Member Info for grouchomarx

Slowly, then all at once?

Shares on 24-2 should have notified SURE ultimately yesterday. Will SURE release an RNS today? They should, unless the seller hasn’t notified them (exemption?). If no RNS today is it fair to think MFAI hasn’t been the seller?

The seller of SURE

Anything is possible nowadays, a lot of people buying with leverage maybe especially so in sectors that do get a lot of attention. Overconfidence can ruin investors. A lot of people buying on margin, if that goes wrong it really goes wrong. So yes, I would not rule out some being forced out of a position (being liquidated).

Sometimes I hate Occam’s razor though: only one party that we know of that could sell that number of SURE shares.

Well, I’ve been given this being related to Napster some thought.

If Napster has a value of zero the nav per share SURE would drop from 170p to 93p.

As MFAI values her holding in SURE at market price, the Napster value of zero on itself has no influence on MFAI’s nav.

However the drop in SURE’s share price to 40p has. That effect would cause MFAI’s nav to drop from 1,98p to 1,82p. No reason whatsoever to start selling SURE shares for 20,5-21p.

Besides MFAI’s nav being effected by SURE’s price drop, there is also the fact that MFAI’s holds Napster shares through the SV1 vehicle.

If Napster has zero value then the nav of MFAI would drop further to 1,24p.

If MFAI sold SURE shares for less than 40p it’s nav would drop some more.

So, where do we stand?

If Napster’s value is zero:

SURE’s nav is 93p, current sp 45p or so, thus a discount of >50%;

MFAI’s nav is 1,24p current sp 0,45, thus a discount of >60%.

Take your pick! :)

Mind you, this is a worst case scenario, one in which Napster has no value at all.

To be frank I would expect sure and mfai to give an explanation.

Yes. I’ve tried to look into the outstanding shares when Sure got listed on the LSE in 2018 and since and TR-1 filings but I can’t find anyone that would be in a position to sell 800,000 and/or 1,400,000 shares of Sure. Very, very, strange. A party exempt from filing a TR-1 then and one that had to liquidate. It happens. Unfortunately share prices dropped because of it, but it’s also a good opportunity to add or start a position. Anyway, BOL!

Someone that wanted or needed to get out, not tomorrow or in the next week, but on that day. That large volume buyers were found at 20.5-21p level. Question remains: who sold and why? The only one I can think of would be Mindflair, but that would make no sense at all.

Forget that, that was pires investments inc

Good find! Story is getting stranger though: try their website. Are they hacked?

MFAI would make no sense. They have cash. Must be the other one. I would not be surprised if MFAI increased it’s holding.

You would expect (the broker of) a distressed seller to get in touch with other larger shareholders if they would be interested in buying?

Now wouldn’t it be nice if MFAI took up some of those shares?

Good find! Must be a very distressed seller.Now who could that be?

And 1.5 million @20.5p???

800,000 sold @21p today?

Will base my decision to add on first half hour of trading.

There is no direct connection between TERN and MFAI as far as I know, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they share a lot of the same shareholders. Maybe people freeing up some money to participate in TERN’s open offer? Don’t know, just speculation.

Probably. But it’s also an opportunity .

Yes, it will. Maybe MFAI should increase their position at this firesale price. ;)