RE: AIM is always leaky.14 Sep 2020 19:43
The rate of drugs successfully progressing to phase 2 from phase 1 is 65%, with these generally failing due to not working in humans, as predicted by the animal models, or being generally unsafe in humans. We have clearly passed this hurdle, as stage 1 is about safety, tolerability and optimum dosing.
The rate of successful progression to phase 3 from phase 2 is around 58%, which is why I’m so pathologically fixated on the results so far. Half Decent results (as phase 2 is all about efficacy) will get you to phase 3, but there will be clues in the performance at phase 2 that tell you how well your drug will perform at phase 3 and beyond. Better results at phase 2 will attract more attention from pharmas, obviously. Now, it’s not quite as simple as how well the drug is actually working, as lots of drugs( maybe up to half) fail a phase 2 and indeed even a phase 3 due to poor trial design, implementation or dosing regimes, or even paperwork or meeting deadlines or recruitment for trials.
So nothing to do with how effective the drug is, but scientists can be brilliant on the theory, but then useless at actually conducting a trial and carrying out all the other things to go with it. Just a bit of light reading and a bit of background into why I’m so fixated on our results so far. Now, Adam Hargreaves is much more aware of all aspects of this than me and all the possible benefits and pitfalls in trials progressing. He WILL have studied the results so far, along with all aspects of this trial and where it is likely to go with our compounds on offer, before putting his money down for this gamble last week (I’ve touched on some aspects in my previous posts, but not all). You have to bear in mind that a big proportion of drugs fail clinical trials overall for the above reasons, and I haven’t started talking about a stage 3 being successful yet, as that is about your drug being better than the standard treatment currently used. Clues for this will already be in your phase 2 data. So...weigh everything up and make your own decision. How did I do at explaining this without putting in my opinion at all? Lol!
Cobalt I think you’re right. The sp movement today just doesn’t have the feeling of that kind of news being imminent.
OB we got the 100g gold bars from Costco the other day, as I later found out. Really easy, like Valju says.
I like Valentine! Going to throw it into the ring to decide and see what we come out with tonight... may have to draw it out of a hat at this rate!