Member Info for HarChris

Whilst some on here talk about attempting to overthrow the BOD because David hasn't said hello or rns'd figures we already know it looks like behind the scenes there is a lot going on.

The biggest problem previously was the inability to draw in institutional investment, not PIs, so why now are many complaining that he isn't acquiescing to PIs short term needs? That sort of short term thinking which Graham employed is not going to give us the sorts of returns we're all itching for here...

Where did I mention a contract win with the DHSC/NHS? I didn't, that was you making that bit up.

The broader point is that PCR testing will almost certainly rise from now to the new year as people start ordering tests when they come down with a winter virus/cold - this could once again translate into higher revenues that would offset the £3m lost which was reported a few weeks back.

It's not a case of not being able to give guidance butchers, they have already given guidance and reiterated it twice. Otherwise yeah I think the uncertainty means they still won't know for sure what the full year will come in at so what's the point of downgrading guidance by a few million only to then upgrade it again if we win a big winter winterplex contract?

The £3m isn't significant enough to cause a downgrade, that's pretty obvious.

I've been of the opinion from the start that the £100m was conservative and erring on the side of caution as is understandable with how uncertain the covid testing landscape is - was expecting an upgrade in guidance a few months ago which now I'm not but still think we'll come in narrowly above £100m.

It's only guidance, if they were expecting around a £100m then they still are expecting around £100m minus £3m - if they expected it to most likely come in a tad higher then there's definitely no need to reiterate it once again.

Guidance is never exact, the clue's in the name, no? Surely the lack of reply suggests the guidance is unchanged?

But Soder they've reiterated guidance of £100m numerous times publicly, there's no reason to do it again.

The £3m loss doesn't affect the guidance as they have not downgraded it since - I assume we were going to come in over the £100m guidance and now it will be about bang on...

Well seeing as we are currently being valued close to cash the market is pricing in a very steep drop in covid revenue next year anyway so, at this price, it shouldn't make much difference if they aren't approved!

It's likely that DA is attempting to draw a line under the old administration and is making us wait until he's ready to start turning up the volume. In the meantime it's worth reposting our MVP Poidster's message from a few weeks back:

I'll reiterate what I said last night.
1) 100s of Q machines already deployed into the UK NHS market, other countries do exist, so in total many more are out there.
2) These Q machines have proven to be both usable, efficient and accurate.
3) Said instrumentation is now well established, embedded and now providing a valuable role in the fight against Covid. The labs I'm in contact with are using it for AED patients.
4) Given the breadth of the Novacyt catalogue of tests, labs are already looking at how else they can use these instruments, or indeed buy more of them.
5) Novacyt are engaging with their user base to find out how they can help in other areas, of which there are many.
6) The Q instruments are now a gateway to changing the method of delivery for diagnostics, instead of centralised lab testing, it can now be reliably used as a point of care test.
7) CoPrep makes this even easier and removes user error.
8) Novacyt are far and away the leaders in this new field of diagnostics.
9) Their remit goes way beyond human infectious diseases, quicker cancer diagnosis, animal testing, environmental testing, food production industries, honestly the list goes on
10) They have a very healthy revenue stream from Promate that will continue, IMHO for AT LEAST another 2 years globally
11) They are now embedded in the UK NHS market, they can leverage this platform to sell a greater variety of tests into this market and are asking their users to help shape this development.
12) It's very early days, mistakes have been made but its never anything to do with the R&D, which is what they are best at.

I could go on but I'm starting to bore myself now. Bottom line for me is the fundamentals of the company, Covid will provide a financial platform that will enable them to mature and develop quicker than even Novacyt thought possible.
Long term hold as I've always said.
I'm not happy with the SP atm but happy to wait it out, quality always shines.

Anything with risk involved is a gamble, investing in the FTSE is still a gamble but with lower risk and smaller rewards.

Calling AIM stocks in the short term is very much akin to gambling at the casino but that doesn't mean every investment, every trade on an AIM company is a complete gamble. The index isn't stopping novacyt from growing as a business, the poor price action isn't preventing them from winning contracts etc...

Choose the right company and even if AIM completely **** you over there is always the option for the coming to simply delist and move onto the main market to realise proper value.

@jaspertown don't beat yourself up, that's hindsight for you - it could just have easily gone the other way and you'd be patting yourself on the back for being brave or opportunistic.

If you're going to do any evaluation at least try to understand what the key events were that led to the fall like the dispute and try to take something away from it rather than just writing this off as a stupid mistake full stop.

I do agree StarBright but at the very least we need to continue to test admissions to hospital as well as screening as many positives as possible to keep track of mutations - novacyt only needs a small share of the remaining testing market to easily justify today's share price sans all the acquisitions/expansion that'll come once the £100m cash pile is deployed...

Still not sure why you are so insistent on making the same point though.

PI100 we all know covid revenue is likely to drop off and so does the market, otherwise we would be valued at about £12 a share on this year's financials - the key questions are around the extent of the change in covid testing, how much of that smaller market will ncyt claim and how well can the network that ncyt has built over the past two years be successfully leveraged to enable a smooth transition and continued growth as we move beyond this pandemic.

The covid backdrop is still relevant but yes perhaps less so than a few posters on here appear to think.

It is sweet of you to care so much about other investors but the truth is those buying in on the IPO will have known the risks - I doubt anyone threw the house at an AIM penny stock IPO.

On the contrary I'm sure many took a much bigger punt when the share price fell to almost 1p and will have been rewarded handsomely so perhaps when you're lying in bed thinking about all your fellow investors try focusing on all those smiley faces that made a fortune along the way :)

When you look at the valuations of its competitors it is clear that the DHSC dispute is continuing to cast a dark cloud over the share price despite the attempts by the company to draw somewhat of a line under it with its write offs and the spelling out of the worst case scenario. As frustrating for us as that is there is reason to believe that even a fairly poor resolution for novacyt will see the share price increase simply for the fact that it's over and done with. A resolution win and this rerates overnight.

I still think this investment for those able to buy more down here will be very much worth the wait.

What are you talking about Surfie? I was responding to a specific post at about 3.30pm yesterday when that poster came on here to tell us they were about to move 30% of their ncyt holding into to sng, it was said to highlight the better short term returns as SNG was on the move...

In fact he caught the weekly high and SNG went on to drop 9-10% since whilst NCYT stayed level.

I agree with you Kaeren but I just like to emphasise that I'm here because I believe in the company being successful with or without covid going forward, I am not relying on big surges and lockdowns etc. I don't think it will be as simple as covid vs non covid revenue especially as we move further into the decentralised testing space. I imagine we'll continue to make meaningful revenue from covid long term (especially in relation to today's market cap) but it will all be bundled together once we recognise that covid testing is remaining in place in perpetuity.

So Syn00gold did you move 30% of your funds from here yesterday over to sng when you said you were? Since then ncyt are dead level and synairgen have fallen 8%...

Short term trading on AIM isn't easy.

But PI100 we aren't primarily selling to the UK so what matters to novacyt covid-wise is that the pandemic is flairing up in different places at different times, keeping testing revenue consistently high throughout the year...

I'm sure in six months time all the ncyt news will be non covid related.

@byp you're right you've never said that, sorry. I was referring to this which made me think you thought comparing market cap to pre covid revenue was still relevant:

'EKF are a stable company, as you said earlier and I said last week, they have repeated proven revenues. Covid didn’t actually boost their value that much. Only changed by 3 multiples. NCYT even at this price is 14 times the multiples from Feb 2020.'

There is a reason for the above, ncyt has been radically transformed by the pandemic whilst the other has seen a small boost in revenue and profits. The rest of my thinking was laid out yesterday so won't go repeating that again.

Ps I agree with most of what you just wrote at 07:47... I'm sure in reality our views aren't that far apart.