Member Info for HarChris

Elon isn't stupid. I imagine this is his way of bringing the issue to more people's attention and pushing for the whole bitcoin network to move towards renewables.

Plans are being made to have them available by the Autumn, at least for the 9 or 10 million considered vulnerable/most at risk. I don't think we'll have anything concrete regarding boosters for a month or two though...

When it comes to investing here none of that matters. I think it's possible to have 65% of the current market cap in cash (it will be being invested so only hypothetically speaking) by the end of 2021 so investing at this price is an absolute no brainer. I also think there's every chance Graham and the team will make a success of transforming novacyt into a midcap business valued at £1-2b within a few years.

Fair enough. I think there's a resignation right now that we aren't ever going to vaccinate the world fast enough to prevent further mutations. Even if they were able to, the vaccine uptake in the young simply isn't high enough to eliminate the problems you've raised.

I'm not convinced the situation is as dire as you think it is though. Let's not forget last year we were dealing with a novel coronavirus. The best the scientists could do was create a vaccine over a period of about 9 months and then start building the distribution networks and supply chains afterwards. The current vaccines contain/mimic strains first circulating over 18 months now so it's no surprise that soon boosters will be needed. I do think going forward yearly covid vaccines alongside the flu jabs will be enough to prevent serious illness and deaths at anything like the rate the world has sadly endured over the past year. Sars coV-2 mutates at about half the rate of flu so at least in that regard creating effective vaccines is less of a challenge and with the mRNA technology now new vaccines can be created in super quick time.

Poidster you seem a sensible fella, do you not believe in the effectiveness of vaccines? I know they aren't 100% but they aren't far off when it comes to preventing severe illness. Variants will cause issues but boosters yearly should prevent anything like we saw from March 2020 to February 2021...

Personally I'm very optimistic about the future. I think testing will be around for a little while but think as far as novacyt are concerned they'll be pivoting into new testing areas/genetic surveillance from 2022 onwards.

John bear in mind they don't declare immediately after shorting either. A poster on here earlier mentioned a few trades that looked in keeping with the WQ short so it's probably risen even more since, with a declaration either tomorrow or Friday.

Let's hope for some positive company updates soon!

This BB consists of some of the most upbeat, optimistic and positive folk around - good on you!

Are you genuinely using ATHs and YTD share price as the metric for whether or not BMN is a growing business? The share price is one factor to take into account but share prices can spike wildly in either direction for reasons such as hype, spikes in the price of an underlying asset, shorting, a freak event like covid etc.

If you're going to use share price to measure the growth of a business at least average out a year's share price and compare it year on year over four or five years to see if the trend is positive or negative.

John this is the best site to view the short position: https://www.quivad.com/novacyt/obsolete

WorldQuant currently shorting 1.1% of the shares.

Also why does it have to recover to its previous highs? My average is £4, wouldn't a 50% rise to £6 be a good investment? Or do you make 200% on all yours?

Harchris another 5000 shares in a stock that shows no sign of recovering to it's previous highs.... Those bottomless pockets of yours are great ah....
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I think you've got the wrong person Joker. I bought back in fairly recently and this is only my second top up? 12000 shares in total now.

I would like to see some new substantial director buys. If they like the companies prospects, then give it a massive boost of confidence through some significant buys.
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I don't think they can buy currently, probably because of the dispute with the DHSC. Graham bought half a million shares at £8.17 and the new CFO bought £90ks worth at around £9, pretty sure they'd both dig into their pockets for more below £4 if they could.

No need to convince me Steve, I bought another 5000 shares today to add to my already substantial holding. The point I was trying to make is it's those simple questions that the market wants answered, it doesn't like guesswork. Not only that but Graham's language doesn't scream 'covid is here to stay!', he's more the 'sales should continue into the latter part of the year' type of guy.

The main outlier is avacta in terms of steep valuation and if you listen to Alastair Smith the CEO he is always talking about the billions the company will make with their affirmer technology and other proprietary platforms. That right now is the difference in my opinion.

Completely agree VanV, I'm feeling the same way as you. We saw how quickly the share price can recover just a few weeks ago, from 360p to 580p in a manner of days, but the key things holding back the share price hadn't been resolved hence not only could it not be sustained, it took a raging tumble once again!

It's a coming!

Maybe not but Graham won't care at this precise moment in time whether the share price is £3.89 or £5.01, say. There is no chance of the company needing to raise funds anytime soon and they will be laser focused on the next stage of growth. If after the dispute is sorted, the long term strategic plan is shared and perhaps they've landed an acquisition or two the share price is still down in the doldrums then yes I think Graham and the board will make a concerted effort to do something about it.

Right now I suspect they glance at the share price every now and then and that's about it.

The truth is the share price is kind of an irrelevancy to Graham and the board right now. The number one thing the small cap markets are there for is to raise funds from shareholders and that's the one thing they certainly don't need to do. The board will know that once they start building the company out the share price will eventually react accordingly and if it doesn't, well, they can intervene through buybacks.

SteveV where your analysis falls down in a second is when I ask the simple question 'what about 2022?'.

We have absolutely no idea what the demand for testing will be from 2022 onwards, we don't know how much cash we'll have and we don't know what we'll use that cash for. All those unknowns cause uncertainty and uncertainty either plays in your favour (think last year when the share price was surging) or it goes against you (now.)

This is once again one of my biggest holdings because I am confident that fairly soon most of those questions will be answered and more importantly, I am confident that in a year's time when all the uncertainty will have evaporated the company will be doing exceptionally well. But until then besides the odd trader-led spike there isn't going to be much happening to the share price that's positive.

The trickle down is too slow to reach mid 3s unless there's a sudden panicky sell off. We know news on the long term plan will be here in Q2 so that's a maximum of six weeks. No doubt there will be an attempt to drag it down to the support at 360p if no news in May so there's an option to sell and hope to buy back in cheaper but it's quite the risk at this point for a measly 8% difference.

Instead I chose to load up here with just a little reserved in case it does what you think it might.

For what it's worth today's the first top up I've done in a while. Sure it could go a bit lower but pretty damn confident from here...

Whatever the case, the past yr and past qtr reports are not going to make for pretty reading.
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Throughout the past year there have been countless examples of terrible results followed by a sharp rise in the share price. The market isn't looking at today...