The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
I don’t think timescales are anything like that long personally…they can use existing records, just need to be done in an accredited lab as far as I can find out… (see below, last sentence the key bit, rest for context)
Laboratory developed tests (LDTs) are a subset of IVDs, created by a laboratory and then used on-site at that laboratory. They are not sold commercially as an IVD for other parties to use, but the laboratory that creates the LDT charges a fee for providing results. LDTs are also subject to the Clinical Laboratory Improvement Amendments of 1988 (CLIA), but that is a separate regulatory framework that does not limit FDA’s oversight. While CLIA does require quality standards for all laboratory testing to ensure the accuracy, reliability and timeliness of patient test results, it does not require that an LDT meet the same safety and efficacy requirements that come from FDA oversight. “As a result, an LDT created and used in a laboratory does not need data to support the validity of the test in clinical use”
Agree completely Brondby…
The OBD news is fantastic, but closer to home, aside from lung cancer, the underlying scientific principles with Ciz1B re fibrinogen offers scope for other cancers aswell.
A number of inflection points around Clinical trial start, China partnership, other markets, regulatory agreements, LFT progress etc… in the meantime…all bodes well…happy to see the slow burn here…
I think it’s each to their own, but anyone on a short term strategy are going to miss out significantly here imho…
Although we’ve seen a slight rise over the last couple of weeks, that’s consistent with the funding security from conduit.
Given the strength of comms from Biotechne ($bn companies don’t get into partnerships with minnows on a whim), the high throughput testing in lab giving sufficient confidence to proceed to clinical trials all appears to be going very well…
If we look at OBD, which was fantastic news medically (get yourselves checked folks when the PSE is readily available!)…they achieve 94% sensitivity - when used alongside the PSA test - not in isolation…and are currently sat 9x the CIZ mcap.
Hitting 90%+ here with a single test, and with scope to target other cancers, and before looking at being able to do it via LFT…the upside is huge…
Comments:
1) Questionable business model.
Seriously? In what way - looking forward to the reply on that one…
2) Huge options given to CEO. - why is that an issue, motivation to push the share price on - in his interest to actively drive the SP higher over next 16 months as life changing upside for him…
3) Lack of dividend despite the huge cash in bank
If you want a large dividend buy Vodafone - don’t see the point of any dividend personally, think cash could be better employed seeking inorganic growth opportunities, not sure why you’d want a larger dividend from a company in an immature growth phase.
4) History of missing expectations, missed spin offs, eg DiM.
Scraping barrel here…18 months in, what target has he missed? You’re referencing pre MK days…
Taking it as a bullish sign that you’re putting the effort in…have sufficient knowledge to show you’ve spent some time in understanding the business and financially literate to try and sow doubt… but not enough to suggest you know the business in great detail…
The other points re Ergomed selling at 28% above SP are immaterial…it’s down to perceived current value / future growth opportunity and financial metrics point to more material upside.
Just coming back to the main subject rather than Conduit…the more I read on Biotechne, the more it feels like this is going to be a far stronger tie-up…
In their recent investor presentation (see Biotechne investor relations), 81% of their business comes from consumables (proteins, immunoassays, antibodies, reagents aswell as the analytical instruments), suggests they’d provide one far more than just Jess…
On slide 16, they refer to “develop and manufacture of genetic and oncology diagnostic kits for research and clinical applications”, and in slide 90 refer to ExoDX Prostate test which looks like a full diagnostic kit rather than just components…so may become involved in the LFT side aswell…
Then just to cause trouble…their M&A activity is significant, a couple of acquisitions a year…they cite on slide 26 their key M&A drivers:
1. Identify fast growing and/or game changing technologies that can scale
2. Integrate acquisitions that fill product or technology gaps
3. Strengthen diagnostic and analytical capabilities that leverage our consumables portfolio (hence referencing it initially as it will pull through mAbs, reagents etc…)
4. Support continued expansion of footprint in Europe and Asia
What happens where Cizzle meet all their M&A criteria??
From Vela RNS this morning…useful confirmation re PUT option…
· On 20 April Vela entered into a put option for the potential sale of its economic interest in AZD1656 for a total consideration of £4.0 million. The option was granted by Conduit Pharmaceuticals Limited ("Conduit") and Murphy Canyon Acquisition Corp ('Murphy'), a company listed on NASDAQ. Should the option be exercised by Vela, the consideration that would be payable to Vela would be satisfied through the issuance of new shares in the combined company (now called Conduit Pharmaceuticals Inc.). Vela paid Conduit £400,000 as the premium for the option.
Also in September, Conduit completed its merger with Murphy and its shares listed on NASDAQ on 25 September 2023 as Conduit Pharmaceuticals Inc. ("Conduit Inc."). The put option, referred to above under 'key developments', is now exercisable. Accordingly, it is now open to Vela to exchange its £2.75 million economic interest in AZD1656 for £4 million worth of Conduit Inc. shares.
Worth responding on this one…
1. Agree that a more aggressive revenue growth would be preferable, but think that has been constrained by operational factors in the main. However, if they can see another 12% next FY, that would see them to c £62mn from organic growth.
2. More critically, EBITDA is pushing towards 20% through multiple efficiencies e.g. less agency staff
3. Depreciation/Amortisation typically £2-3m per annum.
4. That would give EBIT of c £9mn this FY.
5. Resulting PE at current share price is 15
6. Private Equity firm Permira deemed Ergomed sufficiently valuable to purchase at a PE of x45…
7. Would suggest Hvivo still significantly undervalued…
I don’t think £3mn extra impacts takeover relative to the 20 years of IP development and patents.
Prefer the quiet start…gets rid of those looking for quick intraday gains off a positive RNS.
This just takes away the risk of placings in the next 18-24 months (more beneficial in preventing dilution rather than discounted price issue), and can expedite their LFT development - as investors do their research, see the opportunity, hopefully see a nice gradual rise instead…
Https://investors.bio-techne.com/
Would highly recommend reading the investor day presentation…a lot of very relevant strings to their bow…from reagents/mAbs through to prostate cancer testing kits…
Exactly Jace…you don’t spend 20 years in developing a diagnostic test with high lab performance, and then progress to market launch if it’s not exhibiting at least the same efficacy in an automated high throughput platform…
Why do you think the product isn’t looking good? There’s nothing to back that up other than not liking timeframes of biotech.
- They secured £350k at 2.1p, only one quarter back, so the investor(s) are either frivolous with funds or have high confidence in direction of travel.
- AS has mentioned that things are progressing extremely well, and were seeking to accelerate progress.
- They have achieved necessary efficacy in lab but need to show that in clinical trials (with Corepath) and that will be necessary both to realise business value but also to achieve FDA approval - doesn’t happen overnight.
As mentioned before, comms aren’t great but prefer this over the P&D scenario of talking things up…there’s enough pieces of news though that can land to see significant upside from here in the coming weeks…
A lot of those 18’s are buys over the last couple of days - know a few who have added, myself included, and all shown as sells.
That said, clearly someone selling large chunks but paired with someone keen to take them at 18p - suspect it’s an ex exec member and it’s been agreed, but could be wrong…curious big clips being sold aligns to big buying.
On a broader note, Ergomed, although only going for a c 30% premium on closing SP, it had a resulting PE of c x45. Hvivo currently trading at c x15, so a lot of value to be realised yet…
Growing acquisition activity in this sector, so only a matter of time before Hvivo get sold.
They’re doing all the right things, true valuation will come through at some point…don’t think the exec are bothered, otherwise they’d be hitting various proactive / lse / mello Monday sessions etc… but that would just spike the SP.
Given order book, moving to more mature premises and scope to grow other revenue streams, JPMorgan close to TR1 level having been acquiring over recent weeks…feels like it’s moved to the next level…just not impacting the SP yet…
Thought I’d just take a look to see what the reaction was to CF stepping down…nothing 🤷
Not sure why, given noise in other lithium plays / other metals…but no interest at all in BHL…
I think the raise was inevitable - might be funded for 12 months, but if it was your business you wouldn’t run it down to the wire…you’d ensure you’ve got sufficient working capital for 18-24 month runway.
As mentioned before, being able to raise at c10% discount in this market shows some faith from investors…when you consider others in this space (Apta, fab etc…) have been doing so at 80% and then only securing 6 months of capital…
They couldn’t wait on MURF…while things look promising and now have near term timelines for IPO… all it takes is some wider market contagion (Country Garden, Evergrande possibly), and they may hold off till things settle… Ciz did the right thing in my view, if anything wish they’d gone further to expedite developments (as much as you can on this sector)
Personally…think it’s driven by three things:
1) Poorly worded communications - think they should have focussed on the fact they’ve been able to make the research platform a commercial grade version and articulated next steps better.
2) A very flat market so a lot taking their 10-15% off the back of news - see it across all shares.
3) Folk thinking they’re now waiting for next stage so move off - see it with other positive news releases e.g. OPTI.
My view is that the SP can move quickly and there’s enough positive news flow due…not worth the risk, but that’s just a personal take on it, some others will see it differently…