Member Info for Gunsup

Morning Bros.

Mr Skier

Respect.

No doubt with this one that the sentiment is very bearish.. The hawks didn't get to pull the trigger on rates in the USA so lets see what Baileys crew do today...

Starmer needs to step up and start to look like he has a plan. At moment he is MIA.

UAE leaving OPEC is a big deal that is for sure. They have hundreds of billions of lost revenue to make up and if they pump like there no tomorrow then oil prices will swing wildy...

BoE have red flags on the beaches.. Labour party spokesman acting like corporal Jones.. But who you believe no doubt there is a problem heading our way.

We become over reliant on imports and if that disrupted as it look likely back to Covid days with too many chasing to few goods...

Morning Bros..

Lots of the topic been discussed this week..

Fertilizers, we always have the natural and then of course the Uk sit pretty as we has the Woodsmith project...

Big Day for Mr Starmer..As the Clash would put this "Should I Stay or Should I Go"..

Germany , lots happening. If AFD get into power they will look at mass deportations and a whole shift back to Russian energy.. Alice Weidel very powerful speaker... The fuse is lit..

Suprised not a few vacancies cropping up for head of homeland security in USA after the situation Mr Trump ended up in. How that happen?

Shanghai motor show only the 1400 new models on display. ... This is more models than Uk produced in last 50 years ..

Mr Bailey and his crew got a choice to make this week. Basic financial policy or a political cop out...

So bring us back to Iran... The big question mark..

Looking like someone putting their head above the parapet...Bank of England deputy....

Sarah Breeden

"The Bank of England expects stock markets around the world to fall as share prices do not reflect the many risks facing the global economy, its deputy governor has told the BBC"....

Are we not seeing this in some sectors already?

By some metrics India, the U.S., and Japan stand out as having the most expensive stock markets....

Mr Ambrose for the mail.. "World asset markets have lost their fairy godmother…Thanks to Trump’s war with Iran, the foundations of the US dollar system have come into question".... For sure this stop start war is causing a lot of problems,,,

Mr Gray

Respect..

For sure more weapons been fired at Iran that was used in the Gulf war and the US inventory is low, these missiles take a long time to make and are costly. There is also the support from Congress to consider......

"Under the 1973 War Powers Resolution, engagements that haven't been authorized by Congress are capped at 60 days".... The clock is ticking with this one....

Mr Trump making a lot of very aggressive statements re his NATO partners.... Not going to help his cause ... Prince Harry need to keep his nose out as well..

Our own Govt getting bogged down with Starmer when we have major problems to tackle.

So any left of field things happening?

Crest Nicholson took a beating yesterday. One off or are cracks appearing in the house building sector?

CEO and CFO of Fermi stepping down. This company once valued circa $12bn , which is developing private electric grids to deliver power at the scale needed for AI.. Partners with many well known names but it seem no customers !!...DYOR.

Looking at Global P/E Ratios by Country indicate a lot of overvalued markets..

https://worldperatio.com/

Using another metric also interesting...Global Shiller PE Ratios

https://siblisresearch.com/data/cape-ratios-by-country/

Morning Bros.

Mr Simple. Maybe USA should just go home !!.. So what does it mean to people... Men , women and children. Well what is said if this turn out to be true is shocking to put this mildly and Europe can expect a surge in refugees..

"About 70% of the food for Saudi Arabia, Iraq and the Gulf emirates passes through Hormuz.

Replacing disrupted food imports for about 100 million people would require moving almost 100 million kilograms (kg) of food into the region daily by other means".

Good luck with that one through contested airspace...

As for our borders.. Let me say this.

Now you cannot fully secure your own house. So what if someone break in and you return home to find them there... What do you do?

Mr Skier

Respect

Is a good post that one....

Mr Simple

For sure we cannot secure our borders but is what we do with people that arrive here illegally is the question... There are choices and some will act as strong deterrents...

I will add this.

Cost of uncapping child benefit circa £3bn . The very next week Mrs Reeves wanting money for defence. Well she had the choice weapons or the welfare and as with the choice work or welfare she chooses the latter...

Mr Simple

Respect.

I'll not dwell on this topic as I have said my piece. But.....

"With family of five children, £90,000 a year now needed to match jobless household’s combined benefit income"..."Jobless families on combined benefits will now take home £18,000 more per year than the post-tax wages of a working family, following the abolition of the two child limit, a new analysis reveals".

https://www.centreforsocialjustice.org.uk/newsroom/post-budget-research

UBI still not that far away......

Morning Bros..

Unemployment rate 4.9% Ummh.

Well my own view this one is that it is zero...

If you are paid to work or not work by the Govt what is the difference especially when being paid not to work is in some cases higher that being paid to do something.. Plus the added bonus you will never not be paid or need to find someone else to pay you not to work. Plus last one if you have children is the only "employer " I know that pays you more for that...!!!

Mr Harley

Respect.

Mr Milton Freeman he says this long time ago..

“You cannot simultaneously have free immigration and a welfare state"...

Is commonsense sense that is for sure...

Very easy to play the system once you are in and it seem despite all the red flags very few checks .... Princess Ogheneakpobor Ojeh a recent example..https://www.mylondon.news/news/south-london-news/fraudster-south-london-mum-pretended-33791214

Unemployment drifting over the two million ...

I was wondering why the markets still buoyant, who buying? Investor sentiment is shaky. Economy is misfiring? Beyond our borders is chaos..? So what going on?

The FTSE 100 was called to open down around 45 points. At 0720 BST, Brent crude was up 5.2% at $95.08 a barrel.

Morning Bros.

Mr Trouble

Respect

The right is might expansionist policies of Israel and the USA are a disaster for anyone else that is for sure...

One thing to watch is interest rate policy.. Last thing and Govt will want is a devaluation against the dollar given oil is traded in dollars. Japan very aware with this one....So what Mr Bailey do? Rates up will hurt the economy at some point but for banks should increase NIM..

Today we see what happen next. Looking like China joining the poker game. Two warships and support ship en route.. It a low hand they are playing but lets see .. Turkey also getting increasingly vocal re Israel... Turkey has a big army and is a key NATO player.

Mr Cromwell

Respect.

Not much to vote for..

The Muslim green party is in many ways the green party......

"We would like to congratulate Hannah Spencer on her victory in the historic Gorton and Denton by-election. As Muslim Greens, we are proud that our party ran an inclusive and hopeful campaign, with the Muslim community being at the heart of this momentous effort".

https://muslimgreens.greenparty.org.uk/

MR STP..

Lot happening on the war fronts..

I note Mr Zelensky did his Europe trip and if is true what is reported 10's of thousands of Ukrainian men who fled the country maybe be repatriated. Or as Mr Merz put it and is reported in Ukraine media. They will work closely with Ukrainian citizens who have sought refuge and will make it easier for them to return home.. No doubt Mr Zelensky is short of man power and is needed circa 300,000... So this another space to watch..

Meanwhile the USA ramping up troop and military hardware assets in the Middle East...

As we say before where there a problem...

In other news Premium bonds rates cut from 3.6% to 3.3%.... Interesting as a lot of other providers have been putting rates up... Bit of sleight of hand by the Govt? Maybe....

Mr STP

Respect.

As they say we will keep an eye on this one.. Mrs Reeves is not alone...

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/04/19/reeves-in-talks-over-war-bonds-to-fund-defence-spending/

Mr Shaz

Respect..

For sure the magic money tree exist but you got to know what it look like. I might be wrong with this one but two dots in my mind join this week.

Dot 1. Govt pushing pensions funds further under their control to "invest"...

Dot 2. Mrs Reeves talking about war bonds.... around £18bn has been muted..

As you is saying the uncapping child benefit... Well at best looking very badly timed and I agree really they should not have done this...

STP

Respect..

For sure is going to get messy .. We have to see how the other parties act.. China in particular...

Maybe its time Uk follows Spain lead and buy LNG from Russia as well as oil... Is there much difference between us buying Russian oil and China buying Russian oil to make the goods which we buy ?

I was also thinking this one... How come the Govt put a figure of unemployment circa 4.2% when the real figure is zero... On this basis. If you are being paid by someone that is akin to being employed. Now say the doctor, he get his pay from the state.. Also if you are "unemployed you get paid by the state but your contract does not expect you to work in return. Same for the pensioner... So if all getting paid by the state is there really any unemployment whatsoever? especially when benefits can exceed people working wages?

Also is a funny thing. Taxis... Now many taxis are very old on the road but people need to own a car so they can start to make a living... So how come the Govt will effectively give a car via motability to someone that doesn't need it to make a living?

Morning Bros...

Reported today strait maybe shut again !!!

One of the best speakers I have heard recently was Senator Bernie Sanders . ( 785,000 views in 1 day) A very wise man indeed. Firstly he condemn the attack by Palestinian militants and questions how complicit are the Americans having given over $20bn dollars to Israel to commit genocide and its ongoing campaign on the West bank and lebanon which the American public have little appetite for and at a time when 60% of Americans are living paycheck to paycheck and the country is $37 trillion in debt

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_kJDNa4Znqc

Mr Trouble.

We must not forget this one .. Where there is a problem there is also the opportunity.. We see this with REEs, Renewables and defence related stocks which we been discussing on here for a long time...