Member Info for HarChris

It is fantastic news and although to a degree you're right (there are definitely some here who hope the vaccines turn out to be at least a little less efficacious) the news does not alter the investment case here. Evidence that the drug is highly efficacious against this coronavirus will add enormous value to the company irrespective of how much product is shifted in the short term.

I hope when they eventually acquire the rest it's a minimum of 1000% higher than £1.10 a share.

Ducks are lined up.

You hold over a million quid in ncyt stock? I'm pretty sure that makes you this bb's top dog then!

It's interesting to compare the current SP with the share price around the nasdaq listing announcement. The SP closed at 93 on the 21st Oct, plans to list on the nasdaq were announced on the 22nd and the SP rose to 115 by close and then on the 23rd spiked to 144 before closing at 133.5...

So we're exactly the same as the close on the 23rd Oct - I think this pushes on now at least a little higher over the next week or two and breaks 150/160.

I think the analogy to Russia and Turkey is a bit extreme just because the media is championing vaccines and being careful not to start scare mongering if cases start creeping up from a relatively low base, but I'll join you on the outrage if hospitalisations and deaths follow and the media do their best to keep that info hidden.

Personally I don't see how things can get much better than they are soon to be. Vaccines are the standout tool to bring this pandemic under control and as time goes on treatment options will have improved to deal with those that are still unlucky to catch the virus and display symptoms. If every time cases rise a little it is plastered all over the news it will make it even harder for people to get back to living a normal life.

The number one aim is to reduce admissions to hospitals from covid, not cases. Of course it would be beneficial if vaccines turn out to more or less eliminate covid spread but we've not been told that so shouldn't expect that. If there is a reversal in hospitalisations and deaths you can be sure it will be reported on but reporting every small change in the number of cases is not helpful in my opinion.

The mainstream news I watch is certainly more doom and gloom than sun and rainbows and daisies.

I agree with what TaylorQuant tweeted recently 'We had the perfect storm there. Traders selling on news, Mullis' less than ideal wording, LFT rally, vax sentiment and covid cases falling, all that on top of uncertainty about certain deals going ahead. Oh and ODDO. Jeez, what a mess.'

The SP has almost certainly hit the bottom now (at around £6.40 a share) and won't retest that area. We may only tread water next week but with possible contract news any day and Q2 just a week away (for the more detailed long term strategic plan) I imagine interest in these shares will continual to build from here...

As hospitalisations and deaths are brought under control through vaccines testing for variants will surely become the priority now. Of course it's important to reduce overall cases as much as possible but the real danger is if variants such as the Brazilian P1 variant take a hold and diminish the benefits of the current vaccine rollout. Could SNPsig become the norm in hospitals and other clinical settings going forward?

Citadel reduced to 0.42% about a month go so they might have completely closed out by now but Voleon have been increasing over the past few weeks.

Could it be an attempt to manage the share price going long and short simultaneously? After all some of us expected the SP to rally much harder than it has into the NASDAQ listing and beyond...

It was just eight weeks between first patient dosed in the P2 (hospital arm) and completion. We are now over 9 weeks into the phase 3 trial so would like to think we'll get some sort of update from the company soon.

The problem is hospitalisations are so much lower now than when the p3 commenced in mid Jan, from 4000 a day at the peak to now about 350 a day, and we just don't know how quickly things got off the ground. We've got to hope that trial sites got up and running quickly and we've already recruited 150+ in the UK with only a few spots left to fill.

CR, surely not? P3 is double blinded so no the data won't be visible throughout the trial. I think the hope is for an interim readout once a certain amount of patients have been recruited, something like 250/610, which we could be close to now.

The variants, particularly the headline that the Brittany variant wasn't being picked up by most PCR tests, gives ncyt a real USP and distinguishes them from other test providers. We've seen the benefit of first mover advantage already, if they pull this off once again re SNPSig then it really could be transformational.

Of course if testing remains relatively important long term and ncyt can generate ~£100m revenue yearly from that alone then reaching midcap status would be an inevitability.

I think what's holding back the share price is the size of the company pre-covid, it puts extra pressure on the business to really make the most of these exceptional circumstances (which we think they are). If you compare, say, to Genmark, they were valued at about $400m in January 2020 whilst ncyt were valued at about £10m. This was a tiny, tiny company that has completely transformed but to what degree can they leverage this we are yet to find out. To develop into a midcap company is the states goal which is eminently achievable but certainly not a formality.

How much have you looked into Genmark out of interest Porky? The comparison is relevant but to what degree does not seem to have been researched. Are their revenues about to explode perhaps as the US starts pumping money into testing? Do they already have a strong model in place to generate revenue post-covid? Do they have any USPs that could lead to exponential growth from here?

I'm hoping we are valued 2 or 3 times from here soon but there's only so much we can take from the Genmark deal, after all Roche went in for them and not us despite our relatively cheap SP.

Who are UBS? Financial services company, investment bank etc - they're one of the biggest in the world, most will have heard of them.

Well that's bloody good news, thanks gggg & CT - my last top up looks well timed!

I'm with Woodstock, just imagine if SNG fails and Mrs CW is forced to accept cheap plywood kitchen cabinets instead of the beautiful maple hardwood I bet she has planned!