We would love to hear your thoughts about our site and services, please take our survey here.
We dont know the cost per unit but it could be as high as £5, with a 90p profit margin.
On 250,000 tests a week thats £225k gross profit per week. £11.7m GP fy.
Nice, considering last year they made a loss.
I do agree that the tweets are confusing...the humour is playful but we need hard facts at thus time. They ars messing with peoples investments which I dont think is that helpful.
They cant share details that would give bidders and the market anything of that nature. We will only find out tge winning bid and then vote.
Is it me or does the lack of 8.3's tell us anything about the FSP process? Are we about to put pen to paper? I suspect like many the BOD want this completed by year end. So, there is plenty of potential for something coming our way by early June.
My wife thinks I am delusional, and it will never come off....! (that's all my portfolio by the way!).
I do hope that Phil Taylor is correct and this will be a huge deal...bigger than anything seen recently.
All the best
Greggs
Thanks to Bamps on GGP who said "I've come across this post by Never2L8 one of the bests I've read for a long time"
1876: "The Americans have need of the telephone, but we do not. We have plenty of messenger boys." — William Preece, British Post Office.
1876: "This 'telephone' has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication." — William Orton, President of Western Union.
1889: “Fooling around with alternating current (AC) is just a waste of time. Nobody will use it, ever.” — Thomas Edison
1903: “The horse is here to stay but the automobile is only a novelty – a fad.” — President of the Michigan Savings Bank advising Henry Ford’s lawyer, Horace Rackham, not to invest in the Ford Motor Company.
Early predictions were that Henry Ford's horseless carriage was simply a "fad". (Image source: T.... [+]
1921: “The wireless music box has no imaginable commercial value. Who would pay for a message sent to no one in particular?”
1946: "Television won't be able to hold on to any market it captures after the first six months. People will soon get tired of staring at a plywood box every night." — Darryl Zanuck, 20th Century Fox.
1955: "Nuclear powered vacuum cleaners will probably be a reality within 10 years." — Alex Lewyt, President of the Lewyt Vacuum Cleaner Company.
1959: "Before man reaches the moon, your mail will be delivered within hours from New York to Australia by guided missiles. We stand on the threshold of rocket mail." — Arthur Summerfield, U.S. Postmaster General.
1961: "There is practically no chance communications space satellites will be used to provide better telephone, telegraph, television or radio service inside the United States." — T.A.M. Craven, Federal Communications Commission (FCC) commissioner.
1966: "Remote shopping, while entirely feasible, will flop.” — Time Magazine.
1981: “Cellular phones will absolutely not replace local wire systems.” — Marty Cooper, inventor.
1995: "I predict the Internet will soon go spectacularly supernova and in 1996 catastrophically collapse." — Robert Metcalfe, founder of 3Com.
2005: "There's just not that many videos I want to watch." — Steve Chen, CTO and co-founder of YouTube expressing concerns about his company’s long term viability.
2006: "Everyone's always asking me when Apple will come out with a cell phone. My answer is, 'Probably never.'" — David Pogue, The New York Times.
2007: “There’s no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share.” — Steve Ballmer, Microsoft CEO.
....and there is not enough global capacity to fill the demand. All our capacity will be taken and we are stockpiling now.
You are forgetting that its not just the track and trace contacts that are getting tested with LFT's...think of all the businesses, schools, NHS and care home staff twice weekly. Now people are testing themselves at home 2 x weekly.
Given ODX are planning on providing only 12.5% of their capacity on the govt tests I really don't see this as a problem. The big win is the launch of the Visitect 10m test which is set to be sold across the uk and world and at a higher margin....
I think the market is assuming that the 2m capacity per week will be for govt orders at £1.75p and 75p profit per test...
£1.5m profit per week x 52 = £78m
Mkt Cap £127m (70p per share) to £163m (90p per share) ....that gives c.2xPE multiple (currently less).
Once the company starts to show orders at a higher level (selling price and profit margin) I think the re-rate will be on.
Yes it is frustrating to be stuck in the 70p range but at some point the value has to show in the SP.
I am happy to wait it out...the Visitect 10 minute test is fast and accurate which is far better than the current innova test which takes 30 minutes. A game changer indeed!
Maybe the company should charge for storage of govt equipment up to and including the weekly profit from 250000 produced tests until they make their minds up.
I am sure Colin and the team are all over this, might not be relevant in a week or so...
Theres the 2m tests a week...40,000 x 7 x 7.
If we are 25% of that it's 500,000 of our capacity. Anyone else feel an announcement is coming very soon?
There are still lots of value creating news items to move the sp...
GL holders!
They are going to have shed loads of cash rolling in very soon....we should have a £500m mkt cap as a minimum, but could be £1bn in time...I am happy to wait for that value to come, and come it will.
Still cant believe we havehad x the chance to buy at 67p to 70p in the last week...a gift imo.
Its going to be an interesting few weeks...when will we be notified about orders? Very soon I think....
We have waited and waited patiently. Trusted the board to deliver. Believed in our investment.
Now its tims to reap the rewards, and bring in the bacon. I was astounded to be able to buy in at 67p this week. An absolute bargain in my mind. I am looking forward to selling some of them at £2-£5.
£1bn mkt cap incoming over the next year....
Yes, the commercial launch of the Visitect Antigen test should be a catalyst for sp growth. I assume that it will be out tomorrow or Tuesday. Tuesday makes more sense.....
Looks like we have a base of 67p and potential for up to £1.70....I have taken a low and high line from December 2020...
Any chartists out there with a more informed opinion?
Apologies - that was on the Merc board....
Scharnhorst 23rd March said: Who knows? It remains undervalued, there are more deals in the offing and the uptrend is established. I’ll continue to buy on dips.
Likely to be trading so just a watch out for all the genuine posters....
Thinkin - yes I agree that the timescales have moved in relation to govt orders and TT etc. However, the fundamental plan to get to 2m capacity is on track. That is not a total fiasco...in fact it is a great achievement. TT of Mologic Antigen is also a great achievement.
I am not sure what job/experience of the commercial world you have? In the real world, stuff happens. Timescales flex depending on geo/political/covid19 issues etc. You have to be flexible and react to a changing situation. The UK is going to open up in the next few months....at that point our capacity will be available to cope with the impending demand. I think this is later than we thought in Q3/Q4 2020.....
The directors sold LTIP shares before they got taxed so I understand why they sold. Many have new LTIP schemes which will support their full commitment to ODX.
I disagree with your comments entirely, but good luck to you in whatever strategy you have. I am holding for the value to come....
Yup, 17th May and 17th June are key dates in everyones calendar. That's why we are stockpiling....we know the demand is there.
1. Commercial launch.....imminent
2. Orders announced.....imminent...
3. DHSC contract confirmed...whenever they get their behinds into gear...but only 10% of our new 2m capacity.
Its all coming together...
I wonder if the company is now likely to gift Tamerlan a chunk of shares in EUA in order to finalise the deal?
Given the sign off of the EGM resolution.....this would make sense...
The govt contract is for 200,000 per week. 10% of our capacity....
I am not as bothered by the uk govt option. I agree that its the other 90% thats important...and will add the most value. Its a global marketplace...
We think that the likely profits from full utilisation of the 2m tests per week could deliver c.200m profit FY.
That is opposed to a broadly break even business H1 2020.
Even if we take half of the £200m profit (£100m) on a normal 5x pe.....then you get a £0.5bn mkt cap. Thats £2.74 per share. If you also include the value of Ely £0.60p for food doctor, new testing service etc.... We get well over £3 a share. Even if you half that again you get to £1.50.......
Those that want a quick profit be mindful that chasing rainbows doesn't always work.
Personally, I think that we will see £3-£5 per share once the orders start flowing and commercials are pulling through to results.
Yes, the waiting is frustrating. Yes, the communication is a bit sporadic. Yes, we all want the sp to move forward.....However, the fundamental 2m capacity is not in any doubt. The world is full of covid and there is not enough capacity globally to facilitate those testing needs. NCYT are upping their game and going for 1m per week.... We are pushing onto an open door.....looks like the tractor is about to pull over and let us by......the motorway roundabout is just a short distance away.
Hindsight is a wonderful thing. I wouldn't have bought some at 90p had I known it was going to 67p. But, it has given me the opportunity to buy even more. That's investing for you....gl all.