Member Info for HarChris

This is from the 30th September rns - Based on existing capacity and previous orders, Argo's mining capacity is expected to be 1.7 Exahash by mid-Q4 2021.

'last quarter results were based on 1.075 exahash, Argo's mining capacity is expected to be 1.7 Exahash by mid-Q4 2021'.

I think as things stand mining difficulty expected to be about 25-30% higher in Q4 than Q3 so if they reach that 1.7EH they'll definitely be mining considerably more coins in Q4 than Q3...

All I ever hear on here is 'so bitcoin goes up we go down, bitcoin goes down we also go down, so much for being aligned!!!'

For once can we acknowledge a day of bitcoin going down and Argo rising 5%?

Pretty positive movement this side of the pond.

Well IT IS cost £10m and achieved net profit of £0.8m in 2019, plus able to achieve much greater figures as part of the much larger novacyt group.

EKF just made an acquisition for an initial $10m + performance bonuses which, for the first half of the year, has EBITDA of $2.6m (covid inflated, granted).

There's a lot that can be done with £100m I think.

Tl;dr if the share price is only so low because Graham was slow to push forward with non covid plans / uninterested in anything other than maximising covid revenue short term then surely once David Allmond shows his hand the share price will start to recover?

What you've got to remember is that this time last year we weren't even expected to still be making much revenue (if at all) from covid testing and yet the share price was above £10! So we were valued 4 times higher based on crazy sentiment (see what can happen on AIM) and the belief that this windfall + the new focus on diagnostics post the worst pandemic in 100 years would transform this company.

Fast forward a year and we are about to post £100m revenue without anything from the DHSC contracts. Where we both agree is that we're down here because we have no idea what the future holds BUT you've got to at least agree that that must be being fleshed out now by the new CEO and his team???

So it's not about relying on high case numbers, it's recognising that these high case numbers should translate into more cash for novacyt which gives the company even more firepower for whatever plans they have next.

Well some might have been saying that all year but I wasn't one of them Surfie... When the DHSC dispute news landed there was the potential for things to get a lot worse before they got better, which is what happened. However, for the first time pretty much this year we have found a floor, the DHSC dispute was long enough ago for there to be hope of a resolution soon and we have a new man in charge that is likely to be more savvy on the PR front (essential for AIM listed companies).

So for the first time this year 'to sit and wait' is likely to be the best course of action.

You keep saying this PI100 but even though you personally believe cases don't matter so much post-vaccine other nations don't seem to be listening to you - PCR testing remains high, cases are rising which suggests even greater testing to come which is all very relevant to novacyt.

I think it's as simple as AIM not actually being forward looking, it's full of short termist punters trying to make a quick buck. We've experienced a year of lower and lower lows and RNS's that have sent the share price down once again so those punters aren't interested right now. They go after anything with a bit of buzz about it which might turn out to be the next 'multibagger'

Eventually the tide will turn though and this will come good.

As below Davand, as far as we know novacyt are turning over £2m each and every week currently + we have around £90m in cash to fall back on.

Cannot compare odx with ncyt though, I agree although the mcaps are not too far apart.

So a £750k order, of which profit will be just a fraction of that, boosts the mcap (at least temporarily at least) by close to £10m?

I think we're going to be dandy here once the news tap is turned on...

A slaughtering? Why?

Sounds like the 3-0 away loss to Fulham has got to you.

We've got to assume full year revenue will be very close to £100m if we hear nothing within in a few weeks.

The start of the flu season is still about three to four weeks away in Europe so things are only going to get worse from this time next month...

We are all entitled to our opinions and mine of Graham is not one of a deceptive, manipulative man but one of integrity. I don't think at any point he misled us as shareholders or even whipped up false hysteria, the share price simply spiked because of the massive contract with the DHSC. It is possible everything that has happened since lays at his feet, it's possible that he has shown naivety in regards to that contract but as I can't say for sure I'd prefer to hold off judgement on that front.

As it happens if Graham was still in charge I would not have as much money invested as I do now. He may have been the right person to see novacyt flourish but I don't think he was the right person to maximise shareholder returns. AIM is a different beast to the other markets and fundamentals do not necessarily win out in the end of the day, sentiment and hype (to a certain extent) are just as important. Growth needs to be seen to be aggressively targeted. I was convinced last year that covid revenue would only be one stream of income by now, even arguing quite profusely with Captain Stanley on here that we'd see a detailed strategic plan being executed in early 2021 and now we're a year later still waiting for that next phase.

Still, I found the muted AGM all a bit sad.

'had Argo not gone to Nasdaq, might we already be £2+ with bitcoin at 60k?'

Well without a big placing/large refinancing Argo would currently be a stalling bitcoin miner losing significant ground in the hash rate stakes with no means to build Texas - so either Texas would have been scrapped and the share price would be lower due to a poor growth outlook or you'd have the threat of a placing looming large which would probably have pushed the share price even lower than it already is.

What matters to novacyt is how many PCR tests are being conducted daily, both in the UK and wherever else we sell to - the most recent UK figure was 435000. Many of the positives will also be screened by our bioinformatics team.

There is significant covid revenue to be won for some time to come.

Our growth depends partly on the wider covid context over the next few years as well as bolt on acquisitions. We are going from a loss making company turning over £11m to one that made £133m with revenue of £277m to then ~£100m.

We are not an established FTSE company, we aren't in any sort of normal situation here and so the company won't be in a position to accurately forecast revenue well into the future. All we should be requiring now is a path towards long term clarity, not overnight but constant progression towards that.

That's why those of us investing are putting our trust in the company to navigate the choppy waters ahead successfully and it is probably why there isn't any II investment currently. This is the nature of the situation and to invest you have to accept that - if it's not a situation you are comfortable with there are thousands of other companies you can invest in instead.