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Its a shame this BB has sank to its current depths - been a few characters along the way - some real and some not so real
But the last few weeks has been full of -
1) Childish irrelevant posts
2) Gloating about other peoples losses and how they are losers
3) Blowing out of a proportion an 80% profit whilst many they critical of sit on 200/300% because they got in earlier or traded themselves a better position
4) Constant pushing that LTH is the 'only' and 'best' way
5) Nobody really interested in analysing the SP and its movements - because they are LTH - yet monitor every bit of crappy info they can find - surely if u are long term hold - go read a book in your greenhouse and chill ?
Personally I am going to back out of this BB until its useful again
I will leave the new breed sucking each others chop
NW - We touched 1988 on 5th Feb
I see a push on to 2200p ish before any stall/retrace in next couple of days
after that I can see 2 options - 1 push on to 2450p for Results day or retrace back to 2000p
Just trying to work out which - over next couple of days as SP floats sideways with the FTSE
I wont bang on about it any more
I remember when dimi and WG were discussing it last year
As a none waver it was just gobble dee gook and boring
What ever the overlay of the maps are they point out 2 things
1 - This drop
2 - Its a minor drop in the grand scheme of AML share - Thankyou Mr Stroll
Mad man
I am on a bigger timescale .. but I am on an ABC retrace
A - Fri 15th Jan
B - Tues 2nd Feb
C - Ongoing Motive 5 wave move down.. this will be split ( 5 wave (a) .. zig zag (b) .. five wave (c) )
And here is the problem on Elliot waves - They can be interpreted in many ways - i can map many diff stories over the SP trace haha
If your right with an ABC now then anybody topping up wins the prize as that would make this the bottom
All food for thought - Still learning
ME32
Honest answer - is I don't know - sorry
Anybody interested can have a look at Elliot waves on google
They are not a great idea unless you have a lot of time and like to have your brain fired trying to work it all out
I have 16 shares in my portfolio and can only do it on 6 - its taking me that long at the moment lol
Cekim - Elliot waves are based on human psychology and buying patterns
Example
Lets start at end of a massive retrace, where the share turns from very negative to positive .. you get
Small 1st wave with nearly full retrace - Pro's and day traders spot reversal - day traders sell hence big retrace to point 2
Wave 3 - rest of the Pro's and some savvy retailers get in .. big buys . big gains followed by profit taking hence pause and drop
final wave is retailers who eventually spot the trend and get on just in time for a bit of gain and massive retrace (that was me !!)
On retrace its the reverse
SP is dropping
Little 1st wave - only pros see reversal
massive next drop - which pauses with mini retrace because retail and others think good time to top up
large final drop to the point where people think too cheap and rebuy
I have Aston at end of the massive drop - people topping up thinking its the bottom before the final drop .... however I am sitting here wondering myself if this is the bottom even though 4 hours of work tell me its a biggish pause followed buy another 100p to 120p drop
Fun but stressful - there are a lot of benefits of just being a LTH haha
NW - updated the map 15 minutes ago
But - Please don't trade on my mapping because I am learning and its tricky. Hopefully your just buying trances on way down
The waves are tricky beast to map Live - you have 5 micro waves making one wave - that is 1 of 5 of an even bigger wave
Hardest bit is comparing the right size wave to the historic waves to get the shape
Anyway - the one thing you cant say is the speed of the drop and the size of each section of the wave.
The faster it drops the lower it will end up as its going to meet a rising support line at a lower position
But - The longer the waves pause the higher the SP will finish
So I have a final window of 1860p to 1940p
I did say a few posts ago 1980p but - its dropped fast - and thats the problem - you can spot a reversal and the trend with Elliot waves - but then you have to watch them forming to make a very accurate entry SP or sell
I sold some at 2257p - but only like 10% because I dont trust myself yet - then a lot more at 2162p once the trend was confirmed - but not all ... as I still dont trust myself haha
But when I rebuy .. I should have a few % more than last week - and for me thats the fun
This share ands all shares are very predictable - but it can take hrs to map them and are high maintenance each day to 'run'
I have not enjoyed writing this email because I do not want people to use it to trade - I am happy to make my own mistakes and do not mind being wrong as its only my money - haha
My opinion only
PS speed of todays drop is normal for a wave 3 inside a larger wave 3 - most powerful bit of the overall drop this. ... will take a breath soon and pause sideways before the next and final drop - Again hard to be accurate live - thats just my judgement
Tiny - Its what they show - but I am learning, if anything the timing will be a few weeks out, it always seem to take the SP a little longer that my forecast to get to the point .. but The charts have been accurate so far in terms of SP Value
Interesting that a wave collapses at results time .. haha
But - so far this year most SP's drop on results - Good bad or indifferent
And as the waves flow the day to day/week to week/wave to wave fluctuation is not that relevant until we get to the 5th wave of the 5th wave ... in many years time .. then it will retrace 50 to 60 % .. from probably £900 to £400/share hehe ... we will all have Aston's by then and not care
Interesting that Tesla is on the 5th wave now of the 5th wave which is forecast to terminate at approx $970 .. lets see if that collapses back to $400 in next 18 months .. The waves never lie haha
1190p to 1210p is my forecast bottom - using a combo of Elliot waves and Reversal tools etc
OK - thats the end of the Zig (short term drop) .. dropped to within forecast window nicely
Now its time for the Zag back up ... probably wont get to top of Zag today .. note the zag is itself a 3 wave up
for the guys waiting for 1800p - nowhere near it on that drop - was never going to be, size of this next increase and pattern will determine the size of the final drop in this correction
This is a mid wave drop and tend to be much smaller than end of wave drops
NW - I have rebuy range of 2130 - 2060p on the 1st 'Zig'
I might sell that rebuy at top of the next Zag and rebuy on the 3rd and final Zig before it takes off again
This 1st Zig is losing momentum so might split my rebuy and start rebuying now - you cant lose at this point as its will bounce soon and just be pragmatic if you dont get the absolute bottom
As I type it looks like end of 1st zig haha
Please don't trade off my info - always use your own judgement
Little bit of energy left in the 1st drop of the correction ... its going to bounce back .. but will drop again !! as this is a zig zag correction
Like a say - quick Zig Zag correction before it pushes on another £2/3 easily
I have this pegged as the expected mid wave correction. Will drop to around 2115 - 2075 then yoyo about sideways for a bit in 2250 to 2075 channel before strong push on towards the £30. Hopefully £30 pre results