Member Info for gordon1237

problem as I see it is the constant drip drip of inconclusive news over the last few months. You can argue all you like that Roland is very positive that it is a success, plus talk of a jv etc and that would be correct, but plainly the market doesn't see it like that and I don't think it will until we get that final definitive flow rate.
I was really hoping that once production restarted and the sp peaked at around 0.30 that it would hold at say the mid 0 2's to give us a good platform for a decent rerate when news of a successful refrac dropped. Now it looks like we will reach that position at only around 0.15. So what will it peak at on good news day? Personally, I would now settle for doubling my money in the High 0.3's. Gla.

Hi Conger. Don't understand this bit from your post.
" The rest of the well and 73 is blocked off so all the extra that Gordon was suggesting adding to it was not."
What's this extra that I was suggesting adding to it?

I would say this is a holding rns. Not great but certainly not bad. It wont be great until Roland can demonstrate to potential jv's that they have a goof flow rate with a slow decline.

Hmmm. It noe looks likd it will be well into September before we get a definitive flow rate. Good that they are kicking off tbe farm out process although wouldn't think that will get too far without that flow rate.
The rapid build up if pressure after shut in is encoraging.
I find it disingenuous that they choose yet again to say 1 tcf field when the 2P resource ( proven and probable) is a still massive 206 bcf.
So the wait goes on. It sometimes feels I have spent half my life waiting for Oilex/syn. Gla.

Nothing wrong with being ambitious Jack. Personally, I think the initial jv agreement will be for the first couple of wells. Assuming that works well, they will take it from there.

That'll be Espen putting in his loose change. Only kidding. Lol.

Why would it affect the price of new wells? Can't remember where I saw it, but I believe the cost of a multi fracced horizontal well is not far off 10 million usd.

Very informative. Not how I imagined it. Thanks Espen.

Don't think so Elegance. If that was the case, he wouldn't be still saying the new wells needed 4 mmscfd for viable economics. As you say, all will be revealed.

Correction, those two things aren't equivalent. 0.5 for two zones is 2 mmscfd for 8 zones. Anyway, we'll find out soon.

Yes Jack, those two things are equivalent. What is not equivalent is the 2 mmscfd for the 2 zones that they previously said they were aiming for, and the 0.5 mmscfd they are actually getting. However, if Roland says 0.5 is viable we should take him at his word and hope the market does the same at some point.

Agreed VF. Just seems an odd change. Probably all be clear at some point. Atb.

Haddy. Dont blame you for that. I have doubted others when they have said they have been in contact with Roland. He hasn't told us anything price sensitive. Personally, I am still a little confused. Previously, they seemed to be saying that we needed 2 mmscfd from the refac to be equivalent to a viable 4 mmscfd grom a new well. Now it seems 0.5 mmscfd is enough. Hopefully, we'll know more soon. Overall I'm a little mire confident. Gla.

He replied.
" As mentioned before, if the stable gas flow rate from the two fracced zones is 0.5 mmscfd then the new wells are viable. And if the gas sales price continues to rise, then even lower rates are viable. New well with 8 fracced zones @ 0.5 mmscfd each = 4 mmscfd.
I truly do not know what the full potential of the two fracced zones is going to be until the frac fluid is flowed back and we have the production tubing re-installed.
My final reply.
“ Thanks for your help Roland. Sounds like you may be expecting an increase on the current 0.25 mmscfd per zone to 0.5 mmscfd oer zone. I appreciate to say any more would be jumping the gun and price sensitive. "

Agreed pysblore, but let's see what his next reply says.

One more try. Don't want to badger him too much.
" Thank you Roland. It sounds like you are not expecting to achieve the 2 mmscfd, so the concern is if the current rate of 0.5 mmscfd does not go up substantially the new wells will not be viable."

He has replied again already!
" Yes, the target was 2 mmscfd from the two new fracced zones and we have yet to achieve that."
Is it me or is it slightly worrying that he doesn't say " We expect to achieve that" ?

Received the following reply almost immediately which is impressive. Will know where to go to in future.
" Hello Gordon,
Apologies, I didn’t receive your previous email.
The flow rates seen from the two newly fracced (and isolated) zones on the C-77H well have been up to 0.5 mmscfd despite the presence of the frac fluid in the wellbore which inhibits gas flow. The frac fluid is still being flowed back and until it is removed, we wont have a definitive flow rate picture.
We need c. 4 mmscfd per day from the new wells planned to be drilled in 2023 to have good economics. New wells will have 8+ fracced zones so 0.5 mmscfd from 2 zones is on course. "
Great to hear him say it's on course. However, presumably to be on course for 4 mmscfd from 8 zones, you'd hope for at least 1 mmscfd from 2 zones. They previously said the refrac target was 2 mmscfd, but it sounds like 1 mmscfd may be enough.
I replied
" Thank you for your prompt reply Mr Wessel. I believe the company previously said the target from the two refac zones was 2 mmscfd, so I assume you are hoping for something near that when all the fluid is removed?"

This is what I said.
" Good morning Mr Wessel.
I attach below a copy of an email which I sent to the company email almost a week ago. In spite of my sending a reminder they seem to be ignoring my query.
I think the contents are self explanatory. One particularly puzzling thing, to the layman at least, is that the flow rate has not increased between 10% and 50% of the fluid removed.
I await your response with interest.
And my previous email.
" I am a long term holder of Oilex now Synergia Energy shares.
There has been much discussion on the lse bulletin board about the latest rns on the refrac operation. The consensus is one of confusion. On the face of it the flow rates seem low at 0.5 mmscfd, nowhere near the target of 2 mmscfd but the commentary is upbeat saying the new methodology seems successful but the decline rates need to be determined to be satisfactory.
Presumably the company is expecting a much improved rate once the remaining fluid is removed and the decline rate will be measured from there. This is by no means clear and probably has something to do with today's drop in the sp.
Perhaps a clarification rns might be in order?
Might not get a response, especially as another update may be imminent, but worth a try.

just forwarded my previous email, which the company has ignored for almost a week, direct to Roland's email.