RE: Chrome1 Apr 2025 11:25
I wouldn't worry too much about us missing the copper rally. The commodity boom is only in the early stages but the supply chain is still suffering the hangover from the last commodity price collapse that began in mid-2014, especially in oil and gas, but also echoed across mining and other resource sectors. China’s slowing infrastructure boom and a flooded supply pipeline crushed metals prices. Think copper, nickel, iron ore — all hit hard. Juniors vanished, majors consolidated, and risk appetite dried up. The mantra shifted from “grow at all costs” to “return capital, reduce debt.” This created a kind of institutional PTSD and companies have been reluctant to reinvest aggressively even as prices have recovered. That environment has shaped the last decade. Even now, with prices rising, many producers are cautious, afraid to invest for fear of boom-bust before their capital can be multiplied, with it taking an average nowadays of 18 years to bring a new discovery into functioning mine production. https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/research/average-lead-time-almost-18-years-for-mines-started-in-2020-23 And ESG pressures make new project approvals even harder. So as demand increases there’s just not enough fresh supply waiting in the wings. That's where we are now and that’s what makes the setup for this next cycle potentially explosive and why JLP is so beautifully positioned now to capitalise on it. As I have said several times before here, it is SENTIMENT that drives share prices which is why I tend to get ratty with those who SPECULATE negatively, which, to me, seems a wholly irrational pastime if you are a genuine investor. If the FACTS are negative by all means discuss why and what might be the cause and resolution, but to simply vent anger at your unproven perception of events when with a small company like this, a sizeable proportion of the investor base is going to read your negativity and possibly have their sentiment toward it influenced, to me is madness.