back of the envelope. 24 Sep 2015 11:43
nice to see it rising. Lets presume the $174m cash is gone and lost forever. what's the company worth. let's take a quick look under the bonnet at the last accounts. EBITDA of $176m and free cash flow of $88m. with debt where it is here I am glued to the free cash flow, commonly referred to as ' the bank manger's profit'. as opposed to the accountant who thinks the company is making money even though it has no cash. So taking the $88m, surely the multiple has got to be at least 6 times this. I'm not forgetting that debt is aggressively being paid down.but I;d rather see that as safety net bonus. if we continue producing $88m a half thats $176m a year (bankers profit) x 6 times and we have $1,056m. or £681m. …… but for EV ( enterprise Value as many in this industry prefer.lets look …Ok we have annual profits of $350 and lets multiply that by 6 times earning $2.100m less the debt here $700 ( it seems because it was reduced ) $1,400m add on the cash $1,500m and convert to £. = £967m Market Cap, so it seems to me this company is surely worth much much more than the market is pricing in. No question there is a Q mark of the CEO for the moment and Ukraine itself, not to mention its Central Bank and its deposit guarantee fund that liquidate banks for fun. this company has completed its Capex spend in 2014 and the high grade pellets are a success. at these levels this is a strong buy in my book. GLA DYOR