Member Info for happysparrow

From RNS:
WNEL have advised that the POD is expected to be approved within Q1 2019. Approval of the POD will be another significant milestone for the project and the Company.

From RNS:
Once a GSA is signed / FID has been made, these resources will automatically be upgraded to reserves, and classified as proved, probable and possible. Negotiations on the GSA are underway and progressing as expected.

From RNS:
A drilling campaign is being planned to comprise an appraisal well within the Mako gas field and a well to test the Tambak prospect. Further announcements regarding the upcoming drilling program will be made in due course.

Thanks 600T.

One correction: RSI(20) is at oversold line , not 'undersold' (I guess people got my drift, though).

Now, where were we? Ah... yes:

Regards BUTD's statement: 'Technicals look terrible, fundamentals even worse'

Technicals:
Bandit's troll count (He He - very good)
Brent: $62.7
Relative Strength Index (20) now at undersold line - from which it usually rises.
British Bulls 18/01/19 - Market Outlook - With the bullish pattern detected today candlesticks warned short sellers to be on alert. Market sentiment may be changing in the direction of the bulls.
British Bulls 19/01/19 - Market Outlook - Bear market rallies may be vicious reversals, giving HARD TIMES TO THOSE HOLDING SHORT POSITIONS; so, it is better to be on alert.

Fundamentals:
Assets: £ 688m
Market Cap: £18.4m
Unused loan facility: £ 7.85m

I say 'looks' definite, for that's the environmental permits approved. However, I think the Minister still has to sign off on it? Too, maybe they will still face a legal challenge? Worth keeping an eye on the Bournemouth Echo and the facebook page of Save Our Shores Bournemouth over the next few weeks; and too, the actual Ensco-72 sea passage.

Courtesy of Steelwatch on a d v f n RBD:
Be assured, it's going ahead! FRASER WELL MANAGEMENT LIMITED DRA/548 Colter 98/11 Well Type Appraisal MoDU Ensco 72 Platform None EIA Direction (Direction to Undertake Drilling Operations) DR/1532/0 4th January 2019 22nd November 2018 Completed (Approved) 17th January 2019 28th February 2019 FRASER WELL MANAGEMENT LIMITED DRA/548 Colter 98/11 Well Type Appraisal MoDU Ensco 72 Platform None Consent to Locate a Mobile Installation CL/894/0 4th January 2019 22nd November 2018 Completed (Approved) 17th January 2019 28th February 2019 FRASER WELL MANAGEMENT LIMITED DRA/548 Colter 98/11 Well Type Appraisal MoDU Ensco 72 Platform None Consent to Undertake a Geophysical Survey (Vertical Seismic Profile (VSP)) GS/840/0 4th January 2019 1st January 2019 Completed (Approved) 17th January 2019 28th February 2019 FRASER WELL MANAGEMENT LIMITED DRA/548 Colter 98/11 Well Type Appraisal MoDU Ensco 72 Platform None Chemical Permit CP/1788/0 7th December 2018 22nd November 2018 Completed (Approved) 17th January 2019 28th February 2019 https://itportal.beis.gov.uk/eng/fox/beis/PETS_EXTERNAL_PUBLICATION/main The Chemical Permit is listed in 2018 with the other 3 in 2019.

So that looks definite then.
On the plus side for us Brent is now at $62.69 as OPEC has published what each member needs to cut. The market thinks this transparency means OPEC is more likely to keep its word on the cuts. I think this brings FID a little closer.

RPT-COLUMN-Oil prices expected to stay anchored around $65-70 through 2023: Kemp
John Kemp
4 MIN READ

(Repeats earlier column. John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

* Chartbook: tmsnrt.rs/2HebsXA

By John Kemp

LONDON, Jan 15 (Reuters) - Oil prices are expected to oscillate close to current levels well into the next decade, averaging around $65-70 per barrel through 2023, according to an annual survey of energy professionals conducted by Reuters.

Despite the recent slump in oil prices, forecasts have edged down by less than $5 per barrel compared with the last annual survey conducted at the start of 2018 and have changed little over the last three years.

Long-term expectations for the average price of Brent crude remain anchored around $70 per barrel, close to the $72 average realised in 2018 (tmsnrt.rs/2HebsXA).

The results are based on the responses from just over 1,000 energy market professionals to a poll conducted between Jan. 8 and Jan. 11.

Brent prices in 2019 are expected to average $65 per barrel, unchanged from surveys in 2016, 2017 and 2018.

continues.....

Oil Now:
Busy year ahead for ExxonMobil Guyana as country gallops to first oil
January 17, 2019

My reading of the chart is it usually rises once it gets to the oversold line on the RSI (20). And that's at 2p.

Thanks 600T. That looks pretty definitive then, (unless poor journalism).

'In November last year, UK-based Corallian Energy revealed its plan to commence a two-well work programme, starting with the drilling of the Wick well, followed by drilling of Colter scheduled for Q1 2019. All necessary approvals are in place.....'

Thanks jumpedship, glad to have some new information. They're definitely cutting it fine on Colter if it's really going to happen this quarter.

Some news from Malcy on Oil price (oil price stability at $60+ relevant to FID imo):

WTI $52.11 +$1.60, Brent $60.64 +$1.65, Diff -$8.53 +5c, NG $3.50 -9c

Oil price
Oil rallied after the panic over the Chinese economic data as the Government stepped in to stabilise the economy, as it does. Opec+ announced a series of meetings to remind the world that it is serious about the cuts, March 17th to monitor progress and April to consider extending the time-frame.

Sorry hereandnow, but I read that as the Jethro drill in Q2, then another drill to follow, presumably Q3.

Dunderhead- Still no word as far as I know that Colter has the necessary permissions in place (and are they likely to get approval for a controversial drill in a wealthy Conservative area with the current shakiness of the government?)

Mind you, have we?

Maybe Ensco72 will just have to sit in dock until someone gets there act together.

It's your money, Tier - your decision.
The FID is waiting for the price of oil to stabilise (above $60) imo. That's likely in Q1. So definitely wait on this until April - will look very different then. (Tip: spend time researching the oil price - rather than some dubious blogger's scaremongering)

Tier, if you're genuinely concerned about buying at 27p then read the RNS of 8th Jan (written after TW's article).

Extract: Preparations continue for drilling the Harvey appraisal well, which management estimates has Prospective Resources in the Low/Best/High case of 85/129/199 BCF and 63% Geological Chance of Success. In the event of Harvey success, IOG’s portfolio would deliver 77% IRR and £688m post-tax NPV10.
Funding plans for the Core Project are advancing as detailed on 29 November 2018 with the objective of Final Investment Decision (FID) within Q1 2019. First Gas is planned to be delivered within 20 months of FID..

I doubt TW is explaining that IOG has a market cap of just £18.5 million but it's assets (with Harvey) are worth close to £700m.
I was quite happy to pay 27p+ for this share earlier- and at this current low price have filled my boots.
Cheer up, fill your boots too, and good luck.

Regards 'you are now sounding like the muppets who voted for brexit who are unable to change their views given the changing evidence of what is going on.'

Once again BUTD is showing himself to be disrespectful. under-researched and unprincipled.

'being exposed – something I am very experienced from with my past line of work.'
600T - would never have guessed you were a page 3 girl. lol.
ATB

Statoil has entered a binding letter agreement into two exploration licenses in the Thrace region in the European north-western part of Turkey.
Statoil will have a 50% interest in the Banarli licences, while the operator Valeura Energy Inc., a Canadian exploration company listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange will keep the remaining 50%. The shallow formations above 2,500 meters will be 100% retained by Valeura.

Amnesiac is a very good poster on lse UPL who I rely on for information on Ensco-72:

He has just posted:
'....
IF the latter was more accurate AND my other timing assumptions (Sun 11:22 post) fair AND there were no snags, then the bit may have pushed through the first target zones up to a day earlier. So we could now be more than 5 days beyond a point when, if no hydrocarbons were found, someone decided to continue incurring costs (drill to deeper secondary target and time since TD), rather than cut losses and go.

As for moving off to Colter, in the last day or so, the weather has taken command of that. They can't go even if they want to. Also, Colter may not be ready for the rig: BEIS is just reporting that 3 of the Colter applications were resubmitted to PETS on 4th Jan and are not yet approved https://snag.gy/btj1ke.jpg