RE: HFEL30 Oct 2023 21:05
James, I think you’re mostly right with all of that! The bottom line is that the shares that HFEL has invested in have depreciated significantly in what is a horrid global market. Too much debt, too much frothy valuations based on what might be the next big thing. HFEL does seem to most closely align with the Hang Seng, which is somewhat strange as Hong Kong only accounts for 11.5% of the portfolio, about the same as S.Korea and Taiwan and less than Australia or China. But there you go.
Well done Bott for at least making the effort to engage with the company and for posting their reply to you. There are no great reveals of course but there are no obvious statements where they are hoist on their own petard. For example, an explanation that the funds from new issue are purposefully directed towards stock about to go ex-dividend (which is logical as those new shares need to be contributing to the pot as quickly as possible given the level of dividend cover).
Speaking of new issue shares, Cane Toad I don’t agree with your take on this. If new shares are issued at a premium (and they always have been) then that is beneficial to the existing shareholders, albeit marginally, at the time of issue. They have been used to buy more dividend paying shares which, unfortunately, have fallen in value as well. Hence we have the same book value but more shares, hence a lower book value per share.
As for the conspiracy theories raised re dividend washing, I agree with you James that there are agendas here. No one who espouses them has the evidence to back it up, primarily because I don’t think that data is available to us (individual trade data and lots of it). When people without any skin in the game want to talk down an investment I always wonder why. They may be right, they may be wrong.