Member Info for happysparrow

Sandwiches - couldn't let you get away with this nonsense.
Check out the Brexit Facts4EU website sometime.
See article of February 1st: Clean Brexit must be winning when BBC bias gets this bad.
Extract:
'Then we could look at ‘Stronger In’ which was the official Remain organisation during the Referendum campaign. As we reported at the time, they claimed that 200,000 businesses traded with the EU, which was just 3.6% of all UK businesses at that time.
It is therefore patently absurd to suggest that the IOD survey shows that a “Third of UK businesses considering move abroad”, as the BBC has reported today.'
DYOR
(Apologies to others for off-topic).

Good point, Viticoltore.
The warrants I can see outstanding are 5,777,310 @11.9p; and 7,500,000 @ 8p. If exercised this will bring in capital to IOG of £1,287,500.
There are currently 126,706,042 shares. The exercised warrants will add 13,277,310 shares. I cannot see this leading to a change of ownership.
As Citizenlane points out, IOG states that there is no mechanism under which LOG can demand early repayment. If there was, and the loans also were converted to shares, then yes indeed this would result in LOG owning a majority of shares.
Hope I've understood this correctly. Please correct me if I'm wrong.
ATB

Thanks for the links 600T.
I expect no change in IOG's loan terms, and the bonds to be repaid on the basis of the original contracted conditions.

This is from LCF:
I am an LCF borrower. What will happen to my loan?
It may be as part of the process of ensuring that payments to bondholders can resume, borrowers will make repayments of their loans to LCF earlier than was intended when those loans were originally made. However, discussions with borrowers about this possibility are still at a very early stage, and any changes to repayment would only be made if these were mutually beneficial to both borrowers and bondholders. Both LCF and the Security Trustee on behalf of the bondholders are well aware of the desirability of replacement funding to be in place if early repayment of LCF loans were to occur, and that this is likely to take a reasonable period of time to achieve. '

600T - an update - ATB:
See save our shores Bournemouth website; new article in Bournemouth Echo + DWT statement.

BE extract:
The drilling, which is intended to assess oil levels at Colter and the feasibility of extraction, has to be completed by February 28.
Campaigners say “it is looking increasingly unlikely that Corallian will be able to complete the project within their allocated time period”.
However yesterday the firm told the Echo the operation will only take three weeks.
“At the end of the operation the well will be permanently plugged and abandoned, leaving nothing on the seabed.
“Once the proposed drilling operations have been completed, regardless of the outcome, Corallian currently has no plans to return to the location.”

Well, what happens on February 28th, they are unfinished, and their permission runs out? (Note: their Wick drill seemed to go on longer than expected.). As said, they are cutting it fine.

I looked at Marine traffic site this morning (too, see lse UOG comments). Estimated Time of Arrival was midnight Friday/Saturday morning. I think it is still heading to Bournemouth. Maybe the protesters will take out a last-minute injunction as the drill period (though may well only take 20 days?) could extend into the seahorse spawning period. Further bad weather or drilling problems may well scupper it. Cutting it fine, and anyone's guess at this stage.
However, not sure we would be ready with Harvey yet, anyway.

Possible delay / cancellation?

SOS Save Our Shores
9 hrs ·
We have received copies of Corallian's drilling permits from OPRED. They plan to discharge up to 6,753 tons of drilling chemicals directly in to our bay, including 8 tons of biocide! We will continue to do everything we can to oppose this. #SayNoToTheRig

ENSCO-72 oil rig delayed for Poole Bay drilling | Bournemouth Echo
https://www.bournemouthecho.co.uk/.../17389620.ensco-72-oil-rig-delayed-for-pool...

Good article posted by Timberwolf on a d v f n:

hTTps://www.energymixreport.com/proposed-construction-of-katsina-refinery-stalled/

Agree, Trustatrade. I tend to use technicals just a little to help me with timing of an investment, but quality of investment is based on other criteria. By their nature BB change of direction recommendations will come after the actual rise/fall event has started to take place - thus it is the market outlook that usually is of most interest - and to be fair to BB they have been signalling for a few days now that this share was becoming more bullish each day. But I find it useful as confirmation of general direction of trade when it also agrees with the RSI(20), the moving averages, and the general feel you get from the volume of trades, the spread, market maker tricks, bulletin board comments, etcetera. So just one piece of the jigsaw. I'm better at it than I use to be (I hope).
Good Luck.

RSI(20) beginning to rise off the oversold line.
British Bulls now a BUY recommendation - Market Outlook - The bulls have strong evidence on their side and this evidence prompts us to make a bullish bet. The bullish pattern that was previously identified is finally confirmed and a BUY signal is generated. It is probably the right time to be part of this boost and bullish market sentiment. The market is telling you about a possible new profit. Do not miss this chance.

Good luck, GG, in every way. Hope all goes well for your family soon.

Agree, Zen, glad if the warrants don't get taken up.

Maybe when they run out of expansive ambitions for their cash they'll start up some buy-back scheme (RRE and ELA two recent examples).

600T - hope his helps:

From interims of 27th Sept:
Funding and liquidity
The Board has reviewed the Group’s cash flow forecasts up until December 2019 having regard to its current
financial position and operational objectives. These forecasts indicate that the Group will need additional
funding to enable it to meet its liabilities as they fall due in the next eighteen months. The Board is satisfied
that the Group will have sufficient financial resources available to meet its commitments based on the amount
of available cash within the Group, its existing debt facilities that can be drawn down, the likelihood of it being
able to secure additional funding from existing stakeholders or new investors and to agree either the
rescheduling of certain existing liabilities to creditors or conversion of such amounts to equity. Additionally,
the Group can cut discretionary expenditure and reduce financing requirements further....

What has changed here is perhaps securing additional funding from LOG - but not new investors.

From 4th January RNS:
Under the total of £38.55m loan facility agreements signed between IOG and LOG between December 2015 and September 2018 (the “LOG Facilities”), sums owed by IOG to LOG are only repayable within 36 months of their drawdown and there is no mechanism under which LOG can demand early repayment save in an event of default by the Company. The Company has to date drawn a total of £30.7m under the LOG Facilities of which £0.7m is held in cash and £3.05m is due to be repaid in the next six months. The Company currently has further availability under the LOG Facilities of £7.85m. LOG has today re-confirmed to IOG that all sums agreed to be lent to IOG remain available to the Company and LOG has not received any call on any of its funds from LCF.

The thing to note is the £3m payable in the next 6 months - this would seem to need additional financing?

From Harvey Funding RNS:
Highlights
£15 million non-convertible loan facility (the “Harvey Facility”) now closed with London Oil and Gas Limited (“LOG”), on terms as previously announced:
Proceeds to fund Harvey appraisal well and other corporate and project costs, including full repayment of final remaining Skipper liabilities.
Five-year maturity and interest rate of LIBOR+9% per annum;
20,000,000 warrants issued, exercisable at 32.18p, a 10% premium to the closing price of IOG shares on 16 August 2018.

So Harvey seems to be funded OK - but not sure about the Bacton Purchase?

Again from interims:
Cash balance at period end of £4.61 million.
Post tax loss for the six months ended 30 June 2018 was £2.56 million.

So, in summary, they seem to be running things close to the wire. I think they can cover Bacton and Harvey just, but not the £3m loan repayment in June, but perhaps that can be re-scheduled. However, expecting FID soon, and well before June, which should take care of all cashflow.

Seems ensco72 heading to Bournemouth soon (not Harvey). But not all done and dusted yet? This is from Save our Shores Bournemouth:
SOS Save Our Shores added an event.
21 January at 00:45 ·
PROTEST Sat 26 Jan! Say No to the Rig! The oil Rig is on it's way to Poole Bay! Come tell the oil companies "We Don't Want Your Dirty Rig!" Bring placards and banners if you have them. But please come. And share this! #ENSCO72 #BOIL #CORALLIAN @SOSBournemouth #saveourshores

Seems ensco72 heading to Bournemouth soon (not Harvey). But not all done and dusted yet? This is from Save our Shores Bournemouth:
SOS Save Our Shores added an event.
21 January at 00:45 ·
PROTEST Sat 26 Jan! Say No to the Rig! The oil Rig is on it's way to Poole Bay! Come tell the oil companies "We Don't Want Your Dirty Rig!" Bring placards and banners if you have them. But please come. And share this! #ENSCO72 #BOIL #CORALLIAN @SOSBournemouth #saveourshores

Vox markets over christmas period SS says news on Tunisia/Sarawak due in Jan/Feb.
A lot of buying today at 1.8p but price not shifting - big sell in background? - expect this to rise rapidly once sell cleared?

rxdav - I've some sympathy with that view. I returned to shares about 4 years ago, only to put a lot into Globo (CEO sold out £46m days before fraud squad called in - and still FCA seem to do nothing). But thankfully hit luck by picking PANR and shifting that to SOU. Put me well ahead, but torrid since, which brought me back to square one - and much due to believing too much in some less than scrupulous, or incompetent, CEO's. So one of my main criteria now is quality of management - if I don't like them, nor trust them, or don't think they are up to it, I don't invest, regardless of how good the investment case is.
Another criteria for me is, if there is a genuine red flag (I feel the TW scare here is just a storm in a tea cup), then I get out straight away, even at a loss. Have been burnt too many times.
But yes, always a gamble.
All the best.

Good Luck rxdav.
For me I've tripled my holding at this low price so now 20% of my portfolio. Clearly confident here.
Each to their own, of course.
Good Luck All.

Well, as we write, the MMs are doing their best to push this down (13.45 - 13.97 quoted) - but seems like little interest in trading this share either way currently. Can't see it staying below 15p for long; expect it to move up to 20 to 25p range once these shorters get fed up and move on .

rxdav: regards 'do I sell out now, take the loss, and buy back in (likely much cheaper if dilution if heavy - but not guaranteed) when the funding is (hopefully) announced. There is the issue that I could miss out on an unexpected buy out in the meanwhile and furthermore completion of Becton and/or the Harvey spud could offer an attractive spike - oh for a crystal ball eh !?!?'

My view is that this is already at the bottom. Dilution, of course, only comes with the FID (and may come after the secured debt funding, rather than simultaneously, as GG has suggested is a hopeful possibility) [- if they need some short-term cash (eg , Bacton purchase, Harvey Apraisal) then I would think they can dip into their £7.85m loan facility]. I think positive news (and investor relief) of achieving FID, when it eventually comes, will far outweigh the probably simultaneous negative news of the extent of dilution - even if 'heavy'. Too, you wouldn't want to miss out on Bacton purchase, and even more on a successful Harvey appraisal. By Easter we will know where we are with Brexit hopefully (I want to leave on WTO terms, but that's a different matter; and the oil price should be steady at about $65 if the US/Sino trade talks go well, and OPEC cuts hold). Fairly easy decision in my view - but, of course, your money; and always good to keep all under active review.

Thanks for that, mcsquares; top post.
Any idea how soon you think we might wait for yields to return to 9%, and why?