Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Initital spike as expected and then as you say the investors will start to buy in. This is big news and company transforming. Can see this building back up to ~18p short term before we see a big push into new highs when new partners come in or we get taken out.
Noeasy good summary. I think this could be a few hundred million major in the making. Once we have the final sign off it would surprise me in the least to see a big partner come in or a possible takeover happen. When you consider all the money/time/effort its taken to get to this stage a cheeky £100m offer for example would secure access to power hungry nation with massive demand in years to come. Can really see this taking off over the next few weeks/,months as people start to see the story unfold.
To be honest I think everyone is a little nervous as there is news out in the public domain and even the company isn’t really aware of what it means. This is why we have some uncertainty over the SP.
Personally I think it’s been whittled down to two companies and I wonder if the contract will be split between them to spread any risk to the government. I also like the fact a pension fund from the country has invested into TLOU which just stands out as someone being in the know. I don’t think for one minute the Botswana pension fund would invest millions in TLOU if it didn’t have some kind of prior knowledge of what’s happening. I’m cautiously optimistic we are into the last leg and we will get at least a share of the reward. I think you’re then looking at a company worth hundreds of millions over time but Id expect ~20p fairly quickly. Although I could be way off the mark! lol
Ichi that's exactly my thoughts and I think they are spot on. Why rush into production when you are receiving >$500k a month and giving away your hand early will make it harder to negotiate a better % of the asset and terms on the licence. Wouldn't surprise me if the CPR is delayed further into June as you need to secure a larger % of the asset and better licence terms before showing CPR and flow rates.
Certainly one option but I suspect its never that straightforward.
I think there will be a licence renewal + debt written down for AAOG having 75/80% of the asset. This may lead to a farm out to a bigger player for a free ride.
There was a lot of ramping going up to the raise but that's my take on it don't expect everyone to agree. I think the asset has huge potential with lots of potential news for rerate.
Lots of different ideas on reserve numbers so it could well be company making especially if Djoan produces towards 5000bpd. Id love to see the report come back suggesting we produce from that zone and with some topside updates we go for it.
Is there already a CPR in place for the field and if so anyone got a link?
With fields in the area suggesting large discoveries from the Djeno it will be interesting to see what numbers come up from our discovery. Got a sneaky feeling there could well be some impressive increases in reserves.
Should see increased interest in the asset and production come on line in the next few weeks and then this company becomes a very different animal.
Wonder if we can secure funding without dilution to drill wells into the Djeno region. Just imagine two wells producing ~6000bpd from Djeno that's around $131m revenue. Even after taking out costs/share etc you would likely be ~£30m profit which would service any debt.
Sefton seems to be the weak link in all this as his ramping of the SP for the placing has left a nasty taste in peoples mouth. Hopefully with thinks looking to give him a stronger hand he wont shaft the shareholders.
Still drip selling into the market I don't think the big holders have finished. Thought it might have been this week but I think we have another 2 weeks of drip sells.
Waiting game for the sells to dry up and then hopefully the company will have some positive news about existing and new customers.
MC of company is ~£15m so to raise £10-20m they would have to offer a discount which would mean at least doubling the amount of shares in issue. I find this hard to believe at this point but this is AIM.
PMSL you lot need to lighten up a bit................
20p surely :-)
Agree Johnny but there will be some short sighted investors who will likely sell. Still in production so money is still coming in.
Top up for me if this drops as its all about the development of the recent asset which was funded by institutions with no dilution.
on no real news top up at 0.575 thank you very much
Jessell I'm purely stating that the current situation makes this interesting at the current SP. Obviously people who have been in this longer have not seen the benefit but AIM is littered with companies who promise the world and don't deliver. I've been shafted on shares over the last year in a challenging market so feel the pain of being a longer term holder.
Hopefully all will be rewarded over the coming months.
to see institutional investers getting in on this company. To be honest getting a deal like that for an AIM company in this market is a massive win in my eyes. Short term punters wont be interested as it doesnt give them a quick 10% but for those looking at the next few months this should build up nicely.
With the directors putting skin in the game as well speaks volumes.
Looks like an early stage SOU rerate to me and I could see this multiples in the short term.
You have just described 99% of AIM shares there I hope you are warning everyone on all those shares as well.
I also didn't state they had no debt I said minimal debt.
Looks to me like you have been stung in the past and the blinkers have come on. If you play AIM based on that mentality you'll struggle to find many AIM shares to gamble your money on!
Been in and/out of this over the years and in that time Arsenal you have been the one constant throughout it all. The amount of time/effort you must have put into this share/board over this time is worrying. Surely for a company you hate so much why on earth would you keep wasting so much time on here.
Anyhow back to the company in question! So I think its fairly obvious the company has spent 10's of millions of pounds over the years to get some land through the numerous legal hoops to finally get un-appealable planning. The key bit is that they have done this so as with anywhere on the planet a piece of land with planning permission is worth significantly more than without it. So at this point in time I think you have to look at the situation logically and decide on the risk:-
Pros:-
-Un-appealable planning
-Significant cash spent to get this to that point
-Value would be at least the MC of the company at ~£7m
-Directors taking pay in shares - Not sure they have ever done this so I suspect the end game is in sight
-minimal debt
-costs cut
-Interested parties
Cons:-
-Same directors bleeding the company
-Dilution needed to keep lights on but nothing too large
-Board balls the deal up or set themselves up and shaft the share holders
From my point of view I think in the past this was good for trading but at the current SP/timing I think the down side is limited and the upside multiples. As ever its difficult to put a price on the asset but with 10's millions spent on the application process makes you think its worth >£7m.
Basically its an invest and waiting game with this one but it could do 100/200% in a flash depending on the deal.
This is certainly a nail biter and I'm 50/50 as it stands. Lots of positives and negatives but with us hitting oil already the risk I feel is low. If we don't find anything further down then Ill buy on the drop as the production from higher up should mean a cash positive company.
Enjoy the ride all and don't over expose yourself just in case.