focusIR May 2024 Investor Webinar: Blue Whale, Kavango, Taseko Mines & CQS Natural Resources. Catch up with the webinar here.
From the H1 results.
"Okay. Let me answer that one. Opening or closing mines are big decisions and sometimes can be costly decisions. You would not want to take that decision lightly. In answering Tim, if you listened, I said in our portfolio we want assets that are competitive. We put Bokoni on care and maintenance because it didn’t quite fit those criteria. And I think the results actually show that it was the right decision. I would not rush to reopen it purely because at current prices short term it generates cash, when actually strategically it doesn’t fit our portfolio. I wouldn’t do that necessarily. Would we go out and look for quick wins? You know it as well as I do. Opening mines it not a short-term thing. It’s two to three years before you actually open it. Therefore, if you’re going to do that, you want to have conviction about the medium to long term about where prices are going. Our opportunities are actually around our portfolio, making sure that this portfolio is delivering to its full potential. And we see value in that."
July Ndlovu.
Horse' s mouth.
Hi Dabbler,
With respect, and also the 8 that have ticked you up so far....
I didn't hear anything negative in the interview after my three listens. Thank you for posting the link. Couldn't tick you up though...
If you are taking the negativity from Mr Ndlovu not being pinned down on expansion then please listen and watch further interviews. He states TGA do not "need" to make any major decisions prior to 2023. At the present time the concentration is on streamlining the business and reducing the % reduction from benchmark.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d8K-hyw6B9U
There's loads of stuff out there. Thanks to whoever initially posted the hour long podcast with Deon Smith....blimey 160k in 5.58...interestingly Deon mentions the Boatman nonsense a couple of times, but he goes in to a bit more detail at the end...
I don't think a fire and collapse of a single conveyor at RBCT will stop export or necessarily effect it much...
But then again, I whinged about a derailment in one of my first posts on TGA...and the price actually went up.
The overall trajectory for the company has not been altered. You could argue that the last week's insane prices for coal have now been tempered with Putin probably releasing more Gas to the EU, and coal mines being "told" to output 100m tons in Inner Mongolia. It "had" to be stopped though, I mean the insane rate of climb of the coal indeces.....but things are predicted to get higher...from now and for a few months...we'll see, bloody hope so.
Crawshaw, I was your first "tick up", for your mention of "consolidation" because yes, hopefully, consolidation, whether that is here or a bit lower.
I posted something like "It was expected", yesterday referring to the drop in price. I wasn't being negative at all although it could have sounded like that. I would have found it very hard a few days ago to post something like "It's going up a little bit fast for my liking", I probably would have got slated. No I didn't sell and I'm not trying to make out I made any call and yes I get completely swept up in the fervour when it does shoot up...
T.G.A. All The Way!
This was posted by "Neversellshell22" over on the RDSB board.....don't panic.....well maybe a bit...stick some more coal on the fire...
"Imagine being frightened, poor, cold and hungry.
What happens in a once in every 25 year British winter with a 2ft blanket of snow covering the UK and much more snow in some areas from the Midlands up.
What happens when the snowfall is followed by a 4 to 6 week weather system high over the UK and temperatures are averaging -3 degree during the day and -10 at night and no wind to speak of.
What happens to all the electric ambulances, fire engines, snowploughs, lorries, trains, buses and cars trying to operate under these conditions.
How do we heat hospitals, schools, offices, factories, shops , warehouses, supermarkets and millions of homes with electric elements which are bigger versions of the elements you find in your kettle.
Imagine the chaos and panic as everyone suffers from no heating and power blackouts and tens of thousands of people dying because of the cold, no food and no access to health care.
All because of a new religion created by the Green Taliban aka Greta the goblin of doom and Extinction Rebellion and a bunch of clown politicians.
The problem is we will be taken down a dead end road doing immense damage to our wealth and freedoms (while we look at the rest of the world with their cheaper energy, warm homes, personal transport and lovely holidays in other countries) until we finally come to our senses. By which time the UK will resemble a cold wet version of Cuba.
Courtesy on andy king advn/daily mail"
All the best.
https://www.tradinghours.com/markets/lse/hours
Check this though and as ever I am wrong....
Hi SR123 and SIDI,
I think references to pre market and after hours trades are US.
Get more than one source of information.
There are after hours trades in the UK, but not on an "after hours" or "pre market" platform like the US.
I'm not sure though,.
Hi RedbullRJ,
I find this one quite useful.
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/coal/coal-api-4-fob-richards-bay-argus-mccloskey.quotes.html
Also, I've only just started playing around with the tabs at the top so, contradictory to things I've waffled about in the past...it does give you more of an idea of contract numbers and tonnages, but admittedly I don't fully understand it.
Hope it helps.
:-)
Hi sjsrace,
Yes, you're right. The guidance suggests 15-16mt export for 2021.
If we did about 6.589mt in H1 (I'm using the export equity sales from H1 results. I'm aware I have used a figure of something like 6.68mt previously, but can't honestly remember where it was from.), then add 50% and you actually get 9.8835mt, so add them together and you get 16.4725mt....so, yes I am being a little rampy with the figures.
Don't forget we mined more than we exported in H1 plus we have two stockpiles at RBCT that hold over a million tons in total....if TFR mess up for a few days every so often we're covered for weeks of downtime. There are also stockpiles at the collieries, ideally not the best scenario, but that should also cover us for any short pit closures.
Think the coffee's worked... :-)
Hi aro03,
Yes it could be slightly different from other sources, I wouldn't worry too much about trying to be "completely" exact as we don't know "exactly" how much coal is being loaded at RBCT or sold in to the domestic market at any time.
But we do know there's a very good chance that TGA will deliver about 9m tons at RBCT.....about 50% more than H1 ...
Sorry , forgot this..massive deramp again compared to present prices...
https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/5d903e848db1d1b83e0ec8f744e55570-0350012021/related/CMO-Pink-Sheet-October-2021.pdf
.
Yes, almost not believing my eyes.
$236 for API4 for Nov and $240 for Newcastle...will we cross over..?
So will there be a $300 with either/both benchmarks on the horizon....?
Anything seems possible, with TGA positioned perfectly now and for at least the next 18 months.
Just been looking at May 6 again, yawn... for Khwezela. We should reach steady state by the end of 2021...so the probable 2mt will gain 40% and become 2.8mt...so when we receive results for 2021 we should already be getting better production at the face because of ramped up production..... :-)
https://www.miningweekly.com/article/weekly-sa-coal-report-2021-10-04/rep_id:3650
Last week's average only £211 apparently.....