Member Info for Guitarsolo

When to use quotation marks ('single' or "double")......discuss!

Thoughts and prayers with some of our bulletin board tonight.

We can't be too far away from the Q3 dividend announcement. Q3 is where there has historically been any change in the quarterly dividend. I guess there are three possibilities:

(i) Dividend increase. In line with the last 10+ years (actually longer), the dividend may be increased. If so, expect no more than 0.1p per quarter (to 4 x 6.1p = 24.4p). More realistically, a minimal increase to 6.05p (24.2ppa). IF they do this, it is a good sign from Mike Kerley that they still see good dividend growth coming through.
(ii) Dividend maintained at 4 x 6.0p (24ppa). This would signal a continuing slowing of growth and a sign that the divi cover is already as stretched as is comfortable.
(iii) Dividend is cut because underlying earnings are too low. This would be very bad news and probably terminal for Mike Kerley as so much rests on the dividend payout. I would imagine this would lead to a kitchen-sink cut to make sure it is not required again for another 10 years. However, such is the reputational damage that would be done, I put the probablility of this as extremely low and they would use the reserves to smooth over anything other than a disastrous shortfall.

My guess is (i) with either a 0.1 or 0.05p increase. They don't publish the reserve with the quarterly dividend announcements. Shame, as that is a good indicator of overall income.

Guitarsolo

I came to the same conclusion. Staude Capital has completely screwed shareholders by forcing this. They have achieved nothing except to remove a solid dividend payer.
VSL will need to be as positive as it can be to wind down at the best price possible.
I'd imagine we'll get the regular 2p dividend for a short while, until the underlying investments can no longer generate it. Then it will reduce proportionately. But at the same time we might get quarterly or half-yearly capital returns. But that's just my guess having not really been through this sort of thing before.
Anyone have relevant experience here?

ade, you attended the webinar with Mike Kerley. Why didn't you ask him?

It's amusing how eventually most people see through LTI! The constant "I'm right, you're wrong" is so tiresome. Shut down any conversation that he doesn't like. Not an ounce of humility. The need to tell everyone his portfolio is £xx,000,000 says so much! The extra digit or two (whether genuine or not) is purely there to belittle you and make him feel superior. You can bet he was one of those bankers who really thought they were the masters of the universe!
It's a shame really as I am sure he does have some valid points and knowledge to add to conversations. But he simply can't get past his own ego and the need to bully people and have the last word.....Hence we get 20, 30 sometimes 40 posts a day from him on a single board!

Thanks for the heads up Andy! I too had sent HL a message so it is good to see the restriction has been lifted. I have replaced the shares that were consolidated and continue to slowly build a position.
All the best.

"Reminds me of the Labour minister who left a note to his Tory replacement which said "There is no money left"?....meant as a joke (perhaps?!) but used by the Tories ever since as proof that Labour aren't good at running the country."

In 1964 Reginald Maudling (Conservative) left a note for incoming Labour Chancellor Jim Callaghan to say "sorry to leave it in such a mess".

As you say, most likely meant as a joke. People need to be educated enough to see through the BS of politicians and this government in particular.

Chid, I am afraid you're well of the mark there. Newcomers (as you call them), are far more likely to be hard working and to try and build a better life for themselves in their adopted country. History all over the world shows that. The spongers (as you call them) tend to be the 3rd/4th/5th (or forever) generations that feel entitled to state support by birth right.
History has also shown us (catastrophically) that political powers will try and manipulate people into blaming minority groups as it is far easier to do that than for them to accept blame for their own failures. So the questions you should be asking yourself is who is trying to make you blame the newcomers and why?

I haven't done it yet WB. Shame you haven't realised that you will still have to deal with me, but I won't have to deal with you! Oh well, there's no accounting for low IQ!

Scandi, I take a view (a view, not the view) that part of the purpose of companies focusing on ESG factors is to try and create or preserve a better long term future for their investments. It would be all very well to maximise investor returns in the short term, but if societies break down, or climate change causes severe damage, in the long run we all lose (including those investors).

[Unless somehow you've got a seat on SpaceX's shuttle to the Mars colony.]

Wenglish, what a sad little man you are. If you had the first knowledge of what I do you would **** yourself!

On to the filter with the anti-vaxxers and ******s.

I guess that proves you're too wimpish to own your own decisions.

Wenglish,
The vote was to leave or remain.
Not one of those things on your Brexit wishlist was on the ballot.
But you voted to leave anyway.
So leave we did.
And everything that goes with it is down to your vote.
Take responsibility for it you wimp.

The KID is there, but I still get the following message if I try to buy on HL:

"This stock is currently unavailable to buy. Regulation requires HL to display information about costs and charges, but we don’t have access to this information at the moment. You can hold or sell any existing shares, but you can't currently buy more. We're sorry for any inconvenience."

Are others successfully buying?!

Morning Rivaldo,
Yes, it all reads quite nicely and I'm pleased that I stuck to my guns of slowly building a reasonable shareholding. It's still great value at this price.
- Production issues sorted.
- Capacity still expanding as planned.
- £290m order book.
- £393m in the pipeline.
- Further (confidential) discussions ongoing with new and current OEMs to expand the customer base.

Guitarsolo

Gullybullfek appeared on LSE 48 hours ago and has posted nearly 50 times already, mostly about vaccines. He/she has been reported already but I suggest you all just put him/her on filter. Let him/her talk into a void.
Have a lovely Easter all.
Guitarsolo

Beardozer "What nobody addresses is the need for an office for WFH workers to attend occasionally."

My experience is in the City rather than RGL's geographical territory. However, trends from London usually ripple out.

In the City, I would say almost every one of my large clients (1,000 employees+) has moved to a form of hot-desking. Whether that involves pre-booking or first-come-first-served or pre-determined days in the office, it doesn't really matter. It means they are all squeezing 1,000 employees onto 300-400 desks.

Smaller companies are actually caught in between for the moment. However, I "removed" one of of employee's desks that was only being used max. one day a month and told him he could use any desk that was free (incl. mine!). He wasn't happy but when I explained his desk costs around £8k a year that works out at a hell of a day rate.

Many clients have remote staff (and I am actually down in the South West) who were coming up once a week, now it is once a month. We're all dealing with each other over video calls etc.

I am most definitely NOT saying that the need for human face-to-face interraction is over, it most definitely is not (in my line of work I need to be able to read "the person and the room"!). However, from an office context, make no mistake that companies will reduce their office space and the rent as a % of revenue. (I would says ours has dropped from about 8% to 5% since 2020).

So what RGL needs is to offer (a) the office space that people want, and (b) squeeze say 10 companies into the space previously occuiped by 5. It should in theory be win-win. However, the losers will be those without desireable office space to offer.

Guitarsolo

Trotsky, why the aggression?!
EPS is under pressure and has been for years (mostly because of Covid). I've held RGL since the days when it had EPS over 9p and paid 8.2p as a dividend. EPS is now down to 6.6p and the dividend has followed. There is a trend there.
Of course, things can improve (and as a holder, I hope they will). But RGL's occupancy has always been in the high-80s %, so whilst there is capacity the company has rarely been able to increase this. Why should we think it will now?
Slide 52 of their most recent presentation (https://www.regionalreit.com/~/media/Files/R/Regional-Reit-V2/investor-docs/results-and-presentations/rgl-presentation-dec-2022.pdf) shows RGL as a yield outlier. History tells us when yields get this high there is often a dividend cut coming.
The falling NAV doesn't pose an immediate threat to banking covenants, but if it falls further who knows? LTV is still above 40% which is my comfort level being invested in several REITs.
There is always room for some good news (e.g. letting of a previously unlet property), but it feels to me that the company can't take much more bad news without the dividend suffering.
As for WFH, well as a company director who has recently negotiated a new office lease, it is clear to me that we will want less office space. This extends to about 85% of my clients who are generally working about 1 or 2 days in the office as a maximum. That might be because my work is very international and therefore quite suited to not being in the office during UK office hours. But virtually every company I know is taking less office space. Forget your Jacob Rees-Mogg "everyone must be back at their desks", it ain't happening! [NB. I am referring to the City here where the rental market might be rather different to say an office park in Oldham.]
If RGL keeps the dividend at 1.65p on 24 May then they are confident enough to have the earnings to cover it. But I for one do not think it is a given.
Guitarsolo

Yes Trotsky, I am aware of the requirement to pay out 90% of net earnings to maintain REIT status! You can extrapolate my comment if you like that the market is expecting EPS to fall such as 90% of it would be 4-4.5ppa!
We've seen this before with external pressures (incl. Covid) pushing down EPS which inevitably reduces the dividend as well. As I am holding a reasonable number, I would prefer it is not the case and if the share price could hover around 58-60p then perhaps we could hope the dividend is secure. But it is fallen to 50p for a share that is all about the yield. RGL is now a significant outlier in terms of yield on REITs. That to me indicates a dividend cut is coming. We will find out when the Q1 dividend is announced, which I think is 24 May 2023.