Petro Matad CEO Mike Buck confirmed that he believes the Exploitation Licence for Block XX in Eastern Mongolia is likely to be awarded in Q2. Watch the full video here.
"I think theirs is a trade finance sector not IM, it may well morph in to whatever in time and adds more strings to Syme.. again if it all goes through!"
Exactly, I see it as an expansion of their activities....just need a bit more time to complete the acquisition, create a new revenue stream, on top of the IM revenue stream..proof of concept to come in next full trading update, I expect beginning of July. So for me there is a high probability of getting the re-rate we've been waiting in the next 3-6mths ie.. over the summer. GL if you can add at these prices.
"i suspect the first update will be aquistion of tradeflow "
Agreed, most likely but I do not expect this to re-rate the SP much as this news is known about but of course we await full details of what they have bought and the financing terms (but I do not consider that to be a major problem given their funding partners and they could easily agree a vanilla type finance with fixed interest rate to be repaid from the revenues which SYME is already generating but will not be disclosed to the market until the interims are done)?
Glad that the interview was shorter than expected.
He confirmed the funding routes are moving forward positively and that we will (finally) get formal sales/earnings numbers when the interims (for the 6 months to 30 June) are released (I suspect some time in July). This will be a major catalyst for a re-rate in the SP and so this only re-affirms my prior belief that the re-rate will most likely happen in the summer. So a few months to go but all good here and we still have updates over coming months prior to that.
....both as bad as each other. One says this is going to fail even at current SP level following the massive drop and the other says we are going to make double figures in SP terms by year-end.
Neither person knows what they're talking about.
If anything Starchild does make sense with what he writes and I agree that from these levels, there is only direction given the current situation and several catalysts over next few months.
Not sure how high the SP could go from here or by when, but certainly at these levels (unless you have to sell or have a better risk/reward proposition) does not make sense. GLA!
So the RNS appears somewhat ‘underwhelming’ after all, as we continue to await the first securitisation news but at least the company will continue to communicate regularly which is essential for both traders and LTHs.
Full year 2020 accounts to be released in April and upcoming AGM.
However I am looking forward to the summer, as by then we will get a trading update for Q2 2021 (for the global monetisation via the Inventory Funder and for the dedicated Italian monetisation via Captive Bank and Quadrivio Group).
It would appear the Inventory Funder is calling the shots for the first securitisation (to be managed by SH) and this is connected to the potential business acquisition of TradeFlow “to further extend SYME’s geographical footprint”, as the Funder wants to monetise a “more global portfolio diversified by country”…so this global Funder might also play a role to help finance the acquisition itself?
Delays…yes but we know this business model will work and is scalable (based on continuing growth in origination numbers).
As for the clarification re origination numbers also including lost opportunities etc, this might be an immaterial %. We know there is big demand from quality SME’s - as evidenced by the “in-transit” business SYME is in the process of acquiring.
Added a few more (don’t like to be looking at a paper loss) but I am certain by the Summer the SP will be multiples of 0.4p-0.5p levels.
“Ready To Fly”….in the summertime? GLA!
"So realistically they should have enough cash until the end of this year. If they 'materially' increase revenue as stated then those hoping for a lower entry following a raise may be disappointed."
I am not so sure about that...any revenues generated in 2021 will continue to be second half weighted (as per Chairman's statement) and we know the majority of those will be recorded in trade receivables at end of 2021 and only received in the following year (2022).
Cash at end of 2020 was £2.3m plus cash received this year 2021 from trade receivables at end of last year (£1.2m) = £3.5m cash available. Cash used in operations amounts to approx £500k pm (and likely to increase as we expand) which means we only have enough for H1 2021 and so they will obviously be looking to fund the shortfall with another placing similar to the previous 2 years where they raised about £5.7m.
Also consider the director's statement "The Group is dependent on further equity fundraising in order to operate as a going concern for at least twelve months from the date of approval of the financial statements.."
So personally I am expecting a fund raise via placing and we have to see at what price (probably at around current levels of 4p-5p).
"I expect just the proof of concept to take the sp into the 1.5/2p + area straight away pretty much..."
I think you're getting ahead of yourself....you might be surprised that the SP does not reach that level come Trading Update next week. I'm invested here but can also be realistic with my SP targets and timelines (as too many posters get carried away just like the derampers).
Anyway next week we should break 0.75p resistance level.
"I hope the SP is not going to build before the RNS, then the update is all very smoke and mirrors without any real detail and figures."
Difficult to determine realistic SP immediately after Trading Update in the absence of knowing the exact details and any forward looking statements.
We should get the proof of concept but in terms of gross origination numbers monetised i.e. revenues generated to date, it might be 'under-whelming' given current MC of almost £200m.
Depending on how one values the MC - working backwards based on 2% fee and MC of say 10 x revenue, this equates to about £1b monetised to date which seems a lot at this stage given new asset class and cooperation required on multiple fronts due to the geographical spread and current takeover issues - so could take more time before mass monetisation of the origination numbers.
Exciting week coming up.
Have a great w/e!
.......what people are writing on this BB, so many on filter (incl Sharebel who is obviously disingenuous and painfully repetitive). Some LTHs can also be annoying with their silly SP predictions. Let’s get to 1p first (soon) and then we can talk multiples of this based on further catalysts happening within specific time horizons to keep matters real.
As for the acquisition of Tradeflow, this is an expansion of SYME activities i.e. the „inventory monetisation“ activities re goods held (without taking over the ownership) are not the same as what Tradeflow are doing which is to take over the ownerhsip of goods in the commodities sector during the „in-transit“ part of the supply chain based on completely different finance terms and conditions.
No point in speculating how they will fianance the deal, as so many options available and not all of them have to be dilutive but even issuing of new shares for the expansion would be worth it given the massive growth prospects this year alone.
Based on last trading update (30.11.20), gross origination numbers (in EUR) from March to Nov 2020 grew at a compound rate of 20% per quarter which is indicative of incredible growth prospects for the following 12 months.
We will see in the next trading update how many onboarded and the earnings being generated.
Hope all genuine traders/investors have a great week-end!
Taken form Tradeflow's website 'about them':
"We believe that scalability of trade finance strategies has been the biggest challenge for the hedge fund industry. As a result we focused on digitising our whole business and transaction process in order to have the potential to be scalable in to a billion dollar fund handling small SME transactions."
This acquisition will turn out to be a match made in heaven aimed at funding the global SME sector.
AZ doing what he said he would.
It is one think to research a start-up but quite another when you finally see the pieces coming together as one poster mentioned.
Great and unexpected RNS, no-one saw this coming..the scalability of their Fintech platform is mind blowing. I have my own SP predictions for this year but in terms of a major re-rate, I think this could really take off in the summer.
"So I'd expect this to be 1.5 to 3p by end 2021 as a REALISTIC goal"
Finally someone wrote a sensible and realistic SP prediction for 2021. It's not too difficult to arrive at the above based on released origination numbers. All the other predictions were utter nonsense.
There was no doubt in my mind that we would re-list (expected April the latest but glad it happened sooner). AZ is the real deal and the fact that SYME produced regular communications always put my mind at rest and the fact that they re-organised their shareholding structure (29.12.20 RNS - transferring shares to professional investor @0.48p which showed me we won't going lower) just before the temporary suspension announced.
Among other things, they're in advanced talks with funder and so am surprised that quite a few posters admitted to being influenced by what trolls were posting over last several weeks. (Filter button can do wonders for your peace of mind when visiting BB's to pass the time).
I can not find any material short interest in the stock and so don't know why posters bring this up as it's misleading. The majority of the stock is in safe hands and this year this company will have massive growth as the finance sector digitises which will be reflected in the SP over coming 12 months.
"EUA went up over 100% on first day back trading from 7p to 14p then went up to 45p over the next couple of months....."
If the genuine traders/investors have done their research, then realistically I can see SYME getting to 1p upon re-listing and then with regular updates, I can see this getting to 2.5p during the summer reaching a MCAP of over £800m...very realistically assuming they fulfil the IM numbers as indicated and perhaps even diversifying beyond pure inventory monetisation..so much to look forward to and very fortunate to already be in (in a big way).
"Next week great chance of a relist."
Every week it seems we get people saying 're-listing next week'. How will some cope if this continues for many more weeks yet.
I would not be surprised if we have to sit out the whole of March..I suspect we re-list in April because that's when they release accounts to 31.12.20. Let's see....
"And in the last update, alot of waffle, but no clarity .."
In all honesty, it' been like that for years..always seemed to be a good story to draw in PI's and every time the SP drops or remains stagnant. If only there was volatility, at least one could have traded the stock to make some money. Very sad state of affairs...
Last year, prior to massive rise in SP from 11.8.20, Shrewd_mole kept claiming AZ is a fraud and a liar.....as soon as the SP started rising he does a u-turn and posts "I have my eyes set on a white Ferrari Testarossa ??" and now he is back with the same.
Talk about being dishonest.
Poor old Shrewd_mole...should go back in his hole and awaken his conscience.
Good post SC and am aligned to your ideas...as for farm-in v farm-out, are they not one of the same, it just depends on whether it is viewed from the 'farmor' or 'farmee' side?
Only 75 posts as I type....imagine in March still no re-list, this could reduce to 25 posts (assuming no catalysts being released) ....pure bliss... until we finally re-list and then much to talk about (for the right reasons). Hang in there people.