Member Info for Happyhaddock

@wolfy - if you haven't got any reason to believe things will change then this probably isn't the investment for you. Plenty here do have reason to believe it will change. Some more quickly than I do but each to their own as the saying goes.

Exploration involves a lot of uncertainty and even the most successful explorers go through big dips in price, perhaps the most unrealistic expectation is that UFO will somehow be magically different and only go up in a straight line.

When an explorer is really down on sentiment, the right bit of news can really move it massively up again. If you don't believe that then talk to any of us with money invested in OMI today.

I've not risked more than I can afford to lose on UFO and so far despite an erratic ride it is still showing me great profits on my initial investment. With the price where it is now I'd suggest it is a far better punt for new investors than where the price was last October, though being an AIM listed explorer there are no certainties and this is not for the risk averse.

Can we assume that this, like so many threads, before it will soon be confined to the dustbin by the moderators?

If folk here focused more of their attention on their own investments rather than attacking and antagonising other investors (or non-investors as the case may be) everyone would be better off - if not financially then certainly in terms of spirit....

Nobody benefits from name calling and hurling insults and expletives about.

rather than shorts, consider an illiquid stock with few shares in existence and many already with institutional investors.

As others have said very early stage drilling is about defining where to look and where not to look in the future, once we've defined an approx boundary to look within and start targeting spots to measure highest grades I'd expect different results.

We're still much closer to the start line than the finish line but I'm not unhappy with the progress we are making, all the more so as we are advancing more than one area simultaneously.

@napth - 200% tomorrow seems way to rich for my thinking so I'll wager a dose of humble pie that even if tomorrow is great for OMI it won't be that great.... however it is wager I'd not grumble about losing but mid 30p's seems a safer bet....

Heck if OMI did 200% tomorrow it would knock our beloved UFO off the top spot in my own portfolio in terms of overall value, overall percentage profit and in terms of actual cash gain.

well those that know me, may know me for my prudent or cautious approach, where at times like this I'd usually warn that anything that goes up so quickly is bound to retrace somewhat.

However given how undervalued this has been for some time, and the huge swell of sentiment on todays news, I am inclined to think this may have a bit further to run before it runs out of steam and starts dipping back, so I'll just watch with interest and take satisfaction in having topped up rather than sold out during the long lull of recent months.... If it does break recent highs of 40p in the next day or so I'll be surprised but I'll keep holding regardless.

@Chris2 - you ask what I'll do next time UFO reaches 3p --- the same I did last time , look at it's long term potential and if I see a good chance of it being valued at more than 3p in the future I'll continue to hold. At the point I no longer see the odds being in my favour of UFO being worth more in the future then I'll sell.

Everybody has their own goals, if you are happy and successful trading UFO as it moves up and down then good luck to you. I've made an investment in something which is likely to need at least 5years to show it's true potential, and so I'm happy to wait at least that long to see how well I've done through that investment. There are no certainties and this is not without potential risk, but nor is it without significant potential reward.

As for all the short term ramping or deramping , I listen only in so much as I am interested in the psychology of other investors as I do recognise that this bulletin board isn't always a source of rational discussion.

My judgements are my own and I take responsibility for them whether they make or lose me money.... so far with UFO they've done me well.

@Chris2 - I'll respect the fact you are keeping the tone of your posts relatively polite even though many may not like what you say.

I cannot speak for others, though many may share my sentiment. It is true that had we all sold at 3p and bought back at 0.8p we could have massively increased our holdings... hindsight is wonderful thing that way... However statistics show about three quarters of private investors lose money by buying/selling at the wrong time as they cannot trade the market well. Much as I could tell that 2p was a bit frothy and 3p very much an irrational sentiment driven move, sentiment could easily have taken it to 4p or 5p before a crash down to just 2p. I didn't sell, because I know my timing stinks, and that in the grand scheme of things I am looking much further down the road at the long term potential where I hope 3p will be in the rear view mirror.

Good luck to those short term traders who think they can beat the statistics and be one of the few who makes profits from buying and selling spikes... I am not one of them , plus anything connected to silver can move incredibly fast and far when it goes, and I wouldn't want to be out at the wrong moment.

I'm currently sitting on hefty multi-bag profits with UFO and hope that a few years from now they will be much greater profits.

@napth --- I know you think I'm frustrated with UFO but I'm just a realist there, it has great potential and I'm happy to sit on my investment and wait for it to come to fruition, it's just the last six months were never going to see much happen with UFO and so I called it as a period of stagnation which is what eventually came to pass, the next six months I'm more optimistic about for UFO.

OMI I don't see as a speculative punt more of a safer investment over the long run, though we will inevitably have some ups and downs to deal with along the way.

@paulQ - more or less preaching to the converted here in terms of waiting 'til autumn to start to see the real economic impact of central bank interventions.

We know what sentiment can do to our SP, we'll just have to wait and see if we can generate the news flow quickly enough to sustain sentiment.

I don't know if there is an average grade/ton a mine has to hit across a certain number of holes for the whole site to classify as a bonanza mine but these are some very strong grades and lots of them, certainly a higher number of good grades and higher grades than many an explorer would promote as a good find.

here's hoping our SP responds accordingly?

Well it is always a mistake to assume the obvious about AIM but the oft' cited reason for MM's taking large amounts from sellers is that they have a large buyer wanting equally large amounts.

odd mismatch between the price of UFO being quoted in different places spanning 0.80p to 0.875p as mid price... seemingly we are down a little according to most, some a lot, but my own broker's suggesting the price hasn't dropped at all today.

@AquaeSulis01 - there's some truth to that, there will always be those who are unhappy regardless of the approach taken to communication.

In the long run the day to day comings and goings are pretty irrelevant, so long as we get the occasional note to reassure us that things are still happening on a day to day basis.

We've got the licenses, drills and cash ... time will tell exactly what is under the ground and where we don't seem to be wasting time.

Well just to strike a note of caution, we've had a big move up today without any supporting news or facts, presumably just on speculation about future news.

This is not uncommon on AIM, but it is equally common for prices to just drop back down to where they came from if news doesn't arrive promptly to support the rise.

I am a patient and hopeful LTH here, but I'm not going to get excited by a "random" move in SP... I'd rather RNS's drove our SP higher.

well things we can say for certain about a JV are

1) the more we prove up a resource in advance, the better the terms of any deal we should be able to make.

2)The sooner we agree a JV the less the risk of getting nothing at all if it turns out our potential resource isn't all we hoped for.

Clearly CB believes the gold is there to be found and that drilling will back up his belief, so whilst that's his thinking it is probably best to ignore any talk or short term expectations of a JV if he doesn't seem to want one just yet.

It seem unlikely that we can see things through to being productive mine without a partner, but either way we are talking years before any of our (potential) gold is likely to be going to market.

Lets just focus on drill results if that's where CB's attention is now focused.

well... exploration is about future unknowns and rational analysis of possible risk vs probable return..

I think this was yet another interview that gave us nothing new to go on other than the fact they are getting on with drilling, though that in its self, although not news, is still good to hear.

It has been said there are lies, damn lies and statistics.

I'm a big fan of looking at how comparative valuations may give a different outlook to quoted prices measured in fiat currency.

One of the statistics I like to look at is average wages in comparison to prices of silver. For much of the last few thousand years one day's labour has costs about 3g of silver regardless of era or nation, only recently has this changed radically in modern developed nations.

How you calculates an "average" wage has a huge impact upon the conclusions you can draw from the above.

The median of of all nations median wages is roughly $4/day . For roughly 3g of silver to cost approx $4 leads to a "fair" silver price of roughly $40/oz

The mean of all nations median wages is roughly $16/day. For roughly 3g of silver to cost approx $16 leads to a "fair" silver price of roughly $160/oz

The mean of all nations mean wages equates to about $55/day. For roughly 3g of silver to cost approx $55 leads to a "fair" silver price of roughly $550/oz

If you start basing prices of wages only around somewhere like the USA whose currency we price silver in then average wages get much much higher again...

Such figures say much about the obscene inequalities in income and how a wealthy global elite in a few wealthy nations can massively skew global statistics. Whether they are meaningful in terms of valuing silver is another question but may be of interest in terms of some of the very high predictions some other analysts have been putting out about future silver prices.

Obviously we all have our own goals, targets and risk tolerance, so there is no universal right or wrong time to buy or sell.

However my perspective is that the anchor holding us down is simply lack of sentiment for the sector, nothing specific to UFO which has many irons in many fires. The best value to be found is always in something which is out of fashion, so had I a lot more spare cash I'd be buying at these prices. As it is I was already overweight on UFO and my timing tends to stink consequently I 'd already done my "topping up" around 1.3p, so technically while my overall average remains below the current price, I am down on those recent purchases .

It's hard to buy and/or hold something out of favour that is losing value, but when you look back the biggest gains always come from shares purchases out of other peoples trash heap. (sadly the biggest losses also come from the same source but I do have faith in UFO for the long haul.)

Well I was going to type that perhaps pigs can fly and we have finally released a positive RNS, then the pig crashed due to a faulty bearing.... nevertheless we were airborne for a brief moment.

Our new CEO doesn't strike me as the type to accept inefficiency, so I dare say a few "choice" words were shared about what he has had to come in and deal with... but he seems more than capable of turning this into a profitable and operational mine given a little more time.