Member Info for gordon1237

Hopefully, today's announcement will give the sp a little boost, or at least stop the rot. Gla.

I expect, I will be accused of being negative yet again, but I really don't mean it like that. It really is great that they have reached this point. However, it seems a bit surprising that they need to employ someone to do this, and that the process is only starting now. I thought Roland was supposed to have all these great contacts in the industry? I lnow they couldn't formally do anything until the refac was complted but you would have thought he would have been putting out feelers for months and a deal might be almost ready to go. I can remember saying once, that it would be great if the refrac results and a jv could be announced in quick succession and I think most of us expected something like that.
Anyway, we've waited so long, another month or two until we finally get that big pay day, wont kill us.

I can beat that LexyLou. Watching the grass grow. Lol.

Novumboy. What are you talking about?, The bit about the jv taking several months is a straight quotation from the rns. Not sure why I am part of any problem, having got quite useful info from Roland today. Gla.

Vf. Yes I got an answer, which clarified a lot of things and was reassuring. None of which alters the fact that it has been handled so badly and caused the sp to tank. Roland really needs to do an interview
BTW. Reaf the rns. The jv is certainly not just waiting fof a signature.
" The farm-out process is anticipated to take several months in order to identify a JV partner to assist in the full field development and monetisation of the c. 1 TCF of gas resources on the Cambay field."

Conger. That being the case, why on earth did they give the target of 2 mmscfd on thr first place?
Not really an excuse to say that it was the frackers target. They were the ones publishing it. Also, why on earth didn't they day something in the rns about expecting more from each zone in a new well?
It would be great if Roland were to do an upbeat Share talk interview. Might stop the sp from tanking. Atb.

That feels much more reassuring. Pity the market doesn't agree. Gla.

A further reply.
" Gordon, The 2 mmscfd target was set by the frac specialists without reference to the cumulative production from the well since 2014. The new fracs did achieve 0.5 mmscfd for a period before the fluid loading inhibited flow. It’s been impossible to get a true flow potential measurement while we had the fluid loading which was resolved by re-installing the production tubing.
There’s too much shareholder fixation on this one well in my opinion – the future of the Cambay field is in a full field development where we hope to achieve hundreds of millions of dollars in NPV .
Regards,
Roland. "

Have received the following reassuring reply from
Roland.
" Hi Gordon,
I think you’ve homed in on what most shareholders are missing in so far as future new horizontal wells will be drilled in virgin rock. C-77H is an old well which has already seen significant production. Extrapolation future production from new wells is not an exact science since we’re dealing with rocks of variable quality but we’re confident that a horizontal well of c, 1000m with multiple fracked zones will give us the required production rates. And fracking 2 zones compared to 20 zones has relatively low incremental cost.
Regards,
Roland "
I replied
" Thank you Roland. That is very reassuring. Perhaps the market reaction would have been more favourable if the rns had made that clear.
That being the case, it seems very odd that the target of 2 mmscfd and then 0.5 mmscfd were given in the first place, when from what you say, there was little chance of that being achieved.
How much gas has 77h produced? I thought the maximum was 1 mmscfd with fairly rapid decline?
Perhaps a clarification rns would ease the market jitters?
Best regards
Gordon "

Hope so VF. Let's see what the man says.

I have just sent the following to Roland.
" Good morning Roland,
Yesterday, the long awaited rns on flow rates was posted. Although the tone was upbeat, and indicated a successful refrac, it would seem the criteria of what constitutes success has shifted considerably. Judging by the sp reaction yesterday, the market also takes that view.
The target for a new well to be commercially successful has been consistently put at 4 mmscfd.
It was originally stated that in order for the above to be achieved the target for the two zones of the refrac was 2 mmscfd. Prior to removal of all of the frac fluid 0.5 mmscfd was achieved and it was strongly implied that the rate would improve after removal. That doesn't seem to be the case. We now have 0.15 mmscfd which is 70 % lower. Is this is expected to increase?
In our previous email exchange on 15th August you lowered the refrac tatget to 0.5 mmscfd.
"As mentioned before, if the stable gas flow rate from the two fracced zones is 0.5 mmscfd then the new wells are viable. And if the gas sales price continues to rise, then even lower rates are viable. New well with 8 fracced zones @ 0.5 mmscfd each = 4 mmscfd. "
At that point the refrac was producing 0.5 mmscfd from 2 zones which is half the above.
The current rate of 0.15 mmscfd is 7.5% of the original target.
You say the new wells will achieve the 4 mmscfd target if they have 12 to 24 zones. Well, the current 0.15 mmscfd for 2 zones is equivalent to only 0.9 mmscfd for 12 zones or 1.8 mmscfd for 24 zones. Still well off target. Or are you expecting more from virgin zones in a new well?
Also, presumably having 24 zones will make the wells much more expensive and less attractive to a jv?
All in all, it is hard not to be disappointed with the results. Investors waited a long time for this rns and were hoping for a big increase in sp after the continued drift down. Instead we had a further small drop.
I await your response with interest. "
Hopefully, he can put our (and the market's) minds at rest.
Hoping for some sort of rise today. Gla.

Lol.

Espen. I actually meant a modest recovery if there was no news. I was certainly hoping for a much bigger increase if there was news. Atb.

Fair enough. Let's hope potential jv's see it the same way.

Conger. That being the case, why on earth did they say the target for those 2 zones was 2 mmscfd? We are currently at 7.5% of that.

Conger. Yes, I know it's only 2 zones. However they originally said the new wells would have 8 to 10 zones and Roland reiterated this in our email exchange. Now they are saying they need 12 to 24 zones. Even 24 zones at the cutrent rate would only give 1.8 mmscfd. That would bring in about £400k per month which must presumably be profit making. It would also, I imagine make the wells more expensive. Hopefully, Roland will clarify.

Sorry herbie. How is optimised flow rate not the full flow? I will email Roland tomorrow when I have mulled it over a bit more. Hopefully, he will make it all add up.
Mind you it is puzzling that the flow rate is less after removing the fluid.

Just realised my earlier calculation where I said
" 12 zones would give 1.8 mmscfd and 24 zones 3.6 mmscfd" was wrong by a factor of 2.
The 0.15 mmscfd was for 2 zones so that is actually 0.9 mmscfd for 12 zones or 1.8 mmscfd for 24 zones.

VF. In my reply to you, I was merely pointing out that your calculation was incorrect and that we are currently nowhere near break even. That is factual and nothing to do with turning good news into bad. As for still holding, I stated my holding earlier. I am desperate for this to go up, so I can make a decent profit. Unfortunately, it looks like the market is unimpressed.
Yuri, it's easy to take the p*** but, to me, the numbers don't add up.

Nowhere near VF. Someone please correct me if there is a mistake in my approx calcs.
1 mmscfd is equivalent to approx 1040 MMbtu per day.
So the current 0.15 mmscfd is 156 MMbtu per day.
At $8 per MMbtu that's $1248 per day or about £1160 per day. That gives about £36k per month. No where near break even.