Member Info for HarChris

They'll be plenty of buying if it gets close to 220, starting with me.

My word how desperate you are to see this drop to £2! (It won't happen 100%)

I don't think a nation like Brazil will ever reach herd immunity from vaccines, it's a population of over 200 million. Seeing as the P1 variant is dominant in Brazil I doubt vaccinations will have that much of an impact anyway...

Still there Wilson https://twitter.com/PerpetualValue/status/1369938039531839492

Out of interest WBernard, what sort of CFO appointment would impress you? I'm interested to know who you expect novacyt at this stage to be able to entice.

'McCarthy had held a number of senior positions in major listed and private equity-backed businesses, the board noted.
Most recently he was CFO of Flint Group - a $2.5bn revenue, private equity-backed business with 7,900 staff and 180 sites across 40 countries.
Previously, he was CFO of Brambles’s EMEA CHEP business, before being promoted to president of CHEP's European team.
Brambles is an Australia-based, ASX listed company with a market capitalisation of AUD 16bn (£9.09bn).'

For me the most impressive figure in the trading update was the cash in bank. We don't know how much spare capacity we now have but if 2021s sales beat 2020s, not accounting for acquisitions, we should have over half of our current mcap in cash. That's a crazy forward looking cash to equity ratio.

I don't buy into all the different reasons we aren't hearing from the company such as a T/O, to me it's pretty obvious that the money being generated is enormous and they simply don't care what happens to the SP in the few months between news as they know committed holders will eventually be happy. gggg I do agree with Q4>Q3 theory which means Q4 has to have been at least £120m. I tend to be conservative with my predictions but I still think we might match 2020s revenue before the summer is out.

Seeing as 2021 is going to see significantly greater revenues from the private sector (and probably better margins to boot) if we do indeed get a DHSC contract even close to the last one then 2021s revenues should far exceed 2020s...

Although I have become a little more pessimistic re SNG over the past month if these trials prove SNG001 to be as effective as the P2 trial showed then all the wild share price predictions are back on the table. For me it's all about the science & the drug and not about the wider covid climate now and I get the impression RM feels the same way. We might miss the chance to play a big part in this pandemic but if the pandemic ends up being the event that paves the way for approval as a broad spectrum anti viral then it will still be absolutely transformational for the company.

gggg I would imagine it will be a smaller contract in terms of weekly revenue (£10m a week was for peak pandemic) but for a much longer duration, probably a year this time. A year's contract, or even longer, would reduce short term uncertainty significantly and be a real game changer.

Gazman, I think they mean the growth in cases of variants isn't increasing as of now, there is no exponential growth like they saw with B117 and so if this continues neither the SA variant or P1 Brazilian variant will become the dominant strain (which is bloody good and necessary for society as a whole).

I know that, I just kind of thought it was a given that we'd see a bit of a rally next week pre listing so a strange time to increase a short position.

ScaredieCat, there are numerous reasons why the SP is languishing down here. Uncertainty over new contracts and uncertainty in regards to where the long term revenue will come from and what it will look like. Both of these can and hopefully will be addressed soon and if so the SP will respond accordingly. All is certainly not lost!

My mistake, by revenue it is saying share price growth of 600% over five years, not actual sales. That seems a realistic target although many on here seem to think we'll be taken over before the week is out!

Voleon Capital declared short of 0.52%. Does it seem strange to anyone else that this has appeared just before the move to the nasdaq? It perhaps explains the fall in SP at least.

I'm not sure a human was behind this forecast, in fact I'm certain of that! An increase in revenue of 609% in five years would mean sales around £2b a year, a conservative profit estimate of £1b a year, an mcap of about £20b and a share price of about £280. One can dream!

It really doesn't matter, most won't be flipped for 15% anyway.

Rich, traders don't care about the long term value, they sell if they think tomorrow the SP will be lower than today and buy if they think it will be higher tomorrow than today. It tells us nothing about the chance of success, it's just a reflection that we're in a downtrend.

Naewise, whatever happens next, whatever the forecasts, just remember that the business has a humongous war chest to develop this company. It is extremely difficult to predict the future for novacyt so broker forecasts are less useful than they might be for other companies. That's not to say i'm overly bullish, I think it's possible by this time next year the SP could be £3.50, but I also think it could be £35, or even higher. The fate of the company is in the hands of Graham and the team and I'm sure they are spending day and night on the strategy to grow into something far more exciting than a 'covid testing' stock.

Good luck and try not to sell unless you have reason to believe the SP will go much lower.

I was a little worried at first that he might have some influence but he's become a parodic figure now, just an attention seeker that won't be taken seriously be anybody.