RE: company thinks .30cent is the bottom for this hare now.9 Aug 2019 16:31
Yuri. Thanks for your thoughts. I really wish I had your capacity for optimism. Much as I would like to share it I can't and obviously the wider market doesn't either.
I initially thought the news of the acquisition was pretty positive and I suppose it still is to a degree, in that it shows the bod is looking ahead, which seems to indicate that they are convinced that Oilex has a future.
However, this really is a pretty small deal and very speculative at that. It has got a lot in common with Cambay as no well had yet been successful. They are obviously pinning hopes on the new technology identifying the way forward. Maybe, with it costing so little it will turn out to be a fantastic bargain. Who knows? Of course everything hinges on Oilex getting something substantial out of a Cambay settlement. Without that it's hard to see how they could possibly finance the drilling of a well next year and another the year after. I would imagine they are pinning their hopes on the suspension of the PELs being extended so that they can put the drilling on the back burner for a year or two.
So in the end it all comes back to Cambay. If nothing happens in the next month they will have to raise again, resulting in yet more dilution and so vacationfund I think a few more months will definitely hurt us, if we don't want to be diluted out of all prospects of ever getting our money back.
I think I would be bonkers to try to lower my average further. Like an idiot I did that in December doubling my holding at 0.285 to bring it down to 0.57. At that point I needed a 100% rise to break even and thought I had maybe a 50% chance of that. I would now give myself less than a 10% chance. Any further dilution will make things even more unlikely.
So Yuri, whatever I say I am sure you will continue to dream of 1,2,3, 5p and dividends. Atb.
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