Member Info for Hallowed

Hi Peak, are you able to post the link to TB’s comment?
Thanks.

Had to dial in to listened to parts....did anyone catch what was said about the Captive Bank? Thanks in advance.

“Expect a big rise tomorrow. “
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LOL…AGM’s are not catalysts for the SP…more likely fall in SP and with more shares issued, assuming say 55b, then to maintain current MCap of £32m, we will see 0.05p-0.06p!

“This is incremental progress, for sure, but hardly the gamechanger that it's being presented as, IMO”
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Agreed Ex…it is your opinion.

IMO it is the beginnings of a game changer with more IM type news to possibly follow post upcoming dilution. We will find out soon enough if this supposed long-term investor is or isn’t long term. If they’re of the same ilk as Negma and Mercator, then SP will obviously fall or stay depressed for much longer. However I feel we are starting to approach the period of revenue generation. Let’s see.

The enquiry ended with reservations not an investigation….the IM model and it’s pioneering non-credit approach is new. One has to trust SYME that they have covered this risk as their whole business model relies on it. Furthermore, as I recall, the external auditors have not qualified their report with regard to this uncertainty.

So the wait continues…

"In the press release provided by Hallowed, the last contributor, Andrea Casaretelli states this, “The due diligences were conducted by PWC regarding the financial and legal aspects ”.
Now wouldn’t that be a fantastic statement for AZ to make on behalf of SYME, rather than “One of the big four”. NDA’s my A*se."
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Or maybe he did reference specifically "one of the Big 4" but you missed it. SYME mentioned they are involved with one of them as part of the on-going progress re due diligence/onboarding activities:

"Research & development project with Deloitte to measure the inventory unsold risk for specific economic sectors completed." Source: 2021 Financial Statements.

Kinross sold the Russian assets to avoid reputational damage. At least AMC doesn’t have to worry about that and can just stay put until a better cash offer comes along (but wouldn’t hold my breath given their historical performance).

Link here:
https://www.quadriviogroup.com/en/media/press-releases/industry-4-0-fund-invests-soft-n-w

Ex is right that there is nothing to directly connecting SYME to Quadrivio other than AZ’s RNS disclosure. Normally the counter party also comments on the cooperation but there was no such disclosure.

However, looking at one of the three investments made by the Quadrivio 4.0 Fund in 2021, its interesting to note that one of the financing banks just happened to be Intesa San Paolo. So at least there are indirect connections.

Markets don't look backwards, they are forward looking and the SP says it all.

What are your near-term catalysts to cause a re-rate to the SP and what is your near-term SP target?

"Erm...have you read the FY reports lately, margins are up from 13% to 36% and revenues are up exponentially y/y from £140k 2019, to £1.7m 2020 (beat expectations) to £2.7m 2021...and expected £8.8m in 2022!"
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Hmm....and SP drops from above 3p to below 3p. I wonder why.

At the risk of repeating myself, perhaps because gross margins (whilst they've increased) are still not great and still no trading profit after tax and no (major) revenue growth for foreseeable future moving forward.

Do you still think you know something that the Market doesn't? GL though with whatever you decide here.

“Bidstack will be raising cash. Make no bones about it. The question is at what price. “

Most likely. How many shares and at what price is the big question.

“Hello....its 2022 guys, you know...$30m two year deals and all that good stuff...wakey wakey!”
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So what? Yes, they’ve secured fixed revenues for two years but gross margins are low and can’t make a net profit on that + no proven revenue growth (as their Market not mature enough and hence why they need to find new revenue streams. Depending on how they manage their cash, more placings are certainly not out of the question.

Bids has proven to be your typical punt than LT investment (as are most shares on AIM).

"I think the £50m for 2022 is quite conservative"
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I think not. Based on contracts reported this year and looking at the when the revenues get recognised, according to my calculations we have about £17-£20m at best to be recognised FY 22 thus far and so we are on target to meet the projected £50m.

Apologies if I came across as patronising, not my intention….only to clarify.

PIs too often end up buying in at the wrong stage and many end up as LTH’s holding at a loss (been there too often myself)

It’s all about having a systematic approach to trading. I learned the hard way.

"if you believe in the fundamentals ie: unique niche in a growing market, and decision makers with big skin in the game."
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'Fundamentals' are not a growing market (that's more of a theme)...'fundamentals' involve assessing a company's quants to assess future prospects, compare to competitors etc. As for skin in the game, that is not a reason to invest on its own. CF's average SP is far less that PI's and SP doesn't re-rate on old news.

The Market has take the SP from 40p+ to the current 13p levels. You need to ask yourself why (and I have already outlined some reasons).

PI so often think they know more than the Market. Big mistake.

You are looking at past growth rates whereas the Market looks at the rates of change....75% in 2021 which dropped dramatically to 28% expected for current year (FY revenue guidance £50m) and then FY 23 may rise to around £55m (10% growth) and so the revenue in its core business has stabilised and finding it difficult to get significant growth (hence they are looking for new revenue streams).

Furthermore, they only completed the one spin-off contrary to what was being communicated to the market and so the full value of the remaining spin offs is locked up and so the Market is now valuing ORPH at a revenue multiple of less than 2 which is quote low but justified by the points mentioned.

CF left to focus on Poolbeg which tells me that the really big spin-offs may not happen but instead a larger company may be interested to take over ORPH for a premium (and indeed the new non-exec has M&A experience). I could be wrong but that's my take on the situation.

The stock is currently range bound and apart from T/O, I can't see any other near term catalysts.

Rate of growth has fallen dramatically.

My post was addressed to Citizenlane..

I am learning to have a different approach and trade/invest short-term (or whatever the numbers suggest) and this is one stock I made money on back in 2020 where the R/R was unusually favourable for an AIM stock (it was not your typical high risk binary play).

I am also happy to impart knowledge that I have acquired along the way and mistakes made in the past. After all we are all here to help each other (or at least those of us who are genuine) and that does not mean we have to always ramp a stock if we feel the upside is limited due to a change in the company's dynamics.