Member Info for gregthegrinch

I know this won't be popular but I thought the RNS was perfectly acceptable.

Was is perfect...that depends on what you want from it?

It confirmed what I assumed. Big picture intact and some delays.

I also think too much focus on the negatives.....there are some positives in there if you look.

Also, IMHO no chance of a buyout <$250m

IMHO, this is when the real money gets made, contrarian investing separates the wheat from the chaff, anyone can sit on a share that goes up in a straight line.

GLA

I made a small nibble today........... at a great price.... a gift from the market.

I won't be the only one taking shares from weak hands.

GLA

I think part of the problem is investors like to understand exactly how a company works - ENET are cutting edge tech and everything that goes with it. Is it ENET's job to educate investors about this?

Do you really think changing specs as you go along is something odd?

Look at the big picture, they are in talks about what will get manufactured ... good sign?

Regardless, I reckon the selling will dry up soon.

GLA

@u

It has left you and some others scratching your head...not everyone.

GLA

too many caveats = no point

I need some food... bye.

uhlf.... not you in particular... so do not take it personally.

There are still unknowns, so the update was never going to be very detailed or it would have been x5 longer to explain all the caveats.

The thing is I am not sitting here in a bad mood or gloating... I'm feeling very relaxed.

ENET management have a lot of skin in the game.... they will be doing their best to get this moving ASAP.

Take care

OT - some good rugby this weekend. Kurt Zouma and West Ham/Moyes..... tut tut.

GLA

I suspect the figures given are conservative... they do state upside.

GLA :o)

Well, some insisted on this update.... Happy? Who got it right and who got it wrong?

If you did your homework then you would have known the general content in advance.

Also considering the general market backdrop there would be some selling.

This confirms what the sensible posters have claimed..... some delays but essentially all on track when considering the big picture.

Component shortages are going to ease, Tarana will ramp up, CV will fade, etc

Not selling, sitting and waiting... I'll be buying more at these levels... I won't be the only one.

IMHO Still the best r/r on AIM

Must dash.

GLA

Hey, were adults so it's okay to agree to disagree.

Maybe I make my posts too short because I assume people will fill in the gaps.

My thinking is to see this from the perspective of ENET management. Considering they might have been thinking this in the summer with a possibility of worse second wave. I suspect they contacted their customers and asked them how many units did they think they will be ordering in 2022. I suspect the reply was 'we don't really know, there's a really large range depending on things outside our control, so anywhere between X and Y, sorry that it is a massive difference and not too much help'. So what do ENET do?

Realistically they have to buy enough components for Y, with some caveats, because if they get caught short on components when they could have bought them, it would be seen as an own goal.

I suspect the difference between X and Y is so big that it is bordering on pointless to convey this forecast to the market, especially so if they think clarity is round the corner.

My guess is they have bought enough components for Y, but there is a very good chance that depending on potential delays outside of their control some of the sales could get deferred into 2023 - that is why I refer to sales going over into two years.

You are adamant that there is a direct correlation between an ability to make a reasonably accurate sales forecast, for which they can be held accountable against, and an ability to buy components. I disagree - it is quite easy to make a few phone calls and workout the maximum number of components you might need - it is a lot harder to know how many components will end up as finished products in the hands of paying customers.

Hopefully, I have explained why I don't think there is a direct correlation.

GLA

RE: 'Or to sum it up it’s simply not a credible position to tell investors that they will meet their growth plans for 2022 without stating what they are! Then to rub salt in the wound, order sufficient components for 2022 , showing they can clearly forecast, yet tell us squat.'

Can you imagine a scenario where they bought the components yet still won't be able to forecast?

Maybe they bought the components so they can deliver over a period of two years to a customer who in turn cannot predict things neatly into a financial year? etc

Hmmm.... I am starting to wonder if you have an interest in keeping the price down.

From the same site
https://www.rcrwireless.com/20220201/5g/indian-government-confirms-5g-auction-2022
Hmm... some interesting inferences... Reliance Jio Infocomm..... I wonder. :o)

Maybe they are waiting for some clarity from Tarana? Or any of the others?

My best guess is they have had some guidance from Tarana et al, but with the warning that the situation is very unpredictable and they will update when possible.

Therefore, why not wait until there is more clarity?

A lot of investors are too lazy to identify the cause of any problems?

I must dash...busy.

Take care all.

CV has us in the most unpredictable times since WW2.... you want them to make predictions, which they obviously think are virtually impossible given CV, and then make them accountable for events outside of their control.

e.g. I know Tarana experienced delays building their remote nodes - I don't know if that is the reason for the shift in expected $, could be a number of reasons. At some point in the not too distant future, the Tarana sales will come in, I reckon lower than some of the optimistic forecasts, but it will still be on it's own be worth a min of x2 the current SP.

I'm repeating myself so .... GLALTH :o)

'It does , however, make me wonder how a company struggled to forecast the year end with literally days to go can confidently proclaim they’ve ordered all the bits for 2022. That is some turn around.'

.... maybe you need to do some more thinking?

@u

On the grounds ENET apparently sometimes read these boards - maybe create a new thread 'My Ideal ENET IR Strategy'

Give a very detailed list of what you would ideally like done - and maybe what you would be happy with.
That post will be at the top and visible. People can chip in with ideas.

Even if a new IR strategy is not IMHO not that important right now, I concede that moving forward out of the pandemic and into more orders that they should consider it if it makes some investors more comfortable.

Capt Hindsight appears to be knowledgeable but in fact he is learning the on-the-fly and quite clearly does not have a background in the technology. Complete BS'er. Does anyone remember the conversation on ADVFN about spectrum and the number of mast units sharing that specific spectrum? I did actually check with Tarana, you only add one extra layer and it is in a different spectrum and is only max 2 per quadrant. So he was talking nonsense - I couldn't be bothered talking to Capt Hindsight about this any further because it is like talking to a braying donkey. He also doesn't seem to get how ENET own IP in the Tarana system - someone asked and he kludged the answer. The real world number of connections per unit? etc.....he got it all wrong. What he has done is done a reasonable job of memorising most the ENET website - that's it.

My thoughts are that Captain Hindsight is now a drag on the price.
BS'ers like that are a red flag to some new investors.

Hi

No, what I am suggesting is people should sell if they don't have any confidence in the management and the story coming good. The fact that I have 100% faith in the management does not mean that I think there is zero risk. I have done a lot of research very happy to take on the risk reward.

Broker notes: in my experience these are often works of fiction and following them is an easy way to lose money. Of course there are exceptions. But, when the company has to stump up to get them written there will always be the question of impartiality.

Having said that, and reflecting on what I said overnight, I personally wouldn't change the IR strategy.

The problem is we are in the middle/end of a pandemic, so if we did have quarterly statements about what orders actually came in or not, then any delay would spook some people into selling. As far as I'm concerned we already have sellers that have bottled it based on delays that are nothing to do with ENET - yet still want to hold them accountable. I think some sellers are caught in a pre-pandemic mindset and have not adjusted their risk reward analysis accordingly. So why update when you know some investors will sell/gripe for arguably no good reason? Personall I don't think DL is too bothered about where the SP is right now - why should he - it is all about where the SP is in the next couple of years.

Ultimately, if I was DL I would be focused on the investors that have the most trust - those investors don't need the constant updates - they believe the story and they're going to wait it out - so why do a lot more IR? Therefore, more IR possibly not particularly high on DL's to-do list when his focus is on making cash?

Hey, I'm just one person. It seems opinions on the matter are equally divided. Certainly not against any of the suggestions.
If there were updates and more people sold, or for that matter bought, then great. But, ultimately it makes no difference because I'm holding for a number years and the only thing that is going to get the price up are the hard facts of breakeven followed by fat profits.

I am confident that will happen.

I think there may also be an element of what people are used to. Personally, my last x10 bagger was achieved with a company that had an IR strategy that makes ENET'S feel like an hourly bulletin. Other companies are more active, so I do understand why some people would like a more structured approach.

What is actually missing? Slide 8/10 is a forecast? And the RNS updates have included revenue forecasts/updates. And some people have made ENET accountable?

Having said all this... people are different... I am not against the idea of more IR if it makes others happy.

GLA - I really must dash.

How many people have actually absorbed the full ENET website, including everything on this page (inc the slides) https://ethernitynet.com/investors/ and read all of all the RNSs?

I know this won't be popular but from my experience I dont think many if any read and absorbed the lot? e.g. did anyone flag the hint of the placing?

If I was running ENET I am not sure I would do anything different.

The forecasts are there....Slide 8/12?......we HAVE to wait until those contracts come in. They will start to come in soon. We are in a pandemic with all sorts of problems, e.g. component shortages, delays, people getting ill with CV, etc but some people are acting like we are not in a global pandemic. The blame is not at ENET'S feet. These things are outside their control. I'll reserve any critisim until I can stick something on them. I have total trust.

Do people want a weekly update saying 'still waiting...CV related problems'? When big news hits they will release it.

The pandemic will pass, the delays will pass, the contracts will come in, etc.

If you don't think the same then you should be selling. I'm not selling a single share.

GLA and apologies if peeps don't agree. Hopefully we can agree to disagree.

I'm busy so won't be posting much but will check the boards.

Take care all :o)