Member Info for HarChris

As I said yesterday there's enough agreement now online that bitcoin could fall back to ~$25k to make it actually happen. There is unlikely to be enough buying pressure on the way down to reverse the trend as everyone waits til the bottom is in unless something strikes out of the blue - I dunno, say Apple announcing they've bought $3b bitcoin at $32k say. That would stem the flow and see bitcoin bottom out and push on back up. Something like that is unlikely but possible.

You bought in the IPO?! Nice one.

1) I think they are perhaps out of their depth and learning on the job as is expected given the company went from a teeny weeny minnow to a multimillion profit generating business almost overnight.
2) I don't see why but I shan't speculate
3) It absolutely was necessary if Q1 revenues may be materially downgraded. I would assume this was always possible though so perhaps should have just stated that in the first dispute rns.
4) Too farfetched that one for me, Blackrock is just a passive fund investor as far as I can tell.
5) I don't agree here. The research on twitter and here is helpful but most of it isn't rns'able. The market cares about figures and long term forecasts more than anything not headcount and new job titles below management level.
6) Agree with you here but more that they simply don't care right now. Cash rich, no need to raise funds, share price will eventually catch up is what I think they'll be thinking.
7) I think in the circumstances it would be polite and respectful to reply to more emails.
8) Is WBAFC really a GP? :D
9) They definitely need to do more on this front to earn the title of 'growth stock' and to be valued on that basis. They haven't shaken off the image of small cap diagnostic test kit seller.
10) Hard to argue here although I haven't tried contacting myself
10 again)
10 again)

ATB crl!

Did any of you lot get in on Argo early out of interest?Any of you get in below 40p? More unlikely but were any of you aware and invested pre December?!

I was quite late to the party having first bought in in mid Feb at 175p.

No they are not meaningless but they tell you nothing at this point besides what's going to happen if support is broken because everyone runs for the hills.

Bonker, the charts are meaningless when it comes to bitcoin. The moves down are much quicker and harsher than the moves up for very obvious reasons. For example, on the way up there will always be pauses for profit taking before continuing the ascent and the same starts out true on the way down, but if you get to the stage where no one is attempting to catch the falling knife/ buying the 'dip' then it's a straight line down with potentially no stopping for air.

I think we can all now agree that Argo raising £27m at £2 a share was a good bit of business!

I don't mean to be a know it all but besides the conspiracy theories of whales accumulating (might be true???) it's just plain obvious it's going down before there's any chance of going it. Even the likes of MicroStrategy haven't bought since $44k and the narrative has switched to 'I'm not selling! from BTFD! In fact I've seen a few bitcoin advocates on twitter stating they will sell if it breaks below support here with the plan to rebuild positions in the low 20s.

With a fixed supply bitcoin is driven purely by demand and virtually no one is eager to buy right now.

It's not trading sideways, it's very much trending downwards - you need to zoom out as they say!
Ps Arsenal away for us today.

The biggest frustration with Friday is that it set the company/share price back another three or four weeks, another three or four weeks in which the share price will be hamstrung by the negative sentiment overhang. Still, for the long term holders who have held for over a year and will probably be holding this time next year and far into the future, it is just three or four weeks before the positive news flow should take centre stage again and the recovery can take place.

I'm sure the board will be so frustrated that they got themselves into this situation but it's merely more necessary short term pain before the longer term gain.

Tl;dr follow a few like wolfofallstreets, Raoul Pal etc and take note of the narrative - if they are bearish it means the market is bearish and their bearishness (is that a word?) will drive prices even lower.

Same for the upside on the whole.

Jayblu that's absolutely spot on and that's one of the main problems. Bitcoin has no underlying fundamentals like stocks do, supply is fixed and diminishing every four years to zero and so demand dictates price 100%. There are lots of factors that affect demand obviously. So what you have is tens of millions of everyday people following youtubers telling them to buy or sell at certain points and what happens is everyone does it and it plays out during a so-called bull run. As it's rising every one of them predicts higher and higher new targets and it becomes a self-fulfilling prophesy. When bitcoin hit $63k however the growth was so large that ordinary everyday folk were sitting on huge profits, some of them life-changing, so when it levels off and starts to look weak it doesn't take much to cause panic and cause a sell off.

The reason I think it's going lower is because those same youtubers, bitcoin figureheads, have started talking more bearishly, they've stopped the pumping and are now trying to change the narrative to 'maybe we'll dip a bit further, maybe $25k, maybe $30k and then we'll start again all the way up to $100k.

The initial buy from Tesla/Elon did have a massive impact but momentum was with bitcoin and the whole crypto space was waiting in anticipation for something like that to happen. Similarly the tweet that rocked the markets came at a time when the price had stopped rising and was showing weakness and although it was that that did it it could easily have been something else.

I do think back in mid April if a few more big companies/institutions had bought plus perhaps Tesla adding rather than reducing then bitcoin would have broken $100k and possibly be sitting even higher than that now. Right now it's difficult to see it doing anything but treading water unless it dips further and finds a lower base in which to start the next big push from.

It is fair to say though that there is a limit to have low the share price can realistically go and we're probably not miles off that, so there's very little benefit to jump out to try and find the bottom.

To be fair that was exactly the attitude I had when buying back in a good few weeks after the DHSC dispute rns, I believed the damage was done and the flow of good news had only just started. I bought in at £3.70, £3.90 and once more at £4.30 happy with my position only to find out that actually no the damage hasn't been done just yet!

So never say never when it comes to the stock market.

Call it being scared of crypto if you want, I'm just realistic and know that bitcoin could fail. It could go to a $1m a bitcoin, it could peter out over the next few years to a level that makes Argo's business unprofitable.

I'm a full time investor with a significant watchlist and I put a lot of work into statistical analysis around every stock I'm interested in. It's not a case of 'if you'll invest at £1 just invest at £1.20 because I have worked out what I think the odds are of it reaching £3 again, £5 etc and what the odds are of the share price capitulating to where it was just six months ago and so I have an entry price in mind that offers a strong R/R ratio and if I don't get it I move on to something else on my watchlist.

I'm here as a former investor and as a potential holder in the future, not to slate bitcoin or the company like the actual derampers.

Hi lotto - is it not scarcity (mixed with demand) that makes commodities valuable?

I’d say there is a correlation with Crypto in that respect.
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I would say that's part true. So when it comes to commodities virtually none of them are scarce in the earth's core (even the so called rare earth metals) but they are scarce at any given time because it is a) time consuming and costly to mine and also often expensive and difficult to transform from raw good to useful metal/mineral etc. So when demand increases often the supply isn't able to catch up and that supply side squeeze causes the price of the commodity to sky rocket...

Mittenator, thanks. Genuinely I only post on here even when out because I know I have absolutely no ability to influence the Argo share price - 90% of what influences the Argo share price is the price of bitcoin (and the wider crypto space) and unless you think Elon Musk is hiding behind this alias called HarChris then yeah my comments won't shift the price even one cent!

Also I'd like to be transparent - I'm not invested currently but I rate Argo as a company and particularly Peter Wall as a CEO. The reason I'm here is because I think bitcoin has a hard few weeks/months ahead before things get better and inevitably that will have some knock on effect here, even if nothing too major. Some would say just invest now but if I'm confident that things get worse before they get better surely it's wise to act on that?

Mittenator how about a friendly online sportsman's bet? We take your prediction and we take mine and we remind the BB regularly so whoever is wrong is exposed. I'm very happy to be wrong but it'll make it interesting. So mine is this:

'Before June is out Bitcoin will dip below $29k and Argo will fall below 105'

Personally I think it will happen before May is out but I'm not taking a sportsman's bet on that - deal?! There's no sticky function here but we can bump our predictions to the top every few days to remind us! :)