Member Info for Happyhaddock

The way I see it, you buy and hold this share because you believe in where it may be a few years from now, or you trade this share based upon where it may be next week.

Junior explorers are inherently volatile, we can't change that, nor can we change what everybody else does. All we can control is when we buy and when we sell and with everybody having different goals everybody will have different views about when to buy and when to sell.

@silverhorse - If there's one thing I have learned about psychology is that most people should never follow their instincts ... the moment you do anything instinctively you have stopped analysing a situation critically and are likely only looking at the one side of an argument that is personally appealing.

It has taken some time as an academic to train my natural instinct to assume I may be wrong and therefore seek to explore the benefits and pitfalls of both what I think is right, and then what I think may be wrong.

In terms of investing in the commodities sector I like Rick Rule's way of phrasing it "better to make a sin of omission (ie remain scpetical and not buy something that actually does well) than a sin of commission (to act quickly and then regret losing money on a bad investment you didn't thoroughly question in advance)".

As for GGP, - I initially wrote it off as having already grown too much to fit my desire to find explorers in the earliest stage of starting exciting new projects, however in the end I decided it had passed the point of being risky and would just become a safer long term investment. I've held a few shares since about 12p and reckon it still has chance to get much higher in the long run ... If you aren't familiar with it then look the Lassonde curve to get an idea of timescales and likely moves in share price

@jwoz + mapp - thanks for the kind words - I've only ever tried to encourage others to think for themselves and provide a counter opinion where I think discussion is becoming a little too polarised. I also try to get folks to recognise there isn't a one size fits all investment suitable for all investors, so two different and conflicting opinions can both be right in terms of the individuals posting them, but neither may be right for the circumstances of the individual reading the post.

Investing really should be simple and straight forward if it was just a matter of logically analysing macro economics, fundamentals and balance sheets. The bit that makes it complicated is sentiment with everybody trying to outsmart everyone else such that prices can be moved the "wrong" way at the "wrong" time by those trying to get a competitive edge.... To understand sentiment you have to understand human psychology ... anybody who claims to understand that is simply not telling the truth, the next best option is to be less ignorant about it than those around you.

Having spent time working with XRF and doing lab based analytic work on minerals in the past , Ill second Shurething's views that a hand held XRF is a useful guide for basics out in the field but for detailed and useful numbers you want a decent lab and a bit of time to process samples to get the best data out of them.

XRF is primarily a surface analysis tool, so is only reliable on a uniform homogeneous sample, plus the hand held units aren't powerful/sensitive enough to truly give reliable data with very low concentrations.

Another point not often mentioned is the drill team getting the rock out of the ground. Most are paid by the meter so drill as quickly as they can. The "interesting stuff tends to occur at the transitions and faults between rock features which is the bit most likely to crumble and not be fully recovered. If you get 95m of clean samples from a 100m drill its a fair bet the 5m of poor recovery is where the stuff you want to find is. A "slow "drill team may recover a greater sample of clean core through diamond drilling giving a lab much more confidence in their ability to reliable extra representative data from the key parts of the sample.

That said if you get intercepts of 60m of gold bearing rock its possibly less of an issue.

@ silverhorse - I don't tip shares but if GGP is on your radar then look at OMI as a similar company that has featured heavily in my own portfolio since it was about 3p and which until yesterday looked very cheap, still does, just not as cheap Monday... probably a safer bet than UFO.

LND is a second you may want to research as it is another GGP type stock that has been in my portfolio since it was just over 1p (pre consolidation) seems cheap at the moment as well as a safer bet than UFO.

Neither are under 1p but both are in a roughly similar bracket of mkt cap to UFO through having far fewer shares in existence.

However if you are an "eggs in one basket" type of investor I'd say that although more risky, UFO probably has the best chance of delivering the biggest percentage gains over the long run as it has so many possibilities in play so you may be happy to just keep sticking any spare cash you have in here.

@ silverhorse - the notion of having confidence in something as uncertain as the future of one sentiment driven AIM listed junior minerals exploration company is somewhat oxymoronic.

I am confident in my research and confident in my understanding of the potential rewards and potential risks. I am also confident that diversification across a few of what I regard as the best junior explorers should minimise my risk of losing everything through one rogue unpredictable event.

However, companies like UFO only offer real certainty at the point they cease to be affordable junior explorers with the possibility of massive multi-bag gains.

However, there is no single right or wrong wat to trade or invest as every individual has different needs, expectations and goals. The only thing we all have in common is the hope we will make profit.

@silverhorse - if I'd taken my little speculative fund and put all of that in its entirety into just UFO at the time I first bought in I'd now be looking at significantly more than the £100k you mention, however that would have been such a reckless move at the time I'd have to have been crazy as equally I could have ended up looking at nothing at all. UFO now has much more than just hopes.

Most of my savings stay well away from such speculative things as AIM listed explorers, and my modest speculative fund I diversified across a portfolio of 16 risky plays, keeping some cash in reserve and slowly added to different positions as they became a little less risky.

You are probably right that some selling here comes from those who bought tens of millions when they were much cheaper and can just sell a few shares here and there when they need the cash... However I neither have tens of millions of shares, nor an immediate need for cash.

@dDip666 -- I'm such a natural contrarian I may just have to sell a single share just to prove you wrong and finally satisfy silverhorse's belief that I am a seller. ;-)

As for lab delays, I don't know if Max is right or wrong to infer lab delays are now sorted based upon one tweet, but I do know it was only a week ago that I read something about western Australia's labs still being heavily backed up and damaging explorers share prices through them having to set back resource estimates because of it. Not written directly in relation a company I am invested in but it might have been about a company called something like Pods or pod or something similar.

I guess like many things it can be hit and miss as to how well any specific lab. has coped with covid delays and the increased demand for their services.

The good news is that if I am wrong and we do get all our results as soon as Max implies then that is a positive... benefitting from being wrong is a natural bonus of adopting a more cautious approach.

@silverhorse - I'd love to have over a hundred grand on a speculative punt on a AIM listed junior explorer. Alas this "starving artist" (it's an obligatory part of the job description) is not so wealthy as to consider £100k a speculative punt, and not so brave as to have thrown a significant proportion of my wealth at such a company.

... and as I've told you before, I've yet to sell a single share in UFO since having first started buying in at around 0.1p.... Why would I when the long term potential could lift this to many multiples higher than it is now, and more importantly hold it there?

@Max111 - I describe a bubble as a a case where overly excited sentiment dominates and drives a price too high, too quickly and inevitably collapses back when reality doesn't come to fruition as quickly as hoped, which is what happened at 3p last October.

Would the things taking place last October ultimately lead to a situation where the SP could be more realistically valued at around 3p - Yes. Did it take several months to play out rather than days meaning that 3p last October was a bubble in a way that 3p nine months later may be a fairer valuation, making the current price look undervalued - Yes.

As for the other facts you quote, I have never disputed your ability to reliably relay information from the company, it is only the timescales you infer from them that I question, which is why I feel the information you defend your position with is equally applicable to defend mine.

As I have said, I am heavily invested here (at least in terms of my own modest wealth) as I share your hopes for UFO, but your opinions are a best case interpretation based upon the fastest things may happen. Whereas when the company themselves use words like "hope" or "possibly" when talking about potential delays and future timescales I will always take a more cautious interpretation of statements from the company that works upon a worst case scenario so as to avoid setting myself up for disappointment.

I do believe that the sirius extension could deliver an impressive MRE, and that may well be in excess of Fenix as you state. This may then justify our SP moving much higher. However the point I was making is that even if this is larger than Fenix it isn't likely to come anywhere near the 245m tons estimate for all our iron, and that this was nowhere near an MRE last October when the SP bubbled up to 3p.

Might things happen as soon as you imply? - It isn't an impossibility.

Might things take as long as I caution they could? - Again this isn't an impossibility.

I encourage folk to think for themselves and offer a balanced counter view for others to consider whenever I feel prevailing opinion seems to be straying too far from a probable mid-ground.

@livestock - whilst I agree the 3p SP was a "bubble" I would be more hesitant about calling it a "rare bubble".

AIM is driven by sentiment, over optimistic excitement and deep frustration. At the minute sentiment is against us because things aren't playing out as fast as others hope for, the next time sentiment swings in our favour we'll likely see another bubble.

Those with the skill to time things right may trade such swings profitably (statistics suggest most lose out trying this), otherwise we just take a long term view and ride out the ups and downs and let fundamentals dictate where we ultimately end up.

@Max111 - We both share a lot of optimism for UFO but we have differed in our expectations of how quickly things may play out, where I like to put forward more cautious counter views for others to consider.

I'm curious as to your use of the phrase "so close to getting a JORC". We are certainly closer to getting an MRE on a small part of our iron than we've ever been. However, we are still waiting on several new lab results needed to start preparing this, the first of which of which may be due in the coming weeks. BBG's earliest estimations of when we may get the last of this lab data is August and that wasn't allowing for delays which he said may extend things. Plus on top of that BBG implied that they would only start preparing this MRE when they had the last of the lab data, not be concluding the MRE with it.

I know no more than anybody else here about exactly when we will get to read this MRE but it seems wise to me to take a more liberal view of your phrase "so close" as to simply mean in the coming months. Plus we need to remember that the vast majority of our iron ore is far from being drilled to generate an MRE, so whilst our upper estimates may mention about 245m tons of ore, this first MRE will likely be a tiny fraction of that if it only covers a small part of the smaller of of our iron projects.

We do keep moving in the right direction but exploration is a long slow process likely to frustrate those looking for immediate gains.

@Pheobus - Brad did say the timing of the RNS was bit of a last minute muddle due to various public holidays around the globe meaning he couldn't release the news as early as he had planned/expected to be able to, and that he had to rush the drill results out before yesterday's presentation.

@pheobus - This is AIM where it is always wise to expect further placements from junior mineral explorers, that said for the time being we seem as financially secure as any an explorer.

So whilst there will always be those surprised and disappointed by any placements, were OMI to opportunistically raise more funds now through placement it would be a very hard sell to the punters and a real blow to sentiment and trust.... Ask anybody in ECR what happens to a CEO's reputation when they carry out a seemingly "unnecessary" placement.... Though hindsight can show such moves to be wise in the long run.

Given my near life long interest/background with tin working it seemed inevitable I'd end up invested in a tin project at some point - never expected it to be OMI.

We'll see if this comes to fruition after they have done all the due diligence.

there we go just spontaneously opened up a new window so just a matter of waiting 'til closer 'til 6pm

Cheers waynej, I'd already tried that but same same again, effectively a blank entry page to zoom, various personal family contact links within my zoom account, but not a n LSE webinar.

not sure if there's a problem or not, I've registered been sent an e-mail link, and when I click that it opens up zoom but doesn't seem to want to take me in to any meeting or webinar.

Are others already in some sort of waiting room when logged in to this webinar or just idling on the zoom entry page looking at a message saying they've no meetings scheduled?

@picku - credit the idiots with some ambition, when the SP eventually reaches 3p they'll be calling for at least 20p to get noticed above all us LTH's then looking for 5p to 8p as the next station on the horizon.

Who knows how far and how quickly fickle sentiment may next move the SP, past history suggests UFO is quite capable of making extreme moves up and down.

@Picku - the bit you dreamt was where the SP of an AIM listed explorer should reflect the underlying fundamentals....

Such views are very unfashionable these days, the latest trend all the young kids are chasing is for ethereal digital things with no use that are nevertheless hugely popular because the next person will surely pay more to acquire them than the last .