Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
A sleeping giant will be awoken …
Thx Adam
Sad part about this situ is Bangladesh economy lost 2 decades with the black gold underground …
GUN
Been quiet recently .. just reaffirming .. happy with my entry .. ground work in terms of research has been done .. my minds set.
Predicted a gradual rise back up to 10p. Prediction of NEDs between this and next Friday stands.
Happy to see consolidation and leg ups pre NED RNS. I would be predict we will see more of the same post NED RNS.
‘Til Valhalla
GUN
I’m not expecting much updates from Bangladesh press till post Ramadan at the earliest March 11-April 10.
Next major agenda item for GCM surely must be confirmation of NEDS. I’m working on the assumption the RNS drops in March.
BD gov will want to sort out the relocation payments and farming short term agreements before announcing imo. Minimise noise. Though there doesn’t appear to be much at the minute anyways.
GLA..
Allenby Capital managed the placing - so that’s interesting
Too much to unpack, highlights -
- creditors may stop supply of energy
- government can’t keep promises of funding to its sub divisions
- $4 billion outstanding bills
- issues get worse through April .. uncertainty ahead in short term
“According to the letter, there is a demand for Tk 4,000 crore for the month of March 2024. Out of this amount, Tk 1,500 crore is required to settle the dues of Adani Power (Jharkhand) Limited, while another Tk 1,500 crore is needed to clear outstanding bills of domestic coal-based power plants. Additionally, an emergency subsidy totaling Tk 3,000 crore is being sought.
State Minister for the Ministry of Power, Energy, and Mineral Resources Nasrul Hamid Bipu expressed, "We are facing a shortage of funds. We are actively working to resolve this crisis and are in communication with the Ministry of Finance and the Bangladesh Bank."
The senior secretary of the Power Division Habibur Rahman said "We have sent a demand note to the Finance Division for $400 million but we are getting $176 million per month.”
According to BPDB, about Tk 27,500 crores of outstanding bills of creditors have been submitted to the BPDB. Of these, Adani, India’s NTPC, Bangladesh China Friendship Company (BCPCL) are on the que. The private power plants (IPPs) of the private owners of the country have accumulated a lot of outstanding bills. Moreover, due to dollar crisis import of coal and LNG are getting difficult. Thus, production may hamper soon.
Relevant sources think, this crisis may condense in the coming days as the central bank could not supply adequate dollars even after repeated meeting. As a result, the import and supply of fuel oil, coal, LNG is moving towards uncertainty.
Demand-driven power generation and supply may fall into crisis in summer season. According to sources in the ministry, there is continuous pressure from the creditors to pay the bills. Some suppliers have also hinted that they may cut off supplies if bills are not paid regularly.
The power secretary said that the demand for electricity will become high till the middle of April. As a result, efforts are being made to produce and supply electricity as per the demand till October.
According to previous instruction of Prime Minister, the Power Division was supposed to get $1 billion every month but the finance division has not been disbursed according to schedules. Though, the Power Division needs $4 billion to pay the outstanding bills.”
Published: 07:45, 10 March 2024
https://www.dailymessenger.net/business/news/14844
I’ll check the SP when I see Hasina herself announce Phulbari. Till then, enjoy the back and forth.
Congrats to the traders that won, commiserations to those that lost.
My guess would be that we steady rise over the next few days. We will pip the 13p mark later this week and then a big build up again as the NEDs announce back end of march. Pandemonium ensues and we wait for the big one.
GLA.
As per my current understanding that was Pre solar power plant JV (2000mw) .. previously mentioned - was added into the offering
Yes & planned solar park up to 2,000 mw I believe
For arguments sake .. and any spectators ..
FYI - gas and coal are both key parts of Bangladesh’s energy mix.
Maitree super power plant (coal based) just finished build and commenced operations in May 2023. However…
“The country’s energy minister, Nasrul Hamid, forcefully defended the decision to build the plant. No one could have anticipated the many challenges that would befall the project, he said in an interview, including the rising price of coal on the global market, or the foreign currency crunch facing his country.
Whether it’s from coal or another fuel, he said, Bangladesh needs affordable, reliable electricity to grow its industries. “It can be energy from fossil fuels. Whatever it is, we need energy,” he said. “Every country has done that.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/18/climate/coal-electricity-bangladesh.html
That has not dulled the appetite for coal… the answer lies in domestic extraction…
SINGAPORE, Jan 3 (Reuters) - Bangladesh nearly tripled its coal-fired power output in 2023, a Reuters analysis of government data showed, helping it tide over the worst power shortages in over a decade and slash rising generation costs.
Coal rose to prominence in Bangladesh's power mix in 2023 at the expense of cleaner fuels, as the government struggled to pay for costly natural gas, furnace oil and diesel imports because of shrinking dollar reserves and a weakening currency.
company, both in terms of repairs
Power generation from coal surged to a record 21 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh) in 2023, up from the 7.9 billion kWh of electricity produced from coal in 2022, an analysis of daily operational reports by the Power Grid Company of Bangladesh (PGCB) showed.
"The share of coal is expected to increase further this year as a new unit is expected to get commissioned. Dependence on gas is expected to remain steady and use of liquid fuels will fall," a senior energy ministry official said.
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/bangladeshs-2023-coal-fired-power-output-tripled-easing-shortages-2024-01-03/
You can piece the jigsaw together .. because there are not that may viable / feasible / affordable and fast enough alternatives to domestic coal specifically … the Phulbari project which has already conducted a big load of the upfront pre operation work.
However we can not be certain until Bangladesh government come forth with these words… that is what we now wait for …
What a crazy few months. Back end of December/ early Jan I thought this was a gonner.
Stayed patient and took up a sizeable holding during the 2p stage.
Earned some stripes so far in 2024. Can’t imagine what the LTHs must be feeling. All going well it’ll be a grand AGM 2025.
GLA
Safe to the say … the pennys dropped.
Smashing work searcher. Your tireless efforts are appreciated by more than you can ever know my friend.
Regards,
GUN
Imo - I think the need to import 9000mw of energy will be expensive .. it also demonstrates the need for a change in strategy such as .. domestic coal extraction .. and thats whilst Baku (Bangladesh’s only operational coal mine) is still operational.
Question - what will the energy shortage equate too if (as articles have stated) Baku coal mine is non operational in 2027?
YKIR - I agree, been wondering this myself, the make-up of the NED/NEC will be very interesting. It may also hint towards an alignment with BD &/or Chinese government/large scale development projects.
Bangla need more operational coal extraction before Barapukuria dries up. ***
This makes sense now … Bangla need more operational coal extraction before Barapukuria fires up.
“Barapukuria coal mine — the only operational one in Bangladesh. He hopes his son will take over for him once he retires.
However, reserves are dwindling at the Barapukuria Coal Mining Company Limited and it is most likely to be shut down by 2027, leaving many local workers like Afjal to fend for their livelihoods. “
Source - https://www.tbsnews.net/features/panorama/bangladeshs-oldest-mine-runs-out-coal-its-miners-are-running-out-luck-657546?amp
July 2023
Hi Redeye - my apologies for the silly question - I can’t seen any RNS regarding CCM. Is there a historic one I am missing?
Did some sleuthing .. could “Clean Capital Management” refer to the Chinese Solar developer - http://www.asiacleancapital.com/ ? Or if you have any other information on CCM I’d appreciate a link.
Thanks Good luck all
Thanks Strangy. Really good news. As I say, for me it’ll be a good day when all 1GW is operational and monetised.
Plus I was pleased to hear they’re planning a 200MW BESS at the MeyGen site.
Don’t suppose there’s been any figures yet which relate to the forecasted/estimated economics these BESS will generate from selling back to the grid?
I’m in it for the long haul and appreciate this may be too early of a stage to have these exact numbers available. But would happily read through if anyone has them handy.
Thanks all, enjoying the discussion here 👍
Thanks for the reply Strangy. I’d vote to add you to the comms team any day. 🫡
If SAE read this blog. A update with a table of BESS projects / MW / developers / sites / dates / total capacity would be most helpful.
Regards,
GUNE
Re-reading the business update from December 5th - it mentions a total capacity of 1 GW of BESS Projects at Usk.
Can anyone check my RNS analysis + maths here?
1. First BESS Project = 230 MW + todays 120 MW expansion = 350 MW
2. Second BESS Project = talks underway with a developer … 249 MW .. more info from SAE on this would be good.
3. Third BESS Project = Grid Capacity of 349 MW has been secured. No mention of developer yet. Again I’ll be keeping an eye out for future updates from SAE on progress.
So Total at Usk = 350 MW + 249 MW + 349 MW = 958 MW
I’m at little confused by this excerpt -
“ Furthermore, the first BESS project has rights under agreements with SAE to expand from 230MW to 349MW. This brings the total potential capacity at USEP for BESS projects to over 1GW.”
My first thought is that the mentioned expansion of first BESS from 230 - 349 MW - is referencing the extension that just got planning permission today - as opposed to an additional 129 MW. OT, Strangy & MT would be keen to check if that’s your understanding.
Also I'm keen to hear an update on the 200 MW BESS at meygen.
That’s potentially 3 further BESS projects that are in the works on top of the progress made today regarding the 1. BESS 230 + 120 extension.
Which reads as 1.2 GW of BESS. That would be a fine day if all are concurrently operational and monetising energy transfer to the grid.
Https://marine.gov.scot/sites/default/files/eia_screening_report_redacted_redacted.pdf
FYI above is a link to “MeyGen Tidal Array - EIA Screening Report”