Member Info for HarChris

Me too. I'm just finding the pessimism right now very trying. We have been getting some amazing news regarding vaccines but people are very quick to rubbish it and dismiss it. Multiple trials from multiple vaccines have shown protection against severe illness to be extremely high, some virtually 100%. I really believed we were stuck in an impossible cycle of lockdown and partial reopening but not anymore.

We are not out of the woods yet, we will need boosters, we will need uptake of vaccines to be consistently high year on year, we will need to stay on top of variants etc etc but I see light at the end of the tunnel at least.

I don't think influenza can be eradicated just like that. Many scientists seem to think it will be back with a vengeance next winter (if we aren't still wearing masks & social distancing) and the lack of it this winter makes it virtually impossible to produce an effective vaccine. I've seen experts who think flu will cause more problems to the UK than covid next winter.

So do you think we are now stuck with lockdowns forever? I believe the scientists and the data from the vaccines that says, even if they are not that great at stopping transmission, the vaccines are excellent at preventing severe illness. And fortunately uptake appears to be very good in this country. The government did their best to avoid a second lockdown even when thousands were hospitalised a day, they aren't going to lock down if vaccines keep the numbers consistently well below that.

I do think we'll have some restrictions in place next winter during the rollout of boosters but beyond that I don't expect my life forever more to be a series of lockdowns and reopenings.

Personally I'm pretty confident we'll never ever have another lockdown in this country - some restrictions in place perhaps like social distancing next winter if there's a period between boosters and variant escape but that's it.

Earth I do agree with you. What's now interesting to me is the reaction that'll follow a contract win. Long term it shouldn't matter but by failing to create a post-covid narrative this is now being viewed as a covid stock and not much else. Of course that will change with time and the right executive moves but it might be a struggle.

From a selfish pov I think if we were to get a real whopper of a contract the reaction may be initially muted offering up a chance to really throw the kitchen sink at this share (for those like me that haven't already).

This deal might be scrapped and a new (larger or smaller) deal might replace it but no deal whatsoever? I think the chances of that are next to nothing.

Me too, the share price would fall 30% or so to a new base at £5 me thinks. But, what on earth would have to have gone wrong for the DHSC to cut ties with us? I'd understand if the gov believed testing wasn't necessary going forward but that's not what they've been saying. And what a waste of all the Q series training and new labs?

They could just tell us?! A quarterly update would be a kind little gesture to kickstart the share price, especially if a contract is about to be signed in early April...

In my opinion it's because of the tempering in bitcoin sentiment. Arb relies on more than just bitcoin rising, it relies on bullish sentiment and bitcoin soaring. When that happens and there's belief that bitcoin is going to move through the gears, ARB runs well ahead of btc. Previously Musk's tweets have had far more impact than they do now.

If any of you have been purposely doing that remember this - you're a c***.

LBPS ticker finally showing on HL.

If results are bad the SP tanks, plain and simple. The company will dust itself off and pick up the COPD angle but short-medium term it won't trade much higher than 60p, if that. That is the reality of investing in drug development companies however and the odds of that occurring are very low.

We should all be aware of that risk and have staked only as much as we are comfortable losing in case that rather unlikely event happens.

I reckon so. Would not be surprised to see the SP breach 150 again before the week is out.

Soder that aligns with my own thinking. If after eighteen to twenty four months of supernormal profits ncyt settles into something like £75m revenue annually from covid testing, that is itself a good enough base to maintain a share price higher than it is today. They then have upwards of £300m cash to build the company out to become a solid midcap company long term.

I think that's wrong? Don't you divide it by 8 then convert to pounds? $13.20/8 = $1.65 = £1.20?

Don't forget this is being shorted - I imagine Voleon have upped their short even further today looking at this drop.

Back to where it was last Thursday, no big deal. Fully funded til Q2 2022, that's what is important to me...

Ive taken a risk and sold elsewhere to buy more here.

Tiger really reminds me of myself six months ago (minus the self congratulatory posts). New to investing I picked winner after winner and turned the £25k I had to my name into £110k from February to September 2020. I started thinking I was extremely good at this game and in another six months I'd have double or tripled that, maybe even more. As it happens I'm still well up but down about £15k over the last six months and quickly learning it was largely luck and am now being careful to hold on to what I have.

I have the feeling Tiger won't be quite as introspective though and will continue to pretend he's an ex investment banker.

I think it's safe to say they offer as much protection against severe disease as anyone could have hoped for and I assume that although your friend was unwell he didn't end up on a ventilator?

Sadly we're going to have to accept some level of risk of catching covid and being quite unwell, probably for ever. As long as people stop dying from it or suffering life altering complications then life can return to normal.

How ill did they get?