Member Info for Happyhaddock

@Scipio - much as I share the sentiment that many have unrealistic expectations about the junior mining sector, you mention GGP being a once in a life time find (clearly it is something special) and then say a comparison with GWMO is laughable as we are drilling on already drilled ground...

GGP's Havieron was found by drilling deeper under "already drilled ground".

A skilled and inspired geologist may still find something where others have looked, after all there's an old quote in this industry that "the best place to find a new gold mine is adjacent to an old one."

Who knows if GWMO will make it big, or even at all... I've done my research, taken a small position and I'm willing to give them the chance, but I am under no illusions that anything is certain and even if things do come good it may takes years rather than weeks or months.

All junior explorers come with a high risk/reward ratio... the huge number of unknowns they deal with mean major institutional investors steer clear until things are much more proved-up leaving us juniors the playthings for the fickle sentiment of private investors, all of whom are chasing dreams. It's just that we vary in how honest with ourselves we are about the likelihood of catching that dream.

Of course we all want every share we own to be "the next big thing" but life doesn't work that way... clearly today's results have disappointed many, partly that will be the results themselves, partly that will be to do with unrealistic expectations.

Companies aren't made on a single drill result but over years of drilling... so long as there is enough in the last drill results to justify drilling the next holes then things keep moving forward, not necessarily at the pace others want, not necessarily with the huge up lifts in share price folk want... but things keep plodding forward.

The last 12months saw a lot of excitement in the sector, which drew in a lot of new investors... many of those are now learning the slow day to day realties of investing in junior explorers and that as a whole the sector loses a lot of money each year.

Might GWMO be "the next big thing" ... well up until the point the drills stop turning any junior "could be" ... but most won't make it... that's why this sector is such a risky speculative area to play in.

Well we'd pretty much figured out we had ordered/bought the 2nd rig by the time this RNS came though, but great to hear formally announced nevertheless.

If it said that actions speak louder than words then our BOD's commitment to drilling shouts volumes about their own belief in the ground we hold.

We are still a very speculative punt but with each RNS I think the balance of risk vs reward is is slowly shuffling in the direction of reward and away from risk.

@ Dip666 - yep a few Aus based explorers all reporting similar stories that whilst lab delays are improving and several are down to less than 2month delays, the implication is therefore that some results must still be being delayed by more than 2 months. As for GGP I didn't get in there quite that early and by the time I found it it had past the threshold of being the sort of speculative punt with massive multi-bag potential I was looking for; I did however take a small position as a more serious investment as whilst GGP didn't offer the potential reward I wanted it also offered far less risk and to date has offered me more than an adequate working profit.

Plenty here with UFO to be positive about (even if my dour manner may suggest otherwise?) we just have be patient and let things play out in their own time rather than working ourselves into an excitable frenzy which can only lead to disappointment.

Much as the behaviour of others fascinates me, I am amused by the effort that goes into trying to analyse and rationalise the smallest of moves in the share price on an hour by hour basis along with arguments about what are buys or sells, when ultimately every trade has to have a buyer and a seller.

If the price had gone up or down by more than 30% then it might be wise to look for an underlying explanation of something unusual having happened. Most days normal trading volatility causes the share price to fluctuate by a few percent, so might it not be sensible to assume that todays move of about 5% is more or less what happens most days, that is a few folks sell and a few folk buy and that overall today will probably end up being little different to any other day in UFO's recent history.

We are all here because our research leads us to believe that at some point in the not too distant future our share price may have moved up by several pence... is a move down of 0.05p today really all that significant?

@ Max111 - as I've said before we both share the same optimism for UFO, the only difference is the speed at which we believe things will happen.

As we both know our first JORC resource is already on the to do list, its completion (or even the ability to start this) being held back by the various and on-going delays in getting results from the labs.

We'll have to wait and see if any future plan for extraction comes along with that first JORC or if we have to wait longer to find out how they plan to monetize this iron ore.... something I expect to be a more significant mover of the share price than the JORC on its own.

Whenever that happens I'll still be holding my shares.

@Max111 - whether it is fair or not to compare UFO to any other junior isn't the point. The point is that markets don't care what we hope, know or understand, they move based upon how others act, and sentiment is rarely rational.

The markets view us as just one of many junior explorers and compare our assets with other juniors of similar mkt cap. If they didn't we would be worth a lot more already.

At some point UFO will do something to grab the attention of the market and highlight that our DSO is both plentiful and faster to extract than some other commodities. However until we have a formal JORC resource defined for even a tiny proportion of our iron and formal plan and finances to show how quickly we can get this to market we are "behind" the other juniors in the eyes of the market. Those, like you and I who can see this are happy to hold this investment and wait for that day to come.

Sentiment is fickle and can swing quickly but we haven't yet done what's needed to move the pendulum.

@paulQ - "Quite frankly its at bargain basement prices below 2p and at this price its straight ridiculous in my books."

All valuations are subjective, I agree with your sentiment that UFO has the potential going forward to be a serious multi-bagger, (myself I'm already in multi-bag territory with UFO) which is why I'm invested here. However as to whether it is undervalued now or simply lower than we would like to see it....

We are very early stage in all our projects, if you look at other junior explorers with a similar mkt cap to UFO we can find examples with confirmed JORC resources of $2bn of gold , or $1bn of copper, $1bn of Nickle etc. etc. the point is that these other explorers are ahead of us in terms of having done enough drilling to formally establish their own resources but are still a long way from actually having plans and finances in place to get them out of the ground. Hence the mkt caps in the low tens of millions and the frustrated share holders all claiming their particular company should be valued much higher.

A company's shares are only worth what others are willing to pay for them. To be worth more than many of the other junior explorers we have to offer more, the long term potential to do so is there but it will take time to prove this potential.

I wouldn't worry about share consolidation, yes we have a lot of shares in existence, and it might be something UFO think about in the future, but if they reduce the number of shares it doesn't change the mkt cap of the company or the value of any individual's holding.

BB - In my experience a broker's valuation and market price don't have to align and often don't.

Many here seem to be placing great emphasis on if/when Turner pope issue a new higher estimated market value for UFO. My expectation is that different investors will use their own methods, (or just gut feelings) to value a company and a broker's valuation may simply be one of many pieces of information fed in to that process. We'll probably see some sort of rise on good news leading up to such a statement and further rises afterwards, all interspersed with much day to day volatility with people selling to take profits where they can. Possibly to the extent that the announcement of a new valuation gets lost in the general noise or becomes a focal point for folk to "sell the news".

Over the longer period an improve broker valuation should be a good thing but the primary drivers of share prices for junior explorers are issuing a maiden or expanded formal JORC defined resource combined with expectations of when that resource is actually going to be sold, either as a mined commodity generating monthly profits, or sold out en-mass to a major to mine. Until actually in production a resource tends to be valued in ground at tiny fractions of the metal value and everything else is just guidance on where any individual may or may not chose to set that percentage discount. Many juniors hold defined resources that take them years to move forward, but I know we are all hoping UFO can do something with our iron quickly.

Folk here will know me to be cautious and not easily carried away by other people's enthusiasm. As such I'm not placing too much emphasis on any new "minimum" or "maximum" valuation TP may come up with as I see no reason for the share price to actually settle at whatever price they come up with (after all we are well below our current "minimum" valuation now so clearly the market doesn't view such things as physical limits) . Whilst short term sentiment around news flow can have a big impact on share price I'm merely hopeful that improved fundamentals going forward will encourage a few more buyers to stick around such that we don't sell back down to where we started after any new valuation becomes old news.

@smiller - we can live in hope that when institutional money moves back in to the big boys of the sector, us tiddlers catch a few crumbs from the table, or that the big boys themselves look to start spending their vast profits by purchasing us tiddlers such that we don't need to worry about private investor sentiment.

I suppose the one big plus about private investor sentiment being so fickle is that whilst it may be really against you when you are not in favour, the opposite can be equally true if there is some major catalyst to turn sentiment around.

I do think our first JORC resource on the Sirius extension will take longer to arrive than many here predict, but I am hopeful of it delivering a short term boost in sentiment and share price, even if such a thing is merely one more step along the path to riches rather than a destination in its own right.

Well, a while ago I took a very small punt here because I liked the look of the projects. I didn't take a larger punt on account of the fact the management all seemed to have excellent track records from a few decades ago at other companies, but had seemingly not done much to move any of TYM's projects forward in all their time running it.

To date the above assessment remains true and I remain glad that I only took a small punt, as in percentage terms I am significantly down here, but in cash terms only small change, and now worth so little as to not be worth selling the shares I do have.

In my mind a holding to forget about and look back in on in a few years time... who knows where it may be by then?

Undoubtedly mining and metals exploration as a sector, and UFO as a junior, have a great outlook for the future... however I do wonder if investor sentiment is going to be the biggest risk to the juniors and the extent to which sentiment will have "burnt out" before getting started.

Almost everywhere you look there is one expert or another pro-claiming the positives going forward and a growing sense of expectation and impatience among private investors in many junior explorers. When every little twitch up in a share price is hailed as the start of something huge but is actually followed by nothing more than a little shuffle back down that impatience and frustration is only going to grow. In this regard UFO is no different to a dozen or so other juniors I'm invested in.

Those that understand the timescales and don't mind waiting will probably do just fine but I can't help but feel that all the positivity is going to lead to a lot of upset folk bailing out too soon (and maybe at a loss) if it isn't quickly matched by reality. This in turn generates a reluctance to re-enter later on holding back share prices.

Things will come good in their own time but it will be a volatile ride whilst people's expectations and attention spans are not in line with the pace at which the industry moves.

I've said several times before about various junior explorers that you should always expect more placements. That whilst investor's knee jerk reactions on a placing are always to think it's bad and for the share price to drop, what matters is what is done with cash raised.

If it simply pays to redecorate the board room and pays for a Christmas party then bad news. If it is spent wisely and raises the mkt-cap of the company enough to offset the the dilution then great.

Exploration and drilling is expensive but it is good results from drilling that will ultimately lift our share price ... lets just wait and see how much is accomplished with the cash raised before judging if this placement was a good or bad decision.

"morale vacuum"

I like the clever play on words, or was it a typo?

I initially thought he was announcing a second drill rig but later seemed to pull back and hint he was referring to MIDAS which we've had a while.

Either way that aspect of the interview wasn't the most helpful communication as it has clearly created confusion.

@boyzer1969 - "makes me wonder just how abstract a life you lead :)."

- few would believe all the highlights if I told them, but lets just leave it at the fact some of my more "unusual" endeavours have given me my fifteen minutes of fame;- where perhaps one of the odder examples surprised me when my wife came home from work and told me her work colleagues had been reading about me on that day's MSN news headlines next to some article about the Kardasions or Kardasshians or whatever these "famous for being famous celebrities" are called- I'd not expected or been told by the PR agents that they were going to be promoting me over the work I'd done for their particular project (perhaps naively I'd assumed I would remain anonymous)...However, much as I can tell some entertaining tales at a party, a lot of what I do day to day is probably fairly mundane stuff that everybody has to do....

- as to minimalism, it's an idea that would probably never work with a hoarder like me.. it's just that the stuff I hoard tends to be "raw materials" that other's consider rubbish but from which I am able to make all sorts.... perhaps my only decadence is reference books; my parents had a habit of buying reference books on any subject they didn't know about and it kinda stuck with me, plus my wife is an even worse bibliophile than myself.

Anyway whilst having an ego (even a modest one) and desire to talk about yourself goes with being creative, most are here to discuss UFO, so I'll try not to hijack this board any longer as there are certainly some here that are far more knowledgeable about that subject than myself.

Just for the sake of putting forward a counter argument to offer a more rounded perspective: Many talk about how sentiment is now "against" the whole mining sector. The other way to look at it is to say that the second half of last year running in to early 2021 created freak circumstances with global macro-economics combining with the pandemic to create a mania for junior miners. Something which they all played upon and exploited by raising as much easy cash as they could whilst share prices were at extreme levels so as to buy themselves a little financial breathing room for the next year or two. Something ECR certainly did.

Ask yourself to what extent is the current situation a return to the more usual "normal" and if the last six months was an abnormal high we are all still coming down from? I suspect those who have been invested in the sector for the last 5-10 years may find this easier to do than those only here for the last 5-10months.

Nothing to say things won't get crazy again with global macro economics, and nothing to say fundamentals won't lift individual companies to new highs over time, but we must all decide for ourselves what constitutes a sensible base line upon which to judge relative price moves going forward.

Many thanks for the kind words... I do what works for me but would not suggest my investment strategy or lifestyle would suit everybody.

I suppose many would suggest the only reason to invest is to make money, but I've only ever done anything in life in order to improve my knowledge, understanding or skill base as that is where I perceive my wealth.... In most cases when I've wanted to do anything interesting I've always found there's plenty of money out there with other institutions and organisations willing to fund my interests.

Never so vain as to publish a book about my own life (I'm happy for journalists to interview me and cover anything they want say about my work) but I am a published author, and have done copywriting for various mainstream magazines you can buy on the high-street as well as having had papers in print in more specialist journals.