Member Info for HarChris

We know when those future plans are laid out in Q2 that this will move quickly. Now it's just a case of those with cash available trying to pick the best possible moment to pull the trigger over the next two to three weeks.

Where is the proof Sam that NCYT is actually selling their products in the quantities that we here would like to believe ??
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There is none. What we have to go on however very much suggests considerable revenue throughout January and February at the very least. Why? H1 sales were £63.1m, H2 sales were £213.7m. Taking the info from other diagnostic companies we can assume those H2 sales were weighted toward Q4 rather than Q3. So the best estimate of revenue per month in Q4 is £40m. By January the second wave was reaching a peak and so there's every reason to think sales were at least matching Q4, hence £80m between Jan 1st and end of Feb (I reckon a little higher even).

Beyond that it's much harder to estimate.

I'm half expecting CityTTrader to pop on here and tell us that his sources got this mixed up but a TR1 Friday from a Sri Lankan buyer is incoming.

I am not kidding that a cash pile this size offers a safety net that a company without this cash pile simply doesn't have, no. This can be driven as low as say three times cash but there's a limit to how low it's possible to force it down. Okay, that floor probably is a bit lower than 650 but I don't want to be a debbie downer and I don't think it will go much lower apart from the odd tree shake.

“the markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

It's been five weeks like this Deas, not 5 years!

You can be almost certain that any drop into the mid 660s is unsustainable and will recover quickly.

The good thing here is there really is a limit to how low this can go with the enormous cash pile building up, however poor sentiment is. We are at or around that floor.

Yeah I don't expect the population to be very well protected but it looks more promising than the Oxford vaccine against the P1 variant - which is still good news.

Some good news for humanity https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-pfizer-biontech-vaccine-shows-promise-against-brazil-coronavirus-variant-in-laboratory-testing-12240454

08-Mar-21 11:41:06 682.50 15,000 Buy* 102.38k
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Almost certainly a buy. This won't go any lower than it is now (besides the odd morning tree shake), traders with no interest in ncyt's long term future, simply looking for 20%, will load up at this level.

Volume is low as comms are ****te. Why invest in a business that does not update their SH or give any fwd guidance. The SP is on a very slippery slope.
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It doesn't bother me, what's your excuse?

Yes, that roadmap will be provided soon. From a recent RNS:

In parallel with the current focus of continuing to maximize the opportunity for COVID-19 testing, the Company is also continuing to build on its strategy for delivering a sustainable, long-term diagnostics business. Novacyt intends to present these plans during Q2 2021.

Wilson, that's not what I meant. I was talking about a flurry of non consequential RNS' clearly designed to artificially prop up the share price, not the sort you're referring to. The sort you're referring to sees the share price at new highs!

Me too Steve! I think a red flag would be a flurry of rns' clearly designed to prop up the share price, that to me would be a sign of bad things to come...

Fireblade, I can assure you GM is not concerned by the SP one iota, if anything it's totally irrelevant. What matters is what's going on behind the scenes, if it's all dandy he'll know that before too long (even if it takes 6 months) the SP will be back in double figures minimum. If it's bad, well again the SP will take care of itself...

For SHs though it's not quite so simple. No news can be a good thing or a bad thing, we simply don't know and have to trust that it's the former.

F off Brentw1 you self-important p****

Ha i'm joking, I hear you. Truth is nearly all BBs go this way once the SP stops playing ball :(

July 2021 - £0.50
Oct 2021 - £0.60
Summer 2022 - cease to exist.

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I'm just practicing BBC style impartiality!

Alkin, the States should give us the best idea of how effective the vaccines are as they have seen stubbornly high numbers of deaths over the past year, with the 7 day average daily deaths never below about 600 that entire time.

With even less restrictions soon in the states if the daily deaths fall to ~250 or below we can be pretty sure vaccines are having a major impact.

Did we ascertain whether CityTTrader had any actual info on a new buyer or was merely adding up the buys at the end of the day like we all have and putting 2 and 2 together to get 37 (/that we have a US buyer over 5%)???

It is going to be very interesting to see how we leverage our new partnerships and supply chain post covid. The market is clearly fearful that if covid revenue drops ten fold suddenly at the back end of this year then the company will be back to more or less where they were pre covid - just with £150m of cash in the kitty. I can't see that happening and I imagine the outlook is forever changed now but I don't understand the industry enough to know for sure, or to predict in any way what sort of revenue we could generate from these 550 products.

In two years time we ideally need to be making around £50m profit a year to see the SP around £14, something that is evidently possible but not guaranteed as of yet. If we do end 2021 with €278 in cash as forecasted by SP Angel then that is an enormous amount of money to start the expansion with at least.