My thoughts 20-30p target19 Jun 2017 16:26
Parys Mountain--Overview
Well we are nearing the end of the start to get Pary's into production. The much heralded PFS will be an updated study prodduced by the company, Micon and Fairport based on the existing 78000m of drilling in JORC compliant resource statement of 2,114,000tn indicated and 4,114,000tn inferred metals in situ.
The last RNS states that the company is looking to evaluate mining scenarios up to 1000tpa which is the max allowed under the current planning permission with release by the end of June 2017.
So what does 1000TPA look like in reality?
When in full production at 350,000 tonnes per year the mine is expected to produce about 20,000 tonnes of zinc, 8,000 tonnes of copper and 7,000 tonnes of lead metal in concentrates each year.
In July 2007, Micon International produced a scoping study demonstrating the viability of mining the White Rock area at 500 tonnes per day with capital expenditures of UK pounds 15 million and operating costs of UK pounds 30.25 per tonne mined.
Costs whilst expected to be slightly higher than 2007 will not be much different but a loading of 20% would be prudent so say £36.50 per tn processing. Smelting c$190 per tn and bulk shipping to the smelter/port logistics $10 per tn.
I would expect the larger mine to be cost effective than the 500tpa facility but with the amjority of costs in the smelting best to leave the costs static.
What does that look like in cash revenues;
1000tpd--360,000 tpa.
Equals;
20,000 tn Zinc @ $2,494 ------------ $49,880,000
8,000 tn Copper @ $5,684------------ $45,472,000
7,000 tn lead @ $2,054-------------- $14,378,000
7,000 oz gold @ $1,250-------------- $8,750,000
100,000 oz silver @ $16------------- $16,000,000.
Total revenues--------------------- $134,480,000.
Minus processing mine costs
$46 per tn X 360,000-------------- ($16,560,000).
Minus Shipping/logistics
Concentrate@20%weight-ore
20%/360,000
72000tn @ 10$tn-------------------- ($7,200,000).
Smelting costs @ $200tn (metals)
35,000 X $200---------------------- ($7,000,000).
Total deductions------------------ ($30,760,000)
Revenues/all in costs---------------- $103,720,000
Per annum free cash from operations.
Yes that is a cool $103,720,000 per annum NP from operations per annum at Pary's.
All metal prices/shipping/smelting price units from June 2017.
Assumption in costs based on 2007 with a 20% uplift.
Micon forecast £15m to build a 500tpa plant,, so say 1000tpa will cost £30m. The company suggests the price to construct now will be less than 2007 and a plant twice the size would not require twice the capex but for this scenario we keep the capex at say $40m.
Pay back is clearly in year one subject to other overheads/salaries/plc costs etc.
This is one serious project with a mine life of at least ten years possibly much longer if further exploration is conducted.
Depreciate the mine cost at $4m per annum into the pr