Member Info for Guvvi

I said the same to a friend this morning, they should have shut yanfolila 15 months ago.

I can't imagine the internal reports these guys must ignore telling them how bad they/the contractor are doing. They then seem to ignore the losses and just keep making very similar mistakes.

Bear in mind this is a large team of managers and workers who literally might as well have left it in the ground. And every week is the same. What do they say every friday at the end of a working week to each other?!?!?

My take on the volume is we now have a bunch of people saying they are willing to have a go at this at this price as its bust or multi bag.
But we also have a bunch of investors saying they don't want to be involved in something where if Coris hadn't lent we wouldn't make it to Kouroussa.

E-mail sent to them. Fingers crossed.

It can't be that hard to provide simple operational updates shortly after month end even if they point out they could be +/- 5% as far as numbers quoted go.

Firstly apologies to bonkers although anyone who tries to call share prices frequently i'll never understand. I don't like comments that arn't constructive and my reply was as bad.

I'm going to e-mail Humm and ask if we can have more regular updates now. Reason being they have got an additional 35m dollars now, 15m on familiar terms and 20m on unfamiliar terms we don't even know about yet because they need it, not because they want it.

More than a little worrying and being honest with myself if they hadn't got it you would think it's very possible they wouldn't survive. I've re-read the rns this morning and i think if this is where they are as a company they at least owe it to us to not make us wait until late January for another update.

Bonkers was saying he doesn't see more than 1 penny maybe coming off at 8p not long ago... At that point it was all being done to facilitate more behind the scenes shenanigans and now he calls 4p.

Both of us agree on the value here and both might be wrong or right. But pointlessly guessing at pennies up and down is madness mate.

I really think its pointless hoping this is the last of the bad news. I'm not saying it isn't but this company just have issue after issue with Yanfolila.

It's priced so cheaply now that unless it goes bust or somehow next year can't make money out of a mining profile more than double what it is now the future should see much greater value here.

Investing on the basis of q4 Yanfolila numbers is an awful idea. I've been waiting for Dugbe news and Kouroussa to get going and unless we somehow go bust first that's still my investment case. The only thing i didn't see coming was that we would get there with more debt as the current operation is a shambles.

Yes but they won't get a fraction of what they're owed.

So they will give them company a 6 months holiday or another £5m or maybe even £10m if it gets close. The admin process will be one of last resort.

I don't think Hummingbird even has a chance of going bust before Kouroussa ( i think Coris will support it as they kind of have to now ).

If you think Hummingbird is going to go bust after Kouroussa starts pouring gold then thats a whole other question but i'd like to see your maths. I don't think that's likely.

There is no sense in the lenders trying to ' own an asset '. Owning a freehold is one thing and having first refusal rights over equipment is another but the idea Coris will somehow own all of hummingbirds assets at some point because they miss a repayment is crazy. Banks will do anything not to end up in this position.

Well Kouroussa is on budget and thats a massive chunk of the cash you mention right there. Even roughly the numbers do make sense.

Numbers are indeed hard to take. I am only still here as i really think Coris will help get Kouroussa into production and after that things will ease considerably. I'm not scared of 130m debt in the context of what should happen to the business.

That said it looks increasingly difficult to accept the way these guys run mines. I mean if a sliver of this incompetence reaches Kouroussa we are so much trouble i can't bear to think about it.

Gold is slipping a lot but we only need something to break ( i think we are probably close ) as a result of this hiking and the dollar will go into reverse and gold should go back to nice levels.

I accept the dollar could strengthen for another year without pausing for breath but i think that's unlikely.

It looks like all the blame is on the mining contractor and management of this contractor ( again ).
Make of that what you will.

Worth saying these RNS now are well presented with information compared to a year ago. Without being silly there isn't much missing from the announcements that you'd want ( apart from improvements ! ).

This performance is normal i.e totally predicatably useless. If i did my job like this for 2 years i'd have got the sack after 6 months.

That said noone believes Yanfolila is a valuable thing anymore - we are looking to Dugbe, Kouroussa and Yanfolila as a less profitable mine long term best case. The fact they do not appear to be going bust is a huge plus. I'm totally fine with a bit of extra debt to get us there.

Don't sell out of panic if this isn't going bust it doesn't make any sense. They will not equity raise and as i've said before have great support from Coris.

This isn't a dreadful rns at all but i wish they would make my life easier and at least break even at Yanfolila!!

I am 150% deeply suspicious about a 1400 aisc in q4. I don't now believe anything they say about Yanfolila but i don't need to. I don't think they are going to go bust and they can finance through debt not equity - nothing else really matters at this stage.

Or the dollar retreats and we go to 2000

If when hummingbird was at its best you bought and then sold now because it all looks bad you would have some pretty fuzzy thinking for profit.

You have to ask yourself where this will be in the future and see how you like the odds.

Right now i'd rather not be in this at all for the reasons you said and the pain of watching this company run through operational error after operational error.

However buying at this price when it might turn out to be making 16m a year just with a 100 dollar margin at 160,000 ounces seems good value right?

What are the odds it does that and gets there? or maybe it does far better? The maths is above is very simple but also quite conservative if it gets there. Entirely up to you sir.

Don't forget the company confirmed they have very supportive bankers ( Coris ) who are determined to see Kouroussa reach production. Probably because they are in as much crap as Humm if they didn't take this stance.

The guessing game is simply what debt Humm has and what sort of combined production profile/costing they have around 9 months from now.

And of course what Dugbe might be worth right now...

100% not having fun no. But i also think markets are about to totally capitulate - feels that way to me.

I'm only interested in the q3 update with their new aisc, production numbers and reassurance on Kouroussa and the cash position.

Probably not a good market to be selling Dugbe in. Still it doesn't have to be worth a lot to make this valuation of Humm look stupid now.

As ever - fingers crossed.

We've also got rapidly falling costs now i think too ( sadly that includes gold ).

9 months till first gold pour and a very supportive bank who will make sure we get there through debt one way or the other ( by the sounds of it ).

Personally i look around the market and see everything offered at very very good prices. The market is certainly very depressed at the moment i'm convinced of it.

Sent

I sent a list of bits to the company regarding cashflows etc. I won't bore you with the lengthly reply which is obviously slightly vague on exact numbers given i'm just a single investor.

But they drew attention twice to the fact they have a very supportive partner in Coris bank to ensure Kouroussa makes it to operation.

I think this is significant, thought i would share.

As you say just lack of liquidity. You try buying 20k at any point tomorrow !

Stating the obvious but at 4m a few days ago buying 20k would have been a huge chunk of the free float and it seems the long term holders are not selling but rather slowly buying up more and more.

I agree that if this shows a reason for investors to take note it could go a lot higher quite quickly. I’m sure at a level not far above this the bid would be attractive to a few people.

But if Florence is right then the nav is now even higher and why sell too much below that!?