The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
"Blanchard anticipates a “modest deficit” of around 40,000 to 60,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent by the end of 2025, but she foresees a much larger deficit of 768,000 tonnes by the end of 2030. This forecast aligns with the broader industry expectations of increasing demand for lithium, particularly driven by the growing EV market.
2024 unfolds with challenges for the lithium market, witnessing stock declines post 2023’s meteoric rise. Despite the setback, top players like Albemarle, SQM, and Li-FT Power strategically position themselves. As global trends hint at a Chinese lithium market decline, industry experts see a future lithium deficit, driven by the relentless growth in the EV market."
But it is not an overnight process and there will be regressions, such as lithium is proving now. This should be considered a new reset point for the market upon which to enjoy another likely period of boom growth.
And when Lithium almost certainly busts again the process starts once more, though once the market matures to a certain point, reset points will likely be less frequent and muted if not downward in gains.
William Adams, Fastmarkets’ commodity guru recently noted a simple but crucial point: Just as prices overshot to the upside in 2022, they will likely overshoot downwards while demand is curbed and manufacturers work through the existing oversupply.
Once the normal market dynamics then resume, prices are likely to rise – how quickly can’t be said for certain but if lithium feeds EVs and vice versa the recipe is there for exponential healthy growth.
The Western world’s focus needs to be on prising a competitive slice of the market share away from China before that happens.
The previous RNS suggested the firm was pushing ahead regardless... My understanding is shareholder approval is not required to agree funding - it has been widely discussed and agreed with shareholders for years.
MC Mining Accelerates Makhado Project Amidst Coal Sector Challenges
https://bnnbreaking.com/world/south-africa/mc-mining-accelerates-makhado-project-amidst-coal-sector-challenges/#:~:text=South%20Africa%2Dbased%20MC%20Mining,metaphorical%20'lump%20of%20coal'.
Cleantech Lithium Investor Bi-Weekly Webinar Begins Today.
A webinar with Executive Chairman, Steve Kesler and CEO, Aldo Boitano, will be held on Wednesday 24th January at 6:00pm (GMT) https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_q_-Vb3huTQetkmPHK9HFZA
Registration details can be found on the company website: https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/cleantech_lithium/news/xml_rns/story/xj7q1kx
Date & Time:
Jan 24, 2024 06:00 PM Europe/Jersey
Feb 7, 2024 06:00 PM Europe/Jersey
Feb 21, 2024 06:00 PM Europe/Jersey
Mar 6, 2024 06:00 PM Europe/Jersey
Mar 20, 2024 06:00 PM Europe/Jersey
Apr 3, 2024 06:00 PM Europe/Jersey
Apr 17, 2024 06:00 PM Europe/Jersey
May 1, 2024 06:00 PM Europe/Jersey
May 15, 2024 06:00 PM Europe/Jersey
May 29, 2024 06:00 PM Europe/Jersey
Https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-23/codelco-taps-global-debt-market-again-amid-copper-slump?embedded-checkout=true
"Chilean state-owned miner is offering 12- and 29-year notes"
I wonder whether this long-term capital funding by Codelco will be focused on Lithium as well as Copper projects in Chile...?
Https://www.mining.com/codelco-secures-first-own-lithium-asset-with-australian-firm-buy/
“With this purchase, Codelco moves forward with its mandate of becoming leaders in the production of critical minerals for the energy transition,” chairman Máximo Pacheco said in the statement.
Chile gave the copper giant a key role in the new public-private model for the sector, announced in April last year, which calls for public-private partnerships for future lithium projects.
Https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/markets/commodities/indian-steel-mills-urge-government-intervention-in-coking-coal-price-indexing/article67767768.ece
"Incidentally, India is the second largest producer of crude steel and continues to be amongst the largest importers of coking coal – a key feedstock material. Over the last few months, the price of coking coal moved up by 49 per cent from May to November last year. From $229 per tonne in May, prices increased to $342 per tonne. The highest increase was in October at $365 per tonne."
Https://www.miningweekly.com/article/chinas-drive-for-recrod-coal-spurs-yet-another-deadly-accident-2024-01-15
"Morgan Stanley said 12-million tons of capacity has been taken offline in Shanxi, the top coal producing province, since November. It said steady demand from the steel industry should support met coal prices in the first half of the year."
LAUNCESTON, Australia, Jan 8 (Reuters) - Asia's imports of seaborne thermal coal rose to a record high in December as top buyer China sucked up cargoes amid peak winter demand.
But the robust demand did little to move prices as Indonesia and Australia, the two largest shippers of the fuel used mainly to generate electricity, saw strong gains in exports.
Asia's imports of seaborne thermal coal reached 83.69 million metric tons in December, up from 78.87 million in November and the highest in records compiled by commodity analysts Kpler going back to January 2017.
Bear in mind $millions have already spent on early works at Makhado throughout 2023 which is extensively documented throughout the RNS library.
Example:
https://www.mcmining.co.za/all-categories?task=download.send&id=1763:makhado-project-significant-increases-in-mine-life-and-coal-reserves&catid=105
'Partnership is first step in President Gabriel Boric’s national strategy for battery metal'
https://www.ft.com/content/30d4cd96-f91c-4f91-9ba7-4996e51ad2b6
https://ir.sqm.com/English/news/news-details/2023/SQM-Announces-a-Memorandum-of-Understanding-with-CODELCO-/default.aspx
Macdaddy... Yet more unsubstantiated BS from you. You suspiciously joined this BB on the day of the consortium announcement and you have consistently posted scare tactics and lies.
A takeover requires 90% under ASX rules.
A scheme of arrangement requires 75% of the shares they are targeting, beyond the consortium holding.
This is not a foregone situation.
Read pages 40 to 47 of the actual submission documents - link below from the RNS.
https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02755259-6A1186937
This is not yet an offer, it is an amended indication to potentially offer. I expect plenty of negotiation in early 2024
Bear in mind this is only a revised indicative proposal... It is not an offer... Yet.
The last raise was at AUD 0.20 when the firm was producing negative cashflow. Now that the firm is producing positive cash flow - perhaps enough to cover the coupon on the debt package to build Makhado - I cannot see how the board can recommend this offer to shareholders .
I expect a much higher OFFER will be needed before the board recommends it to shareholders. For example, the Tennyson analyst report highlighted "the sum of the parts" is 21p (~AUD 0.40)...
Page 5:
chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://www.mcmining.co.za/all-categories?task=download.send&id=1773:tennyson-equity-research-reportl-mc-mining&catid=107
Lets hope other interested parties are watching and will also make an offer... I have no doubt Senosi wants to buy this cheap but I also expect he has a price in mind if someone else will pay the true market valuation for this unique asset.
The main point is the huge reserves of met coal at Makhado. Also, Uitkomst is producing met coal...
"Operations & sales Uitkomst produced 445,474t of run-of-mine (RoM) coal in the year to 30 June 2023 (FY2023), which resulted in sales of 230,181t of high-grade coal and 11,185t of middlings coal (a lowergrade, high-ash product), an implied combined yield of ~60%. The high-grade coal comprises peas (a sized product sold mainly to local traders for sale in the provincial market where it is used for energy or steam-unit production) and coal in the 0-40mm size range (sold as pulverised coal mainly into the South African metallurgical market). "
Read the Tennyson report, the business is generating enough (and increasing) positive cash flow to service a coupon on a potential debt package to potentially finance Makhado... Think about that. Why do you think the consortium is trying to buy the business on the cheap before the board agree a debt package that will transform the company and valuation.
Source:
https://www.mcmining.co.za/our-business/operations/uitkomst
https://www.mcmining.co.za/all-categories?task=download.send&id=1773:tennyson-equity-research-reportl-mc-mining&catid=107
'Western companies may be loathe to search for new sources of coal or build new mines, but investors say coal still has a powerful role to play in the coming years since it can be used to feed the needs of the global shift to cleaner energy. Demand for coal - driven by Asia - remains strong, lifting prices.
Coking coal is emerging as a top option for companies to make a foray into, as it is used to make steel, an important component in large infrastructure and renewable projects.'
Source:
https://www.miningweekly.com/article/glencore-coal-deal-shows-power-of-fossil-fuels---even-on-their-way-out-2023-11-15