Member Info for haggismchaggis1

"Harnessing the power of long-term investing"

https://www.nutmeg.com/nutmegonomics/increasing-your-chances-of-positive-portfolio-returns-the-facts-about-long-term-investing/

"Harnessing the power of long-term investing"

https://www.nutmeg.com/nutmegonomics/increasing-your-chances-of-positive-portfolio-returns-the-facts-about-long-term-investing/

Over 3000 followers and so far that post has had over 2000 views. Good going I'd say.

BG,

I am hoping that with the 3D Seismic over the CH-1a area they will pick a target with a really long target interval, so that the well is a huge producer.

See this image for my location choices https://ibb.co/48scjWM

My CH-1a gives about 4.5x the NT-2 target sands thickness. This is where NT-2 should have been drilled, but it's too late for that now, just drill CH-1a there instead, into the same proven gas trap that NT-1 and NT-2 have already proven, but in the thickest section of it.

My CH-1b location tests Lobes 4 and 2 but also gets a good slice of the proven Lobe 3 of about 1.5x the thickness of sands that NT-2 hit, so pretty much a guaranteed producer, but with the big upside potential of the thickest part of Lobe 4 plus a worthwhile thickness of Lobe 2.

BG,

As you know, after NT-1 I was shouting for 3D, as the 2D was way out on the depth of the target, or they missed the target and were just lucky to hit a deeper target.

"The well was spudded on the 22 December 2011 and is now at a depth of 2500 metres. The targeted sandstone intervals were not encountered at the prognosed depths between 1,800 and 1,900 metres. Further drilling found sandstone intervals along with traces of gas below 2,300 metres. Wireline logs and check shot data will now be recorded to determine whether or not to drill further."
https://www.investegate.co.uk/aminex-plc/rns/ntorya-1-drilling-update/201202070700379262W/

"On the 10 February 2012 it was announced that the well would be deepened to test an additional target identified on the seismic data at a depth of approximately 2,750 metres. The well has now been drilled to 2,750 metres, and prior to reaching that depth encountered strong gas shows in a good quality reservoir sand at a depth of approximately 2,660 metres. A logging programme will commence shortly to evaluate the new section drilled below 2,500 metres and a further update will be provided after the logging programme has been completed."
https://www.investegate.co.uk/aminex-plc/rns/ntorya-1-drilling-update/201202150700334319X/

But instead of 3D AEX just did 2D infill around NT-1 in 2014. I put this down to them not wanting to raise the cash it would have cost for 3D, they didn't want the dilution so tried to battle on with just 2D.

"Completed US$15 million equity issue to move the work programme forward in Ruvuma and progress the Company to production at Kiliwani North"
"Infill seismic acquisition in progress to appraise up-dip portion of the Ntorya-1 discovery"

But if you look at slide 11 of the 2022 AGM presentation you have to say that NT-2 location was still poorly selected, as the further up-dip you go the thicker the pay zone, and at the best location it's about 5x thicker than at NT-2, so could have been a HUGE producer. 3D Seismic could easily have made them pick the better location, and we may never have had to farm out, or farm down to 25%.

I'm so glad ARA went straight to 3D before going ahead with drilling, as it's something AEX should have done after NT-1 showed the 2D wasn't the right choice for Ruvuma geology.

http://admin.aminex-plc.com/uploadfiles/2022%20AGM%20Presentation.pdf

gr1bbler,

Sounds like someone has a huge chip on their shoulder, no idea who as I have them on filter, probably for that very reason.

About time they looked in the mirror if they are still at it even though I've filtered them and thus will obviously not read or respond to whatever it is they are posting.

If anyone else is bored with them trolling me, just filter them, easy.

We can finally see the MSC Leandra on the Satellite imagery from today's scan.

Long URL, copy and paste the entire URL:
https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/sentinel-playground/?source=S2&lat=39.5065584566782&lng=121.4025256678724&zoom=16&preset=1-NATURAL-COLOR&layers=B01,B02,B03&maxcc=100&gain=1.0&gamma=0.8&time=2022-10-01%7C2023-04-16&atmFilter=&showDates=false

Shortened URL to click on
https://shorturl.at/mH125

Click on the Effects button if on a phone as it will reveal more of the image.

Buy signal on Britishbulls after the close last Friday. Could make for an interesting day tomorrow.

Signal Update:
Our system’s recommendation today is to BUY.

The pattern finally received a confirmation because the prices crossed above the confirmation level which was at 4.83, and our valid average buying price stands now at 5.00.

The previous SHORT signal was issued on 11/04/2023, 3 days ago, when the stock price was 4.80. Since then BHL.L has risen by +4.17%.

Market Outlook:
The bulls have strong evidence on their side and this evidence prompts us to make a bullish bet.

The bullish pattern that was previously identified is finally confirmed and a BUY signal is generated. It is probably the right time to be part of this boost and bullish market sentiment. The market is telling you about a new profit. Do not miss this chance.

https://www.britishbulls.com/m/SignalPage.aspx?lang=en&Ticker=BHL.L

Buy signal on Britishbulls after the close last Friday. Could make for an interesting day tomorrow.

Signal Update:
Our system’s recommendation today is to BUY.

The pattern finally received a confirmation because the prices crossed above the confirmation level which was at 29.20, and our valid average buying price stands now at 29.47.

The previous SELL signal was issued on 04/04/2023, 10 days ago, when the stock price was 29.80. Since then ALL.L has fallen by -1.11%.

Market Outlook:
Let’s jump on our white horses and go for a bullish ride. The bullish pattern that was previously identified is finally confirmed and a BUY signal is generated.

The market is telling you about a new profit. Do not miss this bullish opportunity.

https://www.britishbulls.com/m/SignalPage.aspx?lang=en&Ticker=ALL.L

9billion,

They might even need to wait to after the ML, as the mine can't go ahead without that too. It's possible that they could get inside info from the Government that the ML is about to be signed off at a ceremony, tipping them off to make their investment ahead of it or even at the same ceremony so that the news has even more impact.

Buy signal on Britishbulls after the close last Friday. (Might make for an interesting day tomorrow).

Signal Update
Our system’s recommendation today is to BUY.

The pattern finally received a confirmation because the prices crossed above the confirmation level which was at 19.90, and our valid average buying price stands now at 20.05.

The previous SHORT signal was issued on 03/04/2023, 11 days ago, when the stock price was 21.05. Since then AFC.L has fallen by -4.75%.

Market Outlook
The bulls have strong evidence on their side and this evidence prompts us to make a bullish bet.

The bullish pattern that was previously identified is finally confirmed and a BUY signal is generated.

It is probably the right time to be part of this boost and bullish market sentiment. The market is telling you about a possible new profit. Do not miss this chance.

https://www.britishbulls.com/m/SignalPage.aspx?lang=en&Ticker=AFC.L

Tanz,

Certainly the wealth of data has a very good chance of decisions changing, more so when you add that the wealth of data gives us a 3D image of the targets instead of a 2D slice through the target.

"One of the most obvious differences between 2D and 3D seismic is that 3D imaging provides information continuously through the subsurface whereas 2D seismic reveals only strips of information."

"3D operations are considerably more elaborate than 2D and the daily cost of the crew is substantially increased."

"However, 3D seismic data collection improves exploration performance by allowing for:
fewer dry holes
more optimized well locations
guidance for horizontal drilling projects
more complete evaluation of mineral rights
and a better understanding of the nature of the prospects."

https://ektinteractive.com/exploration/oil-gas-exploration-types-seismic/

"more optimized well locations"
"better understanding of the nature of the prospects"

So possibly move CH-1a a bit, and update the market on the TCF target sizes at that location.

9billion,

Thanks and good theories.

I wonder if MIIF need the DFS before they can invest, as the risk level is currently only based on a PFS and would drop substantially on DFS.

Have a read of the below article. Scroll down to "Usually, four stages of proof are undertaken which represent the general levels of certainty reached:" and read from there.

https://finfeed.com/investor-101/a-retail-investors-guide-to-all-things-pre-feasibility-study/

As it's only the DFS that determines if the mine goes ahead, I can't see why MIIF would invest prior to that, the risk level is likely too high until the mine go ahead is confirmed in the DFS.

I don't think there needs to be a BFS as Piedmont have already given the financial backing to build the mine.

(iii) Project no. 3162:

"Distribution of Natural Gas to the Regions of Dar es Salaam, Mtwara, Lindi and Pwani
The activities to be implemented are: starting the construction of the natural gas distribution pipeline project from Mwenge to Mbezi Beach; start the construction of the natural gas distribution pipeline project from the main pipeline (BVS3) to Mnazi Mmoja in Lindi region; enter into a contract with the contractor for the construction of CNG stations together and start construction; entering into a contract with the contractor for the construction of natural gas supply infrastructure to DUCE and Mlimani City"

"start the construction of a pipeline to transport natural gas from Ntorya to Madimba"

"start construction of natural gas supply infrastructure for DANGOTE, SAPPHIRE, ANRIC, WU ZHOU and NEELKANTH; and the start of the implementation of the project to supply natural gas to homes in the Coastal and Lindi regions."

"A total of 72.93 billion shillings of local funds have been allocated for the implementation of projects."

https://www.parliament.go.tz/uploads/documents/whatsons/en/1678707881-Mpango%20wa%20Maendeleo%20wa%20Taifa%20wa%20Mwaka%202023.24%20Tarehe%2013%20March.%202023%20(1)-2.pdf

Edgar,

Also due imminently is the pipeline contract announcement by the Government, following the order in Parliament in mid-March to get on with signing it.

I had a look at the current weather forecast for Madimba, and heavy rain stops around 21st of May.

APT and Government will be monitoring this to see the earliest they can start work, so it's worth keeping an eye on it.

https://www.metcheck.com/WEATHER/180days.asp?zipcode=Madimba&locationID=54117&lat=-10.4&lon=40.3

The very granular and much more accurate 3D Seismic is most likely going to change the estimates of the targets for CH-1a and therefore they would need to RNS the new size.

Interim Results
RNS Number : 5434U
Quadrise PLC
29 March 2023

"Despite the immediate and cost-effective carbon reductions that bioMSAR™ can offer we recognise that the requirement for net-zero carbon fuel solutions is becoming increasingly urgent. Our RDI strategy is now focused on the delivery of a commercially viable net-zero 'bioMSAR Zero' solution by 2030. As part of this exercise, we continue to work with Vertoro and other strategic partners to investigate the use of crude sugar oils (CSO™) and associated waste biofuel products as an alternative water-based, lower cost, and abundant biofuel feedstock for bioMSAR™."

"This work has now successfully progressed to diesel engine testing at Aquafuel, with results expected early in Q2 2023."

I'd describe "early in Q2" as lasting for maybe 2-3 weeks before being referred to as "mid Q2". So not long to wait, could even happen next week.

Gotta love prescriptive test, it's always bang gong!

Check out how BHL and ALL are almost joined at the hip, despite ALL being further down the road than BHL. The drop on ALL on the Piedmont shorters lies only brought ALL back in line with BHL. Now they both jumped up at the same time by fairly similar percentages (21.6% vs 25.2%.

https://ibb.co/hyC1d3d

9billion,

I don't think that article had anything to do with the rise, as other Lithium stocks were jumping too.

Check out the chart on the link below that compares ALL with BHL since their peak. Note they have very similar trading patterns, not the big ALL drop on the BO lies just brought ALL back in line with BHL. Now they both jumped up at the same time by fairly similar percentages (25.2% vs 21.6%. Yet BHL is not as far down the line as ALL. So it is all about Lithium or Lithium Stocks bullishness by the looks of it.

Chart:
https://ibb.co/hyC1d3d

Perhaps a chart repeat of the move that happened in September/October 2022 is on the cards soon.

It's all about the triangles and breakouts. It's actually more bullish this time, as in 2022 the price was trapped in a very bearish triangle (in red), this time it's all about the bullish short term triangle (in blue).

The green line I have put on the breakout that could occur soon, is the same length and angle as the one shown for the price jump in September/October 2022, so it is not an exaggeration as to what could possibly happen, just a copy and paste of that move.

https://ibb.co/h7MPbtT