admitting that we've been wrong up until now.

It's still possible to leave £2 behind and push onto £3 in the next three weeks though I feel. Once we enter March any sudden spike will be followed by fomo traders wondering if there could be a leak.

Vegas, why would it be? In that case should Abbot, Roche etc be worried that they are going to lose all their income to avacta too?

The move towards genomic surveillance distinguishes novacyt from avacta and means, even more so than before, both can flourish simultaneously.

Emotion is clearly getting the better of everyone on here now and I don't blame you. I only bought back in yesterday and even I was a bit peeved with the interview and continued sp retracement today. I did give myself a slap as a reminder that I am in no position to be frustrated, that should be reserved for all you lot that held on and topped up time and time again over the past few weeks.

I'm sure everything is going well behind the scenes but there is one major problem now, Graham and the team are relying on blind faith from holders to keep holding or topping up. I am considering doubling down at these prices but I am gambling on this silence meaning nothing, of it simply being a result of complicated (positive) negotiations going on behind the scenes. It's a gamble on Graham and the team, that they do actually have detailed plans for the long term but are keeping their cards close to their chest for the time being.

It shouldn't be that way but it is what it is. I took the gamble to sell at £9.90 on the day of the trading update and expected to regret it. I don't think I was clever for doing it, I just had a nagging feeling something like this could happen and once I got that in my head I had no choice but to sell. But again that's my point... sure every investment with potentially big returns is a gamble but it shouldn't need to be at this stage.

Either things aren't great behind the scenes or this lack of communication is opening the most amazing opportunity for new shareholders. For me, even the worst case situation isn't that bad and for that reason I see it the risk/reward as brilliant from here but that is no solace for those who have continued to see their investment shrink day by day and don't have the funds to take advantage down here. Let's hope for some great news soon :)

Please stop arguing over something you have wrong. You are quoting revenue, not profit. Cash doesn't come into it but it does strengthen their position.

I'm telling you that the p/e isn't 1 or even close to 1 but a p/e of 3 with a very healthy cash balance is unusual.

To be honest if I was sure of a DHSC contract extension and the price went any lower I would start to consider it 'remortgaging your house' levels...

I'm afraid that's not how it works bluelight. H2 last year was an exceptional six months, H1 2021 possibly could match that but unless there's new revenue streams H2 2021 isn't going to. The brokers are not forecasting £530m profit 2021 so your claims are invalid.

All the same a p/e of around 3 is unusual with no debt and tells us the market has absolutely no confidence in novacyt going forward. It's going to take news to shift that feeling.

A p/e of 1? Why is that comment getting five recommends? The mcap is £530m and I can assure you ncyt did not make £530m profit in 2020.

Whichever way you swing it now is the worst time to start selling. Many of you will have made the mistake to keep buying all the way down convinced the trading update deserved to see us at £15 but what's done is done. If you sell now looking for gains elsewhere there's every chance you'll get stung elsewhere.

Some good news and a clear strategy for the future could well see the so fortunes change very quickly...

I'm a bit out of the loop so correct me if I'm wrong but it appears to me that the main reason we haven't seen any non-covid acquisitions or discussion is because the company has chosen to see how the pandemic plays out first. Is that correct? Graham isn't sure yet how much 'juice' is still to be squeezed from the covid lemon and sees it as prudent to make the most of this opportunity before building out the company even if the City dislikes it short/medium term. For all we know we could be looking at £200m revenue from covid (£145m EBITDA) for the next ten years which would lead to midcap status by itself...

Therein lies the difference Nolupus. You hold both, Happy has stated they are looking to short SNG.

I can assure you that once these threads fizzle out you won't be mentioned again, unless you return here that is. So the ball's in your court buddy! Gl with your investment.

Wouldn't be surprised to see some big director purchases soon...

You could argue that this total **** up in PR is presenting an amazing opportunity for new investors to swoop in and buy shares on the cheap but that is no consolation to the LTHs here. There is no excuse for such guff, vapid answers. The questions were absolutely fine, he had an opportunity to express himself, share his thoughts on the price action following the trading update, present his case for why this will be a midcap company.

The fundamentals should win out eventually but Graham is not laying out the investment case whatsoever.

It wasn't a positive interview let's be honest, it was absolutely generic. I've only just bought back in at 780p so don't feel hard done by but I am starting to feel for the holders who write so passionately on here and keep pumping more money in only for opportunities like this to absolutely be wasted and the sp to fall further.

If the company is putting pen to paper on a contract extension or phase 2 it won't matter, but after the trading update and now this, there really does not to be something soon.

A shocking waste of time!

Here we go with the agenda theme again, now it's me with an agenda.

I replied to a specific comment you made and then went on to make a general point about people driving the best posters away from here. I didn't claim that you were one of those driving forces and I wasn't referring to you - apologies for the confusion.

Cystic fibrosis? I think you need to do a little research of your own!

But it's all this theorising that is damaging on here and questioning the motives of every well intentioned member. So ShaunP didn't post on the morning of results and that makes him a shorter does it? Or that he sold out? It's just stupid talk.

I remember when I was heavily invested here a few months ago and the bb became hysterical after the independent article. ShaunP popped on a few hours later, didn't even engage with the story and just carried on researching as usual. That really helped me to relax and see the bigger picture.

Now VanV who's done more for novacyt than any other member on here is having to reject claims that he sold out and has some ulterior motive. It's really poor form.