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It is a major event for the company it should have an RNS to give dates and timelines if not then it is bad communication by the company and an own goal for the pr dept. They did it for the Thutse modules why would the copper modules be a secret?

When did they put out that they had started one? Don't you think that is massive news module ordered and an expected completion time?

What are you saying Gotreal? We can expect production from module one in Q3 this year then?

Hello,

Been away for a few days still awaiting news I see. Continual delays and failing to hit targets doesn't inspire confidence Shuvlin. It is understandable that it breeds some negativity. Even the modules are late should have been started in Q1 this year and we are already half way through quarter 2.

However next years expected production of pgms and chrome underpins the sp higher than where we are today and both processes are well established with potential growth in both. Copper is the icing on the cake.

Are you listening Ardbeggar?

Cmon Roan

Hello frogkid

Company that was 250th on my list (which is a few months older than yours) is 248th on your list now:)

On your list we are about 475th:)

No idea Mikie but 250th on 1st of Jan 2024 was $1.4 billion:)

Good morning all,

Hi Edzi,

I believe you were making the same points yesterday just misquoted it as Bereberg when you meant RBC capital.

Don't think finance will be an issue Mikie more production capacity and reliability of the modules, replacing parts etc. and what they can secure.

I don't know that side of the business so there maybe more options available to JLP to speed it up. I'm sure there will be someone on here who knows more. It's all exciting stuff though to see what they can actually do and how quickly they can scale it up.

Agree Mikie. Like you I expect it to increase as the year goes on as chrome is doing.

Hi Edzi,

Only hedging my bets with 12k. They will do well to hit 3k in the first 3 months next year but should catch up if they don't. Six months for a module from order to production so even if they started at the beginning of June it wouldn't be producing until dec.

I don't expect a huge amount out of the modules next financial year even if they did two at once as it won't be until the second half of the year until we get something out of them with them pretty much starting in the next month. Don't forget the reduced margin on these also.

I made the point earlier about reliable supply of these modules and Seisnav makes a similar point regarding these. Plenty of wriggle room in my 12k for things to not go as planned just look at Roan. Seisnav also points out about Munkoyo not ready until later in the year.

The miners supplying Sable could be good though to give it a boost.

With a fair wind if everything went right and they built two modules now then they could possible do as much as 20-25k but nothing ever goes perfect every time.

Just my take on it happy to be proved wrong.

Apologies chrome has taken 3 years to go from 750k to 1.5 million

Let's see what Roan does first guys and when the first IRH module comes on line far too much optimism for me:)

I will stick to my 12k copper for next year if they beat that I will be happy. After that who knows.

It would depend how fast they can roll the modules out Shuvlin. How reliable and consistent they can be made and supplied. Plus a sustained higher copper price. Lots of possibilities Congo further down the line maybe. So not impossible.

Chrome in 2 years has gone from 750k tonnes/yr to around 1.5 mill tonnes/yr at the end of this financial year so they do have form for scaling this kind of process.

Gotreal

4k a year copper to 100k a year in 18 months to 2 years is a big leap of faith. We have been waiting 6 months for an electronic component. Plus the gross margins will be different for the different processes. It's not a case of £15k/ton revenue. $6k costs. $9k/ton gross profit.

For example IRH modules 30% to JLP after costs. The artisan miners costs is around $6k/ton. Just because Goldman say $15k/ton copper doesn't mean it has happened (doesn't mean it won't either). We don't even know the margins on tailings.

How you can forecast that kind of production and profit now is beyond me way too many variables before we get anywhere near that.

We aren't even producing anything from modules yet so what the actual margin turns out to be we don't know. We aren't producing anywhere near nameplate capacity with any artisan mining product at Roan or Sable yet so what that actual margin will be we don't know.

That's why I don't think it will be worth £3.5 billion in 18months to 2 years.

Gotreal

Yes RBC.

My forecast was for next year anything after that it is really hard to say.

How long do you think it will take JLP to be a £3.5 billion company? Are you saying 18 months really?

Good morning everyone,

Hi Edzi,

What you have written all sounds very plausible to me so the berenberg angle you highlight could have legs.

You are spot on with the green credentials and cannot be underestimated. The big boys will take note of this.

JLP's operations are pretty much a "clean up as you go" which is extremely attractive not only to bigger companies but the governments and locals that have been affected. Get the Zambia operation running like the chrome operation and that will give JLP the financial ability to look at Congo and IRH may want to be involved in that.

Didn't know about Zimbabwe and any potential there so that is a new one for me.

And just for Ardbeggar

Cmon Roan:)

It would be a shame Shuvlin we would all like to see full value we have waited long enough. The bigger fish will circle though if JLP becomes more attractive. Edzi does make an interesting couple of points. I am not saying it will happen you just never know even chrome is looking tasty.

A bit of speculation whilst it is quiet and we wait for Roan.

Edzi,

You are moving at a tangent with some of these. My speculative opinion to answer your questions for what they are worth:)

Had a conversation with Mikie the other day I don't think they need Chambisi with the chinese being short on concentrate at the moment and the price they can get for it.

Energy costs would have to be a big consideration even if they got it cheap. I would imagine it may need money spending on it to bring it into operation. You never know with Leon though:)

I think they would need to get the valuation of the company higher than what it is now if they were going for a full listing but that shouldn't be a problem if copper does the business not hard to see sp double from here with what is expected to be produced next financial year.

As for a takeover who knows. If someone was though they would be better off getting in now whilst it is cheap. I think Leon wants to grow it into a billion dollar company which would be around your 30p a share predators maybe lurking then. Copper will be attractive to them.

Edzi,

Yes gone a bit quiet with Droslovka but Roan and the modules with IRH are taking preference it would seem. However it would be good to get improvements in the tailings processing.

Agree being conservative. I am always conservative and I would be disappointed if we don't hit $100 mill gross next year as a minimum.

The margin on chrome could be pivotal as well. I have it down as $30-$35/ton gross margin others have suggested it could be higher. I will be looking at the second half of this year chrome margin to see what it comes in at.

I agree with your numbers for next year Edzi. I have pgms and chrome on their own coming in at between $65 mill and $78 mill gross. Add in 12k of copper only at $3k gross margin and you have $100 mill gross profit minimum.

JLP have put everything in place just need to deliver on copper the other two are pretty much established and chrome still growing.

I agree Heroric the benefit of higher price of copper producing 1k tonnes per month is far better than 300 tonnes per month for JLP to take advantage of but that isn't how your original post came across stating producing no copper and that triggered some of the more robust responses to you.

Anyway just for Ardbeggar

Cmon Roan.