Member Info for goooba769

Ichi that's exactly my thoughts and I think they are spot on. Why rush into production when you are receiving >$500k a month and giving away your hand early will make it harder to negotiate a better % of the asset and terms on the licence. Wouldn't surprise me if the CPR is delayed further into June as you need to secure a larger % of the asset and better licence terms before showing CPR and flow rates.

Certainly one option but I suspect its never that straightforward.

I think there will be a licence renewal + debt written down for AAOG having 75/80% of the asset. This may lead to a farm out to a bigger player for a free ride.

There was a lot of ramping going up to the raise but that's my take on it don't expect everyone to agree. I think the asset has huge potential with lots of potential news for rerate.

Lots of different ideas on reserve numbers so it could well be company making especially if Djoan produces towards 5000bpd. Id love to see the report come back suggesting we produce from that zone and with some topside updates we go for it.

Is there already a CPR in place for the field and if so anyone got a link?

With fields in the area suggesting large discoveries from the Djeno it will be interesting to see what numbers come up from our discovery. Got a sneaky feeling there could well be some impressive increases in reserves.
Should see increased interest in the asset and production come on line in the next few weeks and then this company becomes a very different animal.

Wonder if we can secure funding without dilution to drill wells into the Djeno region. Just imagine two wells producing ~6000bpd from Djeno that's around $131m revenue. Even after taking out costs/share etc you would likely be ~£30m profit which would service any debt.
Sefton seems to be the weak link in all this as his ramping of the SP for the placing has left a nasty taste in peoples mouth. Hopefully with thinks looking to give him a stronger hand he wont shaft the shareholders.

Lol I was thinking the same. Great result for company and shows the potential.

Still drip selling into the market I don't think the big holders have finished. Thought it might have been this week but I think we have another 2 weeks of drip sells.

Waiting game for the sells to dry up and then hopefully the company will have some positive news about existing and new customers.

MC of company is ~£15m so to raise £10-20m they would have to offer a discount which would mean at least doubling the amount of shares in issue. I find this hard to believe at this point but this is AIM.

PMSL you lot need to lighten up a bit................

20p surely :-)

Agree Johnny but there will be some short sighted investors who will likely sell. Still in production so money is still coming in.

Top up for me if this drops as its all about the development of the recent asset which was funded by institutions with no dilution.

on no real news top up at 0.575 thank you very much

Jessell I'm purely stating that the current situation makes this interesting at the current SP. Obviously people who have been in this longer have not seen the benefit but AIM is littered with companies who promise the world and don't deliver. I've been shafted on shares over the last year in a challenging market so feel the pain of being a longer term holder.
Hopefully all will be rewarded over the coming months.

to see institutional investers getting in on this company. To be honest getting a deal like that for an AIM company in this market is a massive win in my eyes. Short term punters wont be interested as it doesnt give them a quick 10% but for those looking at the next few months this should build up nicely.
With the directors putting skin in the game as well speaks volumes.

Looks like an early stage SOU rerate to me and I could see this multiples in the short term.

You have just described 99% of AIM shares there I hope you are warning everyone on all those shares as well.

I also didn't state they had no debt I said minimal debt.

Looks to me like you have been stung in the past and the blinkers have come on. If you play AIM based on that mentality you'll struggle to find many AIM shares to gamble your money on!

Been in and/out of this over the years and in that time Arsenal you have been the one constant throughout it all. The amount of time/effort you must have put into this share/board over this time is worrying. Surely for a company you hate so much why on earth would you keep wasting so much time on here.
Anyhow back to the company in question! So I think its fairly obvious the company has spent 10's of millions of pounds over the years to get some land through the numerous legal hoops to finally get un-appealable planning. The key bit is that they have done this so as with anywhere on the planet a piece of land with planning permission is worth significantly more than without it. So at this point in time I think you have to look at the situation logically and decide on the risk:-
Pros:-
-Un-appealable planning
-Significant cash spent to get this to that point
-Value would be at least the MC of the company at ~£7m
-Directors taking pay in shares - Not sure they have ever done this so I suspect the end game is in sight
-minimal debt
-costs cut
-Interested parties

Cons:-
-Same directors bleeding the company
-Dilution needed to keep lights on but nothing too large
-Board balls the deal up or set themselves up and shaft the share holders

From my point of view I think in the past this was good for trading but at the current SP/timing I think the down side is limited and the upside multiples. As ever its difficult to put a price on the asset but with 10's millions spent on the application process makes you think its worth >£7m.

Basically its an invest and waiting game with this one but it could do 100/200% in a flash depending on the deal.

This is certainly a nail biter and I'm 50/50 as it stands. Lots of positives and negatives but with us hitting oil already the risk I feel is low. If we don't find anything further down then Ill buy on the drop as the production from higher up should mean a cash positive company.

Enjoy the ride all and don't over expose yourself just in case.

Unfortunatly in such a fickle market of late it doesn't mater what mengo/101 flow later down the line(that will shift the SP but not after its been hammered if the bottom doesn't come int) as all people are interested in short term is the bottom of the well. Everything else will be forgotten in a second.

Following a similar trend to that back in 2016. Rampy news and Raise of money is all part of the game. 88E is at ~£70m and doesn't have any production!

Suspect there will be more news in next few weeks to further move this up and keep the interest but the game changer is all at the bottom. If it comes in then >£100m MC and if it doesn't ~£10m. Simple as that really.

PMSL

I think when you look back at the general market and the finances of the company it makes sense to do some dilution now. If dilution had been tied before now I think they would be lucky to get it away for 5p so hes decided to talk the SP up to ~16p and then 10p would look like a good buy in for investors.
Its also worth remembering that if he had waited until the final drill and there was nothing further down then the SP would have crashed back to ~7p or lower and dilution at this point would mean an SP going to <3p. It makes perfect sense to derisk and dilute at this price.

At least we have a line under it at ~10p and we can move forward. We should get a very nice revenue stream from the first few targets and if we find oil further down we could be looking at a MC >£100m.