Member Info for goooba769

Agree I think we will see this really move north by end of October the latest. Aug/Sept I think we will start to see news and momentum which will push this to ~10p. Some positive news will then push this ~20p.
With copper/gold prices likely to increase significantly over the next year or so as a recession moves in by year end CHF is perfectly positioned to take advantage.
Accumulate now before everyone arrives!

Hand-some - I very much doubt it is as somple as opening it up and letting it flow. I expect there would be some work needed to optimise production from the Djeno region. They had plans for fracking from the upper regions but obviously this strategy is not the correct one for the Djeno.
Commons and changing plans have been a perfect storm for the shorters so I'm happy to top up around this level to bring my average down. I still think the asset is a massive game changer and flowing from the Djeno will transform the MC. I personally think we will get taken out or we will have a farm in partner for a reduced stake but I think we would need to negotiate it along the lines of SNPC 15%, AAOG 15% and big player 70%.

Tiburn - I did get the impression there could be big hitter interest. I think it will all hinge on the amount of the asset we hold. For example they might not be interested in 51% for covering all the costs but we may be trying to do a deal for example Big hitter 70% AAOG 15% and SNPC 15% for a free carry. This might be why we are seeing silence but who knows.

I don't have a problem selling if I wanted........

CPR is held up due to the fine details of the PSC being negotiated currently. This looks to be the only data they need so once that is concluded in the next few weeks the CPR can be completed relatively quickly and released.

If we can get a bigger proportion of the licence, better PSC terms and look to let 103 flow from Djeno then this company is going to rerate significantly.

With us currently very oversold any good news will see a rapid shift higher.

Lol thought I’d balance the trolls out.

Interesting update and day today. Lots of emotions flying about which may be clouding things for people but I think Sefton has handled the news poorly over the last few months. On the flipside I do think there are a lot of things going on in the background(around the licence etc) and also new data coming to hand on the well which is keeping things in constant flux. In basic terms he shouldn’t be giving specific time frames when there are so many variables going on. The second issue is investors these days can’t wait more than a week to get news and waiting months is like waiting a lifetime! Lol
The current market conditions and investor make this share difficult to decide on a buy in price but I’ll say ~8p is the right level so I’m loading up.

I still think they have a massive asset here and if we have to wait a few weeks/months to realise production from the Djeno region then I’m all for it. RNS mentions its flowing to surface so I would love to know what they are currently doing but I suspect that’s all a bit sensitive when negotiations are ongoing.

Certainly a mix of information from this RNS and I still believe this is all a game with regards the negotiations. I half expected a CPR in June or possibly later and this extra data seems like a good excuse to me.
So lets look at the positives and negatives:-
Negatives
CPR delayed
Extra costs incurred

Positive
2 independent specialists have highlighted production from Djeno is possible
Looking to produce from Djeno – Seems the two other targets were looking at 1500bpd we are looking at Djeno flowing more
High quality oil
Flowed to surface under own pressure
Continues to flow to surface
Payments received on regular basis from SNPC

People are being short sighted here and I think Djeno could be a monster in the making with >3kbpd

Standard AGM as you say and requesting more power to raise funds is also a normal. For example if they didn't have the power to raise and an opertunity came up for a deal or progress production at short notice then they would have to spend a few weeks getting an EGM together.

At some point funding will be needed no doubt but I think we will see a number of RNSs covering increased licence %, terms of licence concluded, CPR, production from top two levels(maybe the lower), possible farm in, etc

An on shore play with access to the lower level which could produce ~5000bpd from a well would be very interesting to medium/large companies. Usually its offshore these types of numbers where it costs a small fortune to drill and maintain.

Id love to see some sort of farm in for a free carry but we need at least 85% of the licence to make this interesting to others.

At this level I think its well worth the risk.

MrAim is clearly a paid deramper. Unfortunately these accounts exist to run shares down by repeating the same thing minute by minute, hour by hour, day by day.

Best to report him and hope the site takes action rather than give him the attention he's after.

Hopefully Bond. I don't like the BOD of this company but I think the potential of the asset could save them. Possible gem in the rough.

lol

This is panning out as I expected with news likely in June. CPR/Oil flow are not top of the list of things to come out until they have secured a larger share of the licence. Clearly there is a power play going on here so don't expect timelines to be hit as negotiations carry on. If there wasn't an increase in ownership on the table and there wasn't monthly payments coming in then timelines would have been hit or exceeded. This is a simple one where you wait for the negotiations to finish before we see news.

Tie in all the 3D sensing technologies(IQE) going into phones this could be massive in years to come. Logical next step will be back facing 3D scanning of environment on phones and uploading or even projecting 3D.

If there weren't shorters then we may never have come all the way down to ~10p. The risk at shorting now is way too high with potential bids for part/all coming in but on the flip side if things are dire and the company stops trading they are still liable to cover the short. Shorts will be closing now for sure and you will see the amount tumble from 6% in a short period. This could well push us back up to ~30p is my guess and if bids start coming in then we could be looking at much higher. Flip side though is it could equally go under and banks take control so only invest what you're willing to lose.

Enjoy the ride!!

At the minute this is all about power play and AAOG I recon have the upper hand as long as they don’t start to produce oil! If they don’t start producing then SNPC have to keep finding $600k a month to pay down their debts. The fact they have requested AAOG to open up on discussions around the payments makes me think they don’t want to be handing out that money every month so we have a slight upper hand. If we rush into production that means SNPC will start to receive money which they will use to pay AAOG which in turn means they hold the upper hand in negotiations as they don’t have to use their own money every month. This would mean we would likely get less of the asset. Same goes for the CPR in that if it comes out and has significantly increased that adds more bargaining to SNPC so again why would you rush it. Personally I don’t think we will see anything until these discussions are concluded whether that be 1/2/3 months time. Waiting a few months for 85% of asset I think is a small price to pay. Again why the rush when the $600k a month is paying the bills and some.

~10p looks like the baseline so as long as nothing negative comes along(very possible this is AIM after all) I can see a minimum of 20p in the next few weeks/months

Initital spike as expected and then as you say the investors will start to buy in. This is big news and company transforming. Can see this building back up to ~18p short term before we see a big push into new highs when new partners come in or we get taken out.

Noeasy good summary. I think this could be a few hundred million major in the making. Once we have the final sign off it would surprise me in the least to see a big partner come in or a possible takeover happen. When you consider all the money/time/effort its taken to get to this stage a cheeky £100m offer for example would secure access to power hungry nation with massive demand in years to come. Can really see this taking off over the next few weeks/,months as people start to see the story unfold.

Followed by a rerate back to >18p. :-)

Fill your pockets quickly train is about to leave

To be honest I think everyone is a little nervous as there is news out in the public domain and even the company isn’t really aware of what it means. This is why we have some uncertainty over the SP.
Personally I think it’s been whittled down to two companies and I wonder if the contract will be split between them to spread any risk to the government. I also like the fact a pension fund from the country has invested into TLOU which just stands out as someone being in the know. I don’t think for one minute the Botswana pension fund would invest millions in TLOU if it didn’t have some kind of prior knowledge of what’s happening. I’m cautiously optimistic we are into the last leg and we will get at least a share of the reward. I think you’re then looking at a company worth hundreds of millions over time but Id expect ~20p fairly quickly. Although I could be way off the mark! lol