Member Info for HarChris

Officially 10% of Floridians have had covid. Seeing as testing in the states was so poor at the start of the pandemic and still isn't quite up there you can easily double that number, maybe more. If 25% of the population have already contracted covid and 30% have been given their first vaccine dose, you'd expect that to have an effect on transmission, right?

Bill Gates?

Another excuse next week then for CW not to pick up his kids ;)

Poidster, what do you see as the main revenue driver going forward then? I know you're bullish and think this could become a midcap company worth something in the billions, what makes you believe that most? Confident in the bolt on acquisition strategy? Think we'll continue to sell millions of covid tests a year for the foreseeable?

themorg/// there was loads and loads of talk on here of our inclusion in activ 2 sending the SP into a new, much higher range. Not from the likes of Zwarts but from the most respected posters. It was seen by many as a game changer with that £50 bull target right back in focus. It still might turn out to be a game changer but as of now the market is not blown away by it whatsoever.

First of all the activ 2 news did not have anywhere near the impact that we thought it would. The share price is back to where it was well before it was definite we'd be included in that trial. I think we all expected far more discussion on interferon by this point, not just the odd tweet from the usual guys (Topol & Aurelien). We expected treatments and therapeutics would be jostling for centre stage by now, side by side with vaccines, but that's not the case.

The dramatic fall in cases and the promising vaccine data is definitely having an impact too - not just in regards to sentiment but also the effect it'll have in filling the p3. When the p3 started in mid Jan there were about 4200 patients admitted to hospital a day in the UK, now it's something like 500. It looks like the international arm of the trial has barely got going either, two months after starting in the UK.

This is also the longest period without news. Since December we've always been due an rns within a few weeks, whether it be home trial full recruitment, p3 starting, activ 2 inclusion, activ 2 first patient dosed and most importantly whilst the hospitals were getting stretched there was more chance of something dramatic like emergency approval being granted. The last rns was on the 15th Feb and we knew once that landed we were unlikely to hear again from the company for at least five weeks...

I personally think we'll start seeing positive price action later in March but who knows at this stage!

Well they can't claim to have been at home with their slippers on watching the news with a cup of tea can they?

Org, best to brush that one under the carpet and focus on the guesses he gets right. That way he can give himself a 100% strike rate!

To be fair £50k in Arb just three or so months ago would have returned around £2.5 million. Tell us you 50 bagged Eva?!

... and be thankful that we have two great investment minds in Tiger16 and Eva to help steer us through these turbulent waters. Keep posting and sharing, it's all invaluable information guys!

Wow, Vadim in conversation with someone other than Justin Waite going 'yeah, yeah, yeah sure Vadim, sure but who's going to need a test now the pandemic is over?!' Might be worth listening to.

I hope they didn't ask you to write the minutes.

No I don't think it will be Monday. And seriously, 'mannic'?!

We aren't going to see that sort of premium until we can forecast what our revenues/earnings are going to look like long term. Currently even our CEO is more or less saying 'the future is too uncertain to even have a stab at a forecast'.

All the research on here is pointing towards a very positive outcome however. If we continue to integrate our instruments and tests into the NHS framework then that provides long term revenue guarantees. If the patenting of SNPsig turns out to be as meaningful as we think it might then without doubt the future is bright and the SP will take care of itself!

What's the manipulation? Big sells keeping the share price down?!

It won't come in at that, but if if came in at 80% above that it would have a chance of being accepted (hence £12 not £20-£30).

So you don't think a bidder would try and take advantage of this weak SP? Instead you think they'll play nice and fair and offer what we think the company's worth? You think they'll say 'the market is valuing you at £500m but would you take £2 billion?'

Scaredie that's not what I'm saying, the lower the SP the more likely a bid comes in on the cheap. All the while the SP struggles to break £7 we aren't getting an offer of £20, let alone £30... More likely a cheeky attempt to take out ncyt for under a billion.

You don't usually see offers 200% of the current share price!

The rumours are almost exclusively founded here on this bb. Having said that they aren't at all far fetched, even more so the lower the share price goes sadly.

Deas, don't worry about it. If we get a £30 takeover I can assure you you'll find another share worth putting your large novacyt profits into. Never turn down a quick 450% profit !