Ben Richardson, CEO at SulNOx, confident they can cost-effectively decarbonise commercial shipping. Watch the video here.
Just because the PSA test is unreliable, all blood tests are therefore unreliable? Seriously?
Improvements in early accurate testing is a huge positive, whether that is Cizzle or someone else advancing science to achieve it…
My dad has just been diagnosed with terminal prostrate cancer - had gone metastatic before being picked up - his PSA tests were always low - think it’s something like 1 in 7 where you don’t see elevated PSA scores.
I think given the state of the markets, would have expected a bit of profit taking…see where this settles, feels like it could be where it is now, before going again…but each time levels off at a higher base, so all looks promising.
With Muck… don’t see a need for placing given cash erosion of < £1mn in 6 months, and sat on £3mn+. Only risk I see is if demand is so great that cash is required to support more aggressive revenue growth and from a position of strength, so wouldn’t see that as a negative and they generally have strong support (and invest themselves) so don’t see any major concerns there personally. (was concerned 12 months ago but not so now).
You would also expect it to be a concurrent process…
1) Get FDA approval for LDT with Corepath
2) Behnke source 1-2 partners to serve rest of states
3) Work through FDA approval for local LDT testing (which clearly takes longer)
Suspect likelihood of 3 materialising will be linked to how long it takes to develop a lateral flow test…
The point of the LDT being developed with Corepath is that they are an accredited lab - it’s a quicker route to market working with one lab across multiple states than developing an LDT that would be used in multiple labs nationally which requires longer FDA approval.
The testing which is now starting with Corepath, will form part of the FDA submission in showing the results can mirror those achieved in a laboratory setting.
I think that’s all positive news…
1) Recent placing has enabled them to crank up the development programme at York Uni
2) Met all criteria to start clinical trial development, so results must be good.
3) They’ve previously had very strong metrics for sensitivity of the test, sounds like recent mAb developments have elevated that further, so have no doubts this is streets ahead of alternatives.
4) Still waiting on SOP being completed, but shouldn’t be far off given now working on clinical trial design.
5) First time they’ve mentioned Europe and UK regulators for test approval as far as I am aware.
…and currently £7m mcap…with c£1m in cash and £3+ mn in equity once MURF / Conduit IPO completes…
Answers / Opinions:
1) What’s the SP ?
Easy one this…top of the page ;-)
2) How much has it declined since the RTO ?
circa 80%…wide range of factors, sector went out of favour after covid, lot of cash taken off table due to wider geopolitical and economic uncertainty, lot of cash being spent 2+ years ago during covid.
Lot of others have faired worse… ABDX floated similar time, down > 90%, Trellus similar time, down over 90%. Not a good price, but personally think it’s an opportunity (can’t say same for most)
3) What money is coming in ?
Well…in terms of revenue generation none…it hasn’t launched yet, same as with a lot of biotechs…
However, they appear to have found it easy to raise funds…which suggests positive sentiment among investors. Placing was
Everyone’s entitled to their viewpoint, but what i don’t understand is if you don’t have any faith in the company product / mgmt and think they’re going nowhere, why wouldn’t you just sell up and move onto other companies you do have confidence in? 🤷
I’ll grant you it’s a slow burn and comms could be a lot better, but compared to most companies, they’re strongly incentivised to make it succeed.
Aside from the reasonably modest salaries (discussed previously), the options received in Nov 21 are only exercisable above 10p (60%+ of her shares, others don’t have the limitation).
At current price, Prof DC’s shares/options are worth c £200k, get the SP to 20p and they’re worth >£4.5mn… aside from the very significant human aspect of wanting this to succeed, there’s a pretty strong financial one aswell…
(Allan Syms in the same situation)
Tried to give a view below, won’t have covered everything…but hopefully helps…
- We know the ability to use an ELISA based test to measure CIZ1B is done, that was first shown in 2017 (Google April 2017 Clinical Biochemistry Dawn Coverley)
- We know it’s got 95%+ sensitivity (are other measures around PPV, NPV, specificity) but it blows competition out of the water.
- They believe the same principle applies to other protein fragments for other cancers, but currently WIP.
- We know they have been refining the test re mAbs, reagents etc… and narrative has been that it has been going extremely well (AS words).
- Next stage is to have a completed Standard Operating Protocol (Google it) for the Lab Developed Test and that would then enable the delivery of the LDT into local market.
- Corepath had mentioned previously that on track to validate/commercialise in 2023 (they need 6 months from receiving LDT for it to be in market)
- Presentations in March ‘23 have stated all going well (Stockbox, Sunday Roast)
- They were able to raise additional funds at pretty much market price last month which is a huge vote of confidence when you look at the level of discounting in other companies (Yourgene, APTA etc…).
- In the same RNS last month they reference now starting to develop a LFT for point of care which would suggest all proving positive in the LDT one.
- Also states “…continue to make excellent progress…” on its LDT.
- Given partnership model, current cash burn, Conduit PUT option (when it materialises) that cash isn’t an issue going forward.
- Also taking options instead of salary increase suggests a high level of confidence.
The only gripe I have is poor comms, but even then that would just lead to greater volatility…so happy to sit on my hands and wait for news…
Agree…if it is backed up by fact and isn’t repetition of previous postings…
It’s clearly not a lifestyle company (gets bandied around all the time), would agree comms should be better, but it appears all is going well if people read recent all the details in recent RNSs.
Prof DC hasn’t exactly benefitted financially to any great extent from this yet, 20 yrs of research has been done for the greater good, she only benefits to a significant degree by reaching the end goal here…
In the Stockbox interview (30th March) and the Sunday Roast interview (12th March) AS mentioned that the next key milestone is the delivering of the SOP (Standard Operating Protocol)
Soundbites…
- “from point of delivering a SOP with platform, reagents, everything ready to go….” to establish LDT ready for clinical testing in the US.
- “can’t start till we deliver the SOP…”
“We’ve got our automated platform ready to go…etc….
That was four months ago…
Linked to that, we know Corepath were looking at having the LDT ready in FY23, and from SOP to LDT available for clinical trials is c 6 months as per AS comments , which collectively would SOP can’t be far away (taking into account standard delays in the sector) and Cizzle were working on it 4 months+ back so can’t be far off…
Linked to the above, I got an email back from Tim Metcalfe a couple of weeks back, he mentioned they were conscious of the need to provide updates to shareholders, but needed to be material news. He also mentioned about the poor current small caps market sentiment which I thought was a curious thing to add, but I took it that they didn’t want to deliver minor news when there wasn’t the market buoyancy to support it.
(We are starting to see shoots of that changing in the last couple of weeks.)
I suspect, and could be wrong, that they’ll be mindful of recent spike in March, and that any news announced needs to sustain momentum. I’d therefore expect next news (other than wider stuff re partners, Conduit etc…) to be around delivery of the SOP rather than piecemeal RNSs around mAbs, reagents, assay optimisation etc….
Hoping when news lands, and doubt it’s far off, is that it’s substantial…
IMHO
Like for like will exclude disposals, for example VF Hungary would have been in last years figures.
You asked this last week and got answers…
My inference this time from your question is that you want to sow doubt in shareholders minds it’s a P&D after CH moved onto FAB…
This is just a waiting game imv…two options…
1) buy in after positive news and accept you miss the first X%,
2) Hold, accept it might drop a little but in at the point news drops…
(HE1 as an example this week)
Had confirmation this week all is going well with Ciz…just waiting for news to drop
Let’s be honest…no-one has a clue what the next few weeks will bring…
- shorters will talk it down for their own ends…
- those wanting in at a cheaper price point but see opportunity will talk it down in the near term
- those already invested will generally talk it up…
There could be news tomorrow that they’ve completed SOP and are shipping their LDT platform to the US/China, new agreements with NHS/EU/India etc…, but equally could be months away…
Only thing we know is that things seem to be going well and heading in the right direction, but speed of SP changing news is an unknown…
“The two most powerful warriors are patience and time” (Leo Tolstoy)
While the SP decline is disappointing, it’s off little volume and news is due…so pretty pragmatic about the current position…
It is only 3 months since the last interviews, but hoping a new update will happen in the next couple of weeks given feedback from Tim Metcalfe following the recent placement (thanks chuggs). It’s also nearly a year since Hardman did their last valuation so hoping we see news on that front (£23mn valuation last July vs £6mn current MC).
All recent soundbites from AS suggest things still progressing well…
“…single protein biomarker with the performance that we get from it”
“…honing the test to meet exactly the market demand…we’ve got our automated platform ready to go”
“All very positive from our side with a very clear path…”
…and the recent placing RNS referenced continued development of an LDT… so nothing to suggest anything isn’t going to plan…it’s just time…
Add to this the low salaries of the board, use of options and the understated nature of the exec - don’t create unnecessary rhetoric to push up the SP despite the contrary view of 1 or 2 here - suggests they think they’re onto something special…all bodes well imv…
Below gives a bit of insight on the SOP needed to ensure markets have the necessary information to start clinical testing.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_operating_procedure
Given this was flagged as being the key dependency 3+ months ago, would like to think we’re coming up to a news rich period…
Where do you start with this one…can’t go through all of your comment but a few counter arguments…
1. The company isn’t making any money , no product is even close to been on the market.
(A) Neither do a lot of biotechs, that’s kind of the nature of development…loads in this space at multiples of Cizzle’s current MC…don’t think your comment is relevant.
2. No one is buying , no company is interested, the china deal won’t go ahead as political BS will get in the way.
(A) Might, might not happen but Hutchison have just merged their Uk opp with Vodafone UK. I suspect China will do what’s best for them.
3. The US well that’s another story as usually they only ever support US drug products.
(A) Err… check the US revenues of AZ…$18bn…
4. and the NHS well they are getting involved with companies and trails now that will only get better as the money and the exposure the companies will get will help to fund their progress.
(A) Seriously? If the underlying technology of the product is flawed, chucking more money at it doesn’t make it better…question here is do you believe the science here…personally do, if you don’t, no point in sticking around, would be akin to buying Cine shares as it seems good value at 3p…
This is just an assessment of level of risk isn’t it (would have expected it to already be happening already tbh)
Do you smoke, have you smoked, job exposure to particles, family history etc… think you are high risk we’ll get you in the system…