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If all continues to go well here, I imagine Woodford, for the Patient Capital holding at least, will wait until a buyout. That's surely the investment strategy for Patient Capital, and in my view ReNeuron is a hot ticket.
I have it on good authority that Woodford remain excited about ReNeuron's potential. That doesn't mean they won't reduce their holding imminently, but it does give a level of confidence.
I don't get it.
1% approximately = 318,000.
Therefore 1,100,000 approximately = 3.45%, therefore a significant shareholder (possibly a substantial shareholder), therefore any increase or decrease through a single percentage should be notified.
If greater than 954,000 shares are owned, an increase or decrease of 318,000 or greater should be notified.
ReNeuron is (or at least was) in Patient Capital and Equity Income, with the largest proportion held in Patient Capital.
Patient Capital is still trading on the open market.
The top 10 holdings are as a % of the overall value of each fund, so whilst the funds may, combined, own a large % of ReNeuron, Reneuron is not a large % of the funds.
Woodford is currently in a loss position in this share (>50%?) - risks to the ReNeuron share price in terms of the Equity Income fund are that they sell more at this stage (unlikely) or they sell more on good news (likely).
The biggest risk, in my view, to the ReNeuron share price in terms of Patient Capital is that Woodford is removed from managing the fund, and the replacement doesn't like ReNeuron. But in my view, ReNeuron is a compelling proposition for a Patient Capital-type investment.
I don't see what they could do besides acknowledge that Woodford has a problem, after all it's Woodford's problem, not ReNeuron's. Woodford might make private investors steer clear for a while but it will only affect the share price, it doesn't affect the business. As it's not business performance affecting the share price, I don't think they need to be dragged into it.
Manifesto - The Woodford website has previously shown the % holdings in ReNeuron, however, it now says:
'During the period of the LF Woodford Equity Income Fund’s suspension and subsequent repositioning of its portfolio, we will only be showing the top 10 holdings of our three funds.
We firmly believe this is in the best interests of investors.'
Clearly they're applying it to WPCT as well as the three funds, so no way of knowing if they're transferring between the fund(s) and trust.
I see no reason to sell ReNeuron from the trust, but I do see benefits, for both Woodford and ReNeuron, to transferring from the equity fund to the trust.
Drax, with something like results of an on-going trial I doubt there's an obligation to release cohort results, and in any case they could probably get away with processing them at a suitable speed so they're ready to release on a particular date. I wouldn't be surprised if we receive a general update on the on-going stroke and RP trials - it's a good opportunity to do so.
What they can't do is release results at, for example, a conference, without first updating the market. And if there were, for example, a takeover offer, that would need to be released to the market without delay.
Manifesto, you could check for yourself before getting excitable, but it's pretty easy to do so I don't mind assisting with a few examples below:
Notification of Interim Results, Mon, 14th Nov 2016 07:00 -
For a webcast of the analyst presentation, please log on to the following web address approximately 10 minutes before 9.00am on the day of the results:
Preliminary Results, Thu, 29th Jun 2017 07:00 -
For a webcast of the analyst presentation, please log on to the following web address about 10 minutes before 9.00am:
Notification of Interim Results, Mon, 13th Nov 2017 11:30 -
For a webcast of the analyst presentation, please log on to the following web address approximately 10 minutes before 9.30am on the day of the results:
Notification of Preliminary Results, Wed, 4th Jul 2018 14:15 -
To access a webcast of the analyst presentation, please log on to the following web address approximately 10 minutes before 10.00am on the day of the results:
Notification of Interim Results, Tue, 20th Nov 2018 14:00 -
For a webcast of the analyst presentation, please log on to the following web address approximately 10 minutes before 9.30am on the day of the results:
The ideal solution, for me (besides no selling), would be for Woodford to sell ReNeuron from Equity Income and buy the same in Patient Capital. That could help limit losses for Patient Capital. Anyway, the science hasn't changed, so I'm comfortable, and I suspect the Woodford team are even more comfortable with regard to ReNeuron.