Member Info for HarChris

Not disagreeing and not belittling an important public sector job - I'm just saying that he is genuinely a road sweeper whilst pretending on here to be an investment banker.

I was thinking about all the panic and desperation over the share price and comparing it with how the actual directors and staff must be feeling when I realised a quite staggering fact... if novacyt shut down and ceased trading (an apocalypse, I don't know?!) and only had to continue to pay their on going costs such as permanent staff, rent, utilities etc the business would survive for more than 5 years with ease before they were forced to raise money - yes five years! You could not say that for many listed businesses, if any...

There is SO much time to prudently build out this business.

Ps if the investment banker you spoke to was Tiger16 from LSE then trust me he isn't an investment banker, he actually is a road sweeper.

Did you watch the AGM? Have you seen the board of directors? They aren't exactly the Wolf of Wall Street! The one thing that is likely true is that they are not bothered about the share price declining, they know it won't make any difference in the long term.

I've been saying this for a while now but we have to remember that two absolutely massive transitions are going on - this is the period where the company will be moving away from 'covid stock' to multinational diagnostics biz and this is being led by a CEO that's been in the job for just a few weeks. Navigating this successfully is no meat feat and AIM is fickle so traders, shorters etc fully aware that there might be a news void will take advantage - long term holders might start reducing with this knowledge in the hope to buy back more shares later down the road etc etc

What do you think David thinks if he sees messages screaming for news, desperately pleading for him to sort the share price out??? I think he'll be thinking 'give me 5 f**** minutes for god's sake! The company is in rude health but the share price isn't going to recover through any short term remedies, it will recover if the man tasked with the job is free to go about it in the best way possible.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/nov/05/portsmouth-gp-who-gambled-away-11m-of-nhs-money-is-jailed

Ncyt's very own...

As a large shareholder WBAFC you should know that Graham's strategy has been to maximise the 'covid opportunity' and so all focus is on that currently - we are likely to see that all change soon but it takes more than three weeks for a CEO to lay out a comprehensive long term strategy - especially taking over a company that has been solely focused on selling goods in a pandemic.

Imagine one was to invest now at 230p, what do you think is more likely in a year's time - 460p or 0p? Is it 60/40 to double vs bankruptcy? No there's virtually no chance of the latter and a pretty decent chance of the former.

Just a simple example of asymmetric upside.

@poidster I was saying earlier how if novacyt are able to make just 50% of the covid revenue and profit they will make this year for the years to come then the current market cap valuation of £165m is more than fully justified from that covid revenue alone.

Every future acquisition, every bit of valuable IP, all the R&D capability, every new non covid revenue stream comes free...

Once things get this bleak share-price wise it's very hard to look at an investment rationally but the odds are stupidly skewed in our favour at this price, stupidly so.

Not the point. They've never once put out Q3 results so why would they for the first ever time in the middle of a top management handover? They wouldn't.

It's David's job to set a different tone going forward, perhaps next year we'll see him revert to quarterly reporting...

Once again... never in the history of this company has there been a set of Q3 results - acting like they've just not bothered this year is patently misleading.

I think that's true deos but the market turns on a dime - we see that time and time again.

Did I really just write nilly willy?!?!

Why does the approval of paxlovid change the covid landscape for novacyt so? In order to be prescribed paxlovid you are going to need to be tested first... doctor's aren't going to prescribe strong antivirals usually given to treat HIV patients nilly willy.

POC covid testing is likely to become the norm.

In other words novacyt merely have to hold onto half of their global covid business to justify today's share price with everything else thrown in for free.

Covid is still relevant for this investment though - we agree that covid is with us forever now and we (I assume) agree that testing will remain in place indefinitely too. So let's imagine the possibility that novacyt are able to turnover £50m a year from covid with a net profit of about £15m - that right there alone would more than justify today's current market cap of £160m in its entirety...

Everything else - the IP, the R&D, the £100m cash is not even priced in.

Aren't stop losses designed to help with discipline? Not much point if you keep moving them before they execute!

Thought your stop loss was 230p? It definitely hit that 10 mins ago...

They don't give a monkey about shareholders but nor do any BODs, let's be honest. The whole system works off mutual benefit but whilst novacyt have no institutional investors to keep onside and are financially self-sufficient they don't need to acquiesce to shareholders, they can focus wholly on building long term shareholder value.

We are like the random girl in the night club right now and they are Harry Styles, we are waiting by the phone hoping he texts but he's not even thinking about us, he's already back in LA sunning himself and is shacking up with someone new.

But in time he'll need us and will come crawling back...

It's a good question @byp and my honest answer is I don't know but it's certainly quite possible. At the very least there is certainly no disadvantage for the share price being lower right now, you could argue it's an advantage as it may actually help David to get IIs on board - it's a much easier sell for him at this price than it is say 100% higher...

It's for that reason that despite sitting on a lot of cash I'm not going gung ho, even though I'm extremely confident of making good returns from this price - I do think it's possible that we hear nothing for another few weeks and this drops lower.

I am indeed starting to do a Porky except in a much more low key way - no ramping from me or pretending all is rosy here! There are many good shares out there CO but I happen to be very wary of a stock market crash so have the majority of my portfolio sitting in cash now. Investing here at this price is relatively low risk in my opinion, if the stock market crashes novacyt shouldn't suffer much, it might even benefit. If it crashes because covid gets uglier this winter then it will definitely benefit.

Hence I'm just moving my cash into novacyt rather than choosing to invest in novacyt over something else - no opportunity cost for me.