Member Info for Guvvi

I think Humm IS the poison pill!

I agree but lets see. At least we can't say there isn't a lot of catalysts.

We've got any one of a number of things or a combination of things that could cause big upside here. The market is getting ready for Humm to go bust which i don't see personally. Hope i'm not wrong !

I agree with the director bit, if this is clearly so undervalued and they're close to the industry and buyers etc then i can't see why they arn't using every penny they can spare to buy here. I don't have an answer for this at all.

I've averaged down to just over 20p and spent a lot of money doing this. I think it's unlikely they go bust but its definately a possibility. Honestly it appears that the **** show operationally isn't there going forward now and we can be confident that on a daily basis expectations are reasonable and improving.

If this is not the case and h2 is not steady and better than h1/q1 then this business could be in big trouble.

Sorry i jumped on you a bit. x

I wasn't trying to stop you but if this board could post information about the business and we focused on that we would all be much better off.

I'm in the same boat as you so i know how it feels.

Yeah Bushy i'm sure we already had this and it doesn't surprise me. These projects take huge funding, i'm sure more is available and i'm fine with debt vs other forms of finance.

It hasn't suddenly dived, it's been slipping ever since i bought my first share at 37p.

A big buy just went through too - try not to worry about what's happening on a daily basis.

Can we not have this turn into another bashing thread, its an RNS and now a link to a discussion on something this board already knew about i believe.

Humm i think had already confirmed at the AGM that they have used some Kouroussa funding to support Yanfolila although they i believe also confirmed they had an additional overdraft they could use and cashflow from h2.

I don't think this is new news as such but i believe there is expected to be a shortfall yes. The directors seemed comfortable with with.

Maybe the chaps who went to the AGM can confirm?

https://www.pasofinogold.com/news/news-details/2022/Pasofino-Gold-Announces-Filing-of-Its-Feasibility-Study-and-Confirmation-of-Satisfaction-of-the-Option-Exercise-Conditions-to-Acquire-Its-Interest-in-the-Dugbe-Gold-Project/default.aspx

We are all here for the same reason as investors anyway it doesn't matter which of us thinks we are right today. I would imagine we are all wrong to an extent.

I can't help but think Humm at around 60m us dollars debt and market cap £36m sterling is a really interesting acquisition target for a larger miner given the reserves and projects coming online/available.

It wouldn't surprise me if someone by-passed Dugbe completely and just went to buy Humm.

And for the record I am not “ clearly right “ either. I’m just working on what I might expect nothing else at all. I have zero mining experience only been valuing shares or businesses for 5 years.

Let me drop the gf down the train station and I’ll see what I can find.

I’ll see if I can find it and I’ll post it here. In the meantime feel free to show me the opposite.

Also I’m not saying dugbe value is marginal, clearly Over the next 10 years that is not true at all.

I’m saying I don’t see someone offering huge money on day 1 to humm/Pasofino.

I’m neither crazy ramper nor deramper here just trying to actually work it out and think on my own. As I have said a million times I’ll be delighted if we see an rns in November saying it got sold for 200m.

I mean its already attractive to the largest Turkish miner about but i'm just not sure someone is going to walk in and drop £150m sterling for it split 3 ways. Let alone £200m.

Yes bonkers but thats at 5%.

The ones i found were not at 5% discount rate either but still sold but big discounts. You're talking about buying something that's rarely valuing your business at 10% profits ( how many gold miners are valued like this ) and has the potential for injury, legacy environmental issues plus so many more nasties.

Add in all the failed mines with great DFS' and you can see the issue in the real world.

It's all a bit academic anyway it doesn't change my personal hopes i still think Humm can be paying down big lumps of debt in a year while making this valuation look silly.

Even 10% is punchy if you ask me so i'd rather be too conservative. Would i take a project on paper at 10% return without having taken on any of the risks of a long term mine? no.

But i'm going to happy to be wrong if i'm being a bit too harsh on it.

If anyone can post examples of projects sold for the NPV or close to it from a DFS feel free to show evidence.

The only evidence i could find showed they sold at big discounted rates to the NPV numbers in a DFS - about a third. However in every case i found that the directors of the selling company so another way to have a look at the value unless you're a mining expert would be to look at what Ian Stalker has bought shares at in Pasofino. I'd say he knows the most here.

Or maybe the turkish buy in. They paid market cap of around £13.5m sterling for their last stake i think in pasofino. They paid 0.55 canadian dollars per share. Canadian dollar to Sterling is about x0.6.

I know this doesnt tell you the worth of it but it doesn't appear Ian Stalker had them over a barrel :)

Adam i completey agree and have said this multiple times.

I'd take the NPV and divide it by 3 then knock a bit off for safety. This was after i tried to find other projects that had been sold and compared them to the NPV in their respective DFS'.

So I'm working roughly on £30m/£35m.

Don't forget for comparison vs 2021 we are about 70m the wrong way on an EV basis. This will probably get worse before Q2 2023 assuming Yanfolila breaks even and Kouroussa is developed.

So we can't say the share price doesn't make sense because it sort of does.

As i've said before we must be very profitable this time next year or shortly after. And fingers crossed for good Dugbe news.

Also - i haven't done the math for a while... My average cost per share is 20.5p.

Well i hope so but i could also lose a lot. It isn't a game this company needs to be worth a lot more than it is today and it'll only do that if the management sort out the current operations, Kouroussa and do a good deal on Dugbe.

I will not make money here as an investor any other way.

If you're implying that the market makers are twisting the market up for some sort of arcane benefit to god knows who then i hope - like you - that you're right.

But i've never believed in such things, more likely that everyone is depressed at the moment on top of Humm having an awful track record recently.

But as i've said before i hope you're correct my 1.2m shares will be very happy too.

The VAT problem is over now although exactly what that means i'm not sure, they've just said they expect the payments to restart soon now the sanctions have been lifted.

100k shares is a 10k buy at these prices i wouldn't get too excited.

I've said before we might as well all wait for quarterly updates and Dugbe news now. The share price seems to indicate that Dugbe is not likely to yield us £50m, i suppose we are here because we are sure that is wrong. If production keeps increasing which they say it will then we might break even give or take for 2 more quarters. We all hope there is a 180,000 ounces a year operation at a decent blended AISC next year and that gold is up a bit from where we are today i guess.

If that happens then the current market cap is almost certainly a bit silly.

But it hasn't happened yet and the market doesn't believe it will clearly. As ever form your own views !