Member Info for Gorblimey

SANDMAN, To be fair the various RNS all state 18 months build from the announcement of funding, so you are spot on if funding is secured soon…

Bear in mind $millions have already spent on early works at Makhado throughout 2023 which is extensively documented throughout the RNS library.

Example:

https://www.mcmining.co.za/all-categories?task=download.send&id=1763:makhado-project-significant-increases-in-mine-life-and-coal-reserves&catid=105

Https://bnnbreaking.com/world/south-africa/mc-mining-accelerates-makhado-project-amidst-coal-sector-challenges/

'Partnership is first step in President Gabriel Boric’s national strategy for battery metal'

https://www.ft.com/content/30d4cd96-f91c-4f91-9ba7-4996e51ad2b6

https://ir.sqm.com/English/news/news-details/2023/SQM-Announces-a-Memorandum-of-Understanding-with-CODELCO-/default.aspx

Macdaddy... Yet more unsubstantiated BS from you. You suspiciously joined this BB on the day of the consortium announcement and you have consistently posted scare tactics and lies.

A takeover requires 90% under ASX rules.

A scheme of arrangement requires 75% of the shares they are targeting, beyond the consortium holding.

This is not a foregone situation.

Read pages 40 to 47 of the actual submission documents - link below from the RNS.

https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02755259-6A1186937

This is not yet an offer, it is an amended indication to potentially offer. I expect plenty of negotiation in early 2024

Bear in mind this is only a revised indicative proposal... It is not an offer... Yet.

The last raise was at AUD 0.20 when the firm was producing negative cashflow. Now that the firm is producing positive cash flow - perhaps enough to cover the coupon on the debt package to build Makhado - I cannot see how the board can recommend this offer to shareholders .

I expect a much higher OFFER will be needed before the board recommends it to shareholders. For example, the Tennyson analyst report highlighted "the sum of the parts" is 21p (~AUD 0.40)...

Page 5:

chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://www.mcmining.co.za/all-categories?task=download.send&id=1773:tennyson-equity-research-reportl-mc-mining&catid=107

Lets hope other interested parties are watching and will also make an offer... I have no doubt Senosi wants to buy this cheap but I also expect he has a price in mind if someone else will pay the true market valuation for this unique asset.

Perhaps it is the reverse of what you think... For every seller of 500 there must a buyer... I wonder, who would want to tap the price lower...?

The main point is the huge reserves of met coal at Makhado. Also, Uitkomst is producing met coal...

"Operations & sales Uitkomst produced 445,474t of run-of-mine (RoM) coal in the year to 30 June 2023 (FY2023), which resulted in sales of 230,181t of high-grade coal and 11,185t of middlings coal (a lowergrade, high-ash product), an implied combined yield of ~60%. The high-grade coal comprises peas (a sized product sold mainly to local traders for sale in the provincial market where it is used for energy or steam-unit production) and coal in the 0-40mm size range (sold as pulverised coal mainly into the South African metallurgical market). "

Read the Tennyson report, the business is generating enough (and increasing) positive cash flow to service a coupon on a potential debt package to potentially finance Makhado... Think about that. Why do you think the consortium is trying to buy the business on the cheap before the board agree a debt package that will transform the company and valuation.

Source:

https://www.mcmining.co.za/our-business/operations/uitkomst

https://www.mcmining.co.za/all-categories?task=download.send&id=1773:tennyson-equity-research-reportl-mc-mining&catid=107

Https://www.forbes.com/sites/timtreadgold/2023/11/20/glencore-adds-tecks-mines-to-its-global-coal-business/?sh=6e22e2ca7663

'Western companies may be loathe to search for new sources of coal or build new mines, but investors say coal still has a powerful role to play in the coming years since it can be used to feed the needs of the global shift to cleaner energy. Demand for coal - driven by Asia - remains strong, lifting prices.

Coking coal is emerging as a top option for companies to make a foray into, as it is used to make steel, an important component in large infrastructure and renewable projects.'

Source:

https://www.miningweekly.com/article/glencore-coal-deal-shows-power-of-fossil-fuels---even-on-their-way-out-2023-11-15

If a stock can be borrowed, it can be shorted, simple.

'Australia has assured India of steady supplies of coking coal, two Indian government sources said on Friday, as domestic mills grapple with shortages of the key steelmaking raw material and a surge in prices.'

https://www.business-standard.com/industry/news/australia-assures-india-of-steady-coking-coal-supplies-amid-shortage-123111700507_1.html

"Global coking coal market is around 1.1 bnt and seaborne trade is around 305 mnt but the steel industry is reliant on a very narrow supply base which is the main cause of disruptions and volatility."

Source: https://www.coalmint.com/insights/growing-shortage-of-coking-coal-expected-from-early-2030s-experts-at-isa-summit-491997

"Unlike thermal coal, one of the most polluting fossil fuels which is being phased out over time, coking coal used to make steel will be needed long term to cater to demand from green energy infrastructure."

Https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/glencore-buy-majority-stake-teck-coal-assets-693-bln-2023-11-14/

Https://www.miningmx.com/top-story/54960-glencore-to-buy-teck-coking-coal-business-after-agreeing-6-9bn-deal/

Pocket money to a lot of companies too... Below is this years coking coal acquisition/demand news which illustrates the diverse range of acquisitive companies on the hunt for large coking coal resources/supply...

Whitehaven

https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/bhp-sells-queensland-coking-coal-mines-to-whitehaven-20231018-p5ed7z.html

ArcelorMittal

https://www.herald.co.zw/sa-steel-giant-expands-imports-from-hwange/

JSW Group

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/indl-goods/svs/metals-mining/jsw-group-exploring-possibilities-to-acquire-coking-coal-mines-in-offshore-markets-sources/articleshow/100567554.cms

Thungela

https://www.miningweekly.com/article/thungela-completes-buyout-of-majority-stake-in-aus-coal-mine-2023-08-29

Bathurst

https://www.nsenergybusiness.com/news/bathurst-resources-to-acquire-tenas-coking-coal-project-in-canada/

Glencore

https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/glencore-makes-offer-tecks-steelmaking-coal-business-2023-06-12/

Nippon Steel

https://www.mining.com/web/nippon-steel-could-buy-more-stakes-in-coking-coal-and-iron-ore-mines/

Coronado

https://www.afr.com/companies/mining/coronado-hunting-to-spend-coal-cash-on-m-and-a-20230525-p5db8g

Terracom

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/dataroom/terracom-weighs-bowen-purchase/news-story/1f0165471524b9c7ff1b7bb19886e05e

Food for thought... Hopefully, let the bidding war begin!

Https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/lithium-stocks-sell-off-broker-downgrade-based-price-outlook-below-marginal-cost-production

Macdaddy12, it appears you do not like your hearsay and foregone conclusionary comments being challenged with level-headed facts and debate of the current situation at hand. Do you also get upset when you’re told you can’t get you own way, or you’re not allowed to the pub because you haven’t done your chores.

I reiterate I am suspicious of your repeated ‘heads we lose, tails we lose’ commentary regarding us retail shareholders in this situation. I note you joined this site on the day the company received a letter of intention to make a takeover, 2nd Nov. Are you part of, or associated with the consortium? Repeatedly suggesting a takeover or delisting is a forgone conclusion is misleading and gives the consortium momentum.

I will also refrain from further debate with you. Let’s wait and see what the AGM brings, as I am doubtful of any further official direction before then. In the meantime, here are some useful resources (FACTS) for you to enjoy regarding the possible outcomes…

https://content.allens.com.au/the-allens-handbook-on-takeovers-in-australia/takeover-bids/

https://www.dentons.com/en/pdf-pages/-/media/817e13fe2a364f4fbe7b869517237f8a.ashx

https://takeovers.gov.au/resources/key-concepts/summary-takeover-provisions

GLA & DYOR