Member Info for HarChris

Obviously I don't know your current position Hexam but I'd be interested to know this - if BTC were to fall to sort of low some are predicting (let's call it ~$21k and Argo dropped into the low 30s would you be doubling down in that situation? Would you see it as the biggest opportunity or would you start worrying about the further downside risks?

Yes, but more than that difficulty hasn't adjusted down as BTC has fallen -since this time last year BTC is down 31% whilst global hash rate is up 40%.

@Hexam thanks and yeah at least some insolvency risk is being priced in now as you see by the huge drops across the board. If BTC is suppressed/low for an extended period it really will be interesting to see how it all plays out, you'd imagine some go to the wall/at least have their ability to keep with their peers curtailed whilst some might be in the position to buy up those cheaper machines and get well ahead of the rest prior to another bull run.

Whatever happens an extended period of low BTC will mean miners dumping more and more of their HODL onto the market, the polar opposite to what was happening throughout the bull run.

In your opinion Hexam are the large public traded miners robust enough to endure a long 'crypto winter' or is it possible many of them will end up in the hands of the receivers after committing to such large hash rate expansion?

They are selling bitcoin now so it matters.

What you've got to remember is that making big returns investing isn't easy, AIM stocks are always inherently riskier than large, established ftse companies (and either those can give you a bloody nose if you're unlucky). The majority lose money on AIM, even the professional experts get many calls wrong and it's never sensible to put all your eggs in one basket. Many of the rampers will have been genuine and have believed what they were saying and lost a lot of money themselves, they are just wannabe day traders dreaming of giving up the 9-5 life like many others.

Imo making above average returns in the stock market is a combination of good research, sound judgement, experience and a hell of a lot of luck.

Does it? Or does it just mean that Chinese miners know they can get away with mining and selling that bitcoin for profit - in general unless there's a reversal of the crypto ban you won't see widespread adoption in China...

So from that article what we're saying is a) crypto is still banned in China and b) miners are getting around the ba/ it's not really being enforced - so no real positive news story for crypto but higher global hash rate all the same?

What are you talking about? There’s a difference between it being good for Bitcoin/crypto and it being good for North American Bitcoin miners - the former I certainly agree with, the latter I don’t (which is relevant for this investment)

Ps wouldn’t it be funny if it turns out Chaebol shorted the bottom?

I am talking about Helios though Hexam as that is the reality in not so long - just unsure why anyone would celebrate China’s return to the mining space when barriers to entry are so low as to potentially drive global hash rate so high to make Argo unprofitable at these BTC prices even with Helios at 200MW -

I don't see how this is good for Argo though, the barriers to entry are so low and there's a risk that difficulty runs so hot that Argo is barely profitable even @$30k... ?

Good luck, thinking of averaging up slightly on my long this morning if I can get ~50p - if 80k BTC was absorbed as Luna dumped then that speaks volumes for its robustness...

So you've opened another short on Argo? What price so we can follow along to see how well it's going, 50p was it?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-11/russian-ruble-surpasses-brazilian-real-as-world-s-best-currency

More than that it's stronger than it was pre invasion and the strongest its been vs the dollar/euro etc in 2 years.

AB that's certainly true, Michael Saylor's involvement in the bitcoin mining council was for that very reason imo, to encourage miners to play their part in keeping supply tight through a HODL strategy and to have influence over them. I also imagine PW bought into the narrative that deep painful bitcoin bear cycles were a thing of the past and BTC was only going to be fought over more and more as inflation eats into everyone's wealth and instis gobble it up.

It's been said numerous times over the past year to eighteen months that things are different now, that BTC won't play out based on its historical past and yet no one seems to be at all concerned by the downturn?

I don't think bitcoin has a chance of becoming a global payment system or a currency, for that its fixed supply is counterproductive and too much of the network is already in the hands of too few. I can still see the digital store of value rationale as having legitimacy but can someone answer me this, if the big problem is inflation eroding one's dollars isn't that what the stock market is for? Hasn't S&P returns outpaced inflation since time immemorial? Isn't a big index tracker the ultimate store of value?

My word you lack basic comprehension skills if you really think that.

Afraid not - you said 'the media was all inflation has peaked but the data came out and it hadn't peaked, it actually went up a notch' (paraphrasing).

That is incorrect, it didn't go up a notch it fell slightly suggesting inflation may have peaked.

Actually it went down a notch, albeit still slightly higher than what was being predicted.