Member Info for HarChris

The reason I do and did this time is because rampers on here and twitter have shouted buy buy buy all the way down from £11 to here and have contributed to people sitting on far bigger paper losses than they would otherwise have. When, for example the DHSC dispute landed, I wanted to warn people on here to think twice about topping up and averaging down too soon but I didn't/won't because I'll be hated whilst still many on here are praising of the posters who, although contribute way more than me in terms of company info and research, have played a part in encouraging others to get in way over their head. I think in terms of price action/technicals I have a better knowledge than those same people and by pointing that out hopefully what I have to say in response to a post like Naewise's will be listened to and be somewhat helpful and give posters confused/concerned as to why the share price isn't rising a bit of comfort.

If the vaccines are as effective against severe illness as the government have been telling us then there will be no changes to the roadmap whatsoever. This is without doubt an attempt to encourage the 30-50s bracket to actually go and get their vaccine as the uptake amongst the young isn't likely to be all that good.

It is no surprise that the share price is more or less at the level it was prior to the mega second DHSC contract. Imagining a fantasy, unrealistic worst-case scenario puts ncyt right back they were in early September in a sense. If we were to get zero £££s from that contract I think the share price would represent fair value currently but we all know that isn't going to be the case and my personal guess is that the figures will be more or less in line with the end of year trading update.

In terms of buying, holding or selling at this point I see it as a buy because I reckon the bad news is out the way now and it's merely a matter of waiting until the better news lands.

Not buying at 8p is terrible investing/trading whatever you want to call it. You know as well as anyone on here that there's a realistic chance of the V price rallying and the BMN share price rallying too. If you genuinely (I don't believe it) wouldn't tuck some money away in BMN at 8p and watch and wait to see how the story unfolds then that's your loss.

It's a pointless hypothetical anyway as BMN isn't falling to levels last seen in 2017 in a million years.

I'll try and address a couple of your points.

Firstly, I was one of those investors that sold out as soon as the DHSC dispute rns landed, getting out at I think 560p and yet many rampers were screaming to buy at 550p, at 525p, at 500p, at 475p etc. News like that throws all fundamentals out of the window and it's always safer to be on the sidelines rather than in incase there's far more to it. I'm now happy being invested again but I won't pretend that there isn't a chance that there's more dirty laundry to be aired, there might be. I don't think it's particularly likely and I think there's more chance that this will all be sorted without much damage but no-one knows for sure and thats one of the main reasons the share price is down here now.

You can forget about IIs for now too, those sorts of institutions need to build a detailed investment case around any investment and they aren't going to when there's currently no long term outlook provided. What I expect to happen is the DHSC dispute will be resolved, details of the company's strategic plan will begin being shared over the next few months and beyond and the future will start to become much clearer. In this time the share price will probably rally hard before falling back a bit again at which point, perhaps in six months from now if all is looking peachy, II investment will start pouring in.

So yes in my opinion it will probably take that long for the volatility to ease and serious money to enter. This is not a get rich quick share now besides possibly the odd sharp rally like what happened a few weeks ago. Personally, however, I don't think there's much chance of losing money from here unless the absolute worst case scenario plays out.

'A mere 15% increase in FeV' from $35 to $40 would lead to about 100% more profit at current costs so it is significant.

You signed up to bump this thread?!

A few typos on my part to but I hope you got the message! All the best and I'm sure you'll get your 190 exit price eventually!

On the whole I feel a similar way to you Xenor but I don't see what benefit it is to you, to Argo, to anyone to keep airing these views. These long posts of yours are quite self-indulgent and seem more of a personal airing but they start to get a bit tedious!

@Calamari no he can't control the V price but if/when the expected rally occurs we want BMN to be the number one business investors flock to, not Largo or others like IES.

These alt coins are doing nothing for the credibility of bitcoin. Not only that but it stretches the money being ploughed into bitcoin much thinner - if the typical person retail investor placingtheir disposable income into bitcoin instead starts trying to trade altcoins or splits it between bitcoin, ripple, ethereum, zcash, ethereum classic for example, then there is far less consistent money to drive bitcoin up and up.

The reason you are anxious is that you're thinking of this company as a covid test supplier and nothing else. Right now that may be true but the company is cash rich and will be in the process of designing the long term strategic plan. If you zoom out a bit and think of the bigger picture you will notice we are entering into a new plain, a world that is going to be far more focused on testing for disease and one that puts pandemic-preparedness at the heart of government policy.

I tend to look at this investment in a different way, I look at every pound we make from covid test sales as an extra pound the company has to build this company into something that will be unrecognisable to what it is today.

One of the reasons so many loyal investors will still be here is they can't bear to part with their shares for 15.5p when there is still so much potential that can be realised. Even after a fairly dismal update, even with the rising costs, even with the electrolyte plant being pushed back slightly, even with the lack of imagination, even with the dreariness of Fortune himself, the share price finished less than 6% down. They are dirt cheap right now taking into account the backdrop of rising V prices and VRFB take-up.

Without correcting these problems however investors will be desperately seeking an exit now and will choose to sell on any decent rise rather than wait to see the story through to its conclusion

For the share price to catch fire it's absolutely essential that interest in BMN is there 'before' V prices rocket. It's that combination of general investor excitement followed by V exploding that will will ignite the SP. There is still time for that to be achieved but analysts calls like yesterday's are not going to do that...

Jangada mines was a £4m mcap company this time last year - the comparison isn't relevant.

It has been a tough journey to get to 4,000 mtV but again that is already +56% higher than what they were achieving when the last surge took place. So 2018 prices need not apply. As an example, $60 vanadium, so less than half the peak of 2018, would deliver $120m in pre-tax profits even if current costs and production stayed still.
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So if that's the case do BMN break even when V is at $30? Despite it rising recently the price of V does seem pretty stubborn considering we're supposed to be in a commodity supercycle...

I assumed the opposite, having failed to declare it earlier they waited til after hours this week to release it to avoid it having a negative impact...

I'm sure it's not just me more interested in what BBN has to say than BMN!

Let's just say Fortune wasn't doing his famous Robin Williams impersonation.

I'm of the belief that a number of factors will come together by the summer that leads to a massive change in fortunes for the share price. With the refurb and strike behind us, with the ever increasing chatter (and action) regarding VRFBs and with the demand for vanadium looking strong, almost certainly culminating in a higher price of V we are not far from that tipping point now.

I know that this company have a knack for slightly negative rns' so personally I sold half my holding a few days ago waiting for the update and bought them all back on open. This now is the short wait before that perfect storm.